Down goes the Dow

agip wrote:

From Igy's piece, a great quote - the lament of all permabears - the need to say they don't mind missing out on giant gains as long as they - eventuaaaaaaaalllllllllyyyyyyy get to laugh at long investors. Here Grantham says clearly he doesn't mind losing his and his investors money as long as he isn't made to feel foolish in a bear market. Well it's been13 years of bull market, Jeremy. You might want to feel a bit foolish.

I’ve been very clear about what I consider a definition of success – and that is only that, sooner or later, you will have made money to have sidestepped the bubble phase.

– Jeremy Grantham, GMO

In the event of a downturn, I'd rather have sizable unrealized gains with which to take profits, than the luxury of having to do nothing by virtue of avoiding the bubble.

picker wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

A view today from John Hussman:

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211120/

Wasted bandwidth.

“A critical piece of advice: learn the right lesson from this bubble. There’s no question that my own bearish response to overextended “limits” was detrimental in recent years, particularly in periods when our measures of market internals were constructive. The only truly “different” feature of the recent bubble is that zero-interest rates encouraged persistent speculation even in the face of previously reliable “overvalued, overbought, overbullish” conditions. One had to become content simply to gauge the presence or absence of speculative pressures, based on the behavior of market internals, without assuming any well-defined “limit.” That’s the right lesson to learn from a yield-seeking bubble driven by zero-interest rate policy.

In contrast, it’s dangerous and incorrect to imagine that the lesson of this bubble is to ignore valuations and market internals, and to dismiss overextended conditions even when both valuations and internals are unfavorable – as they are today. Imagining that every risk can be ignored because “Hussman was wrong” is a wild misinterpretation of an error that I openly admit, regularly discuss, and have adapted our discipline to address. It’s always amusing that people think they know me for being a “permabear,” when the fact is that investors wouldn’t even know my name if our approach hadn’t been so successful in navigating decades of complete market cycles, prior to the Federal Reserve’s deranged foray into zero-interest rate policy during the recent incomplete half-cycle.”

—John Hussman, Commentary of 11/22/2021

You may be able to navigate the bursting of this bubble, but it is impossible for investors as a class.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

It’s always amusing that people think they know me for being a “permabear,” when the fact is that investors wouldn’t even know my name if our approach hadn’t been so successful in navigating decades of complete market cycles, prior to the Federal Reserve’s deranged foray into zero-interest rate policy during the recent incomplete half-cycle.”

—John Hussman, Commentary of 11/22/2021

I hope readers found the humor in that.

seattle prattle wrote:In the event of a downturn, I'd rather have sizable unrealized gains with which to take profits, than the luxury of having to do nothing by virtue of avoiding the bubble.

Is it an either / or situation? We are *mostly* spectating from the sidelines with a very comfy cash position in our investment accounts. And yet we are up over 10% on the year. Which I realize is pretty pathetic relative to "shoulda coulda woulda," but it is more than enough for me, when balanced against the chance of giving up a couple of years (or more) of post-retirement travel.

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:In the event of a downturn, I'd rather have sizable unrealized gains with which to take profits, than the luxury of having to do nothing by virtue of avoiding the bubble.

Is it an either / or situation? We are *mostly* spectating from the sidelines with a very comfy cash position in our investment accounts. And yet we are up over 10% on the year. Which I realize is pretty pathetic relative to "shoulda coulda woulda," but it is more than enough for me, when balanced against the chance of giving up a couple of years (or more) of post-retirement travel.

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

@hussmanjp

·

4h

One thing is certain: there will be regret. If you clip exposure and the market advances, you’ll regret clipping anything. If the market collapses, you’ll regret not clipping more. Key question: given expected return, risk, and uncertainty, what's your acceptable level of regret?

John Hussman wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

It’s always amusing that people think they know me for being a “permabear,” when the fact is that investors wouldn’t even know my name if our approach hadn’t been so successful in navigating decades of complete market cycles, prior to the Federal Reserve’s deranged foray into zero-interest rate policy during the recent incomplete half-cycle.”

—John Hussman, Commentary of 11/22/2021

I hope readers found the humor in that.

“Well, on Friday, November 19, we hit the motherlode. Across four decades of work in the financial markets, and over a century of historical data, I’ve never observed as many historical indications of a market peak occurring simultaneously. Noise reduction is always a process of drawing a common signal from multiple, partially correlated sensors, even if each individual sensor might be imperfect. The reason that we follow boatloads of these syndromes is the same reason we base our gauge of market internals on thousands of securities – uniformity conveys information.

Emphatically – and this is important – my intent here is not to “call the top” of this bubble. Yes, this is a bubble in my view. Yes, I believe it will end in tears. Yes, the price investors pay for a given stream of future cash flows is inseparable from the long-term returns they can expect. Yes, if this bubble is ever to actually have a top, this would be a perfectly reasonable moment to expect one. Still, my present intent is simply to share what we’re observing.”

—John Hussman, 11/22/2021 Commentary

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:In the event of a downturn, I'd rather have sizable unrealized gains with which to take profits, than the luxury of having to do nothing by virtue of avoiding the bubble.

Is it an either / or situation? We are *mostly* spectating from the sidelines with a very comfy cash position in our investment accounts. And yet we are up over 10% on the year. Which I realize is pretty pathetic relative to "shoulda coulda woulda," but it is more than enough for me, when balanced against the chance of giving up a couple of years (or more) of post-retirement travel.

Can only speak for myself, but given that situation, I would consider myself particularly well situated to buy the dip and similarly, less pressured to protect cost basis.

seattle prattle wrote:... I would consider myself particularly well situated to buy the dip and similarly, less pressured to protect cost basis.

Well, that's what we were aiming for... :-D

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Yes, the price investors pay for a given stream of future cash flows is inseparable from the long-term returns they can expect.

—John Hussman, 11/22/2021 Commentary

They don’t call me Captain Obvious for nothing! LOL

Quick! Everyone run to the same side of the boat!

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1462904226280087562?s=21

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:... I would consider myself particularly well situated to buy the dip and similarly, less pressured to protect cost basis.

Well, that's what we were aiming for... :-D

Hey, thinking this through:

downturn > some heavily invested market participants sell, taking profits > stocks go down further> new round of investors buying in, setting themselves up a new bull cycle at an advantageous point of entry (cost basis).

A lot would depend on one's investment horizon as to where they would expect to need to take profits, should there be any to take.

Kind of simplistic, but given a good assessment of time horizons, ample opportunity for favorable returns might be realized. I do not ascribe to the belief that for every winner in a trade, there is a loser.

Seven out of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through November 22, 2021. The top performer is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 27.99%, is in second is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 25.82%, and our own S&P 500 is in third with a gain of 24.86%. Coming in last is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a loss of 8.37%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/11/22/world-markets-update-november-22-2021?utm_source=boomtrain&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign&utm_content&utm_term&bt_ee=ST3IqcsUalimL8fqt37A9NXHj%2FO6Obd3E6IAaT%2F99RGXqq3nvaE6dGxv4M8tTLOE&bt_ts=1637675486959

SARK😘

https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/SARK#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

Will the Manscape SPAC be an erection lasting more than four hours, or shrivel up in a severe case of ED?😷

Hipster (ARKK) stocks continue to take a beating:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-11-23_7-34-09.jpg?itok=ucoytuyW

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Will the Manscape SPAC be an erection lasting more than four hours, or shrivel up in a severe case of ED?😷

Finally Igy comments on something he actually knows about. 😅

You’re actually the type of guy that is so insecure to shave their balls.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You’re actually the type of guy that is so insecure to shave their balls.

Correct. I have never shaved my balls. I’m not much of a tea bagger.