Down goes the Dow

Hi, for long term automatic investing would M A G A (MSFT, Apple, Google, Amazon) be better than VTI?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Not surprising result in my view. The bubble will continue to expand as long as investors believe that the Fed controls markets.

Not surprising in my view either, but for a different reason.

investing noob wrote:

Hi, for long term automatic investing would M A G A (MSFT, Apple, Google, Amazon) be better than VTI?

Igy is the M A G A expert here, but he is busy getting his butt kicked on another thread right now.

all time high SP500

all time high nasdaq

all time high nasdaq

agip wrote:

all time high nasdaq

all time high tech

small cap is within a fraction of a percent of an all time high

Hussman, off about 3% to 4%

I heard growth this year is exceeding previous estimates.

all time highs for sp500 and nasdaq

I really hate it when the market does this.

It makes all the work we do to diversify look stupid.

Just buy the Qs, the most expensive, overowned stocks, and leave everything else alone, the market says.

Makes performance comparisons hard against the SP500.

1 month

Tech +8

USA +3

Non-US Devlped -1

Emerging -1

agip wrote:

I really hate it when the market does this.

It makes all the work we do to diversify look stupid.

Just buy the Qs, the most expensive, overowned stocks, and leave everything else alone, the market says.

Makes performance comparisons hard against the SP500.

1 month

Tech +8

USA +3

Non-US Devlped -1

Emerging -1

Call me an idiot, but that has been my long held strategy.

Pare your losses, let your winners ride, and even add to them.

The strategy seems legitimized in what i read a little while ago - something to the extent that all the market gains over a long enough time period are due to a very small percentage of the gainers.

seattle prattle wrote:

agip wrote:

I really hate it when the market does this.

It makes all the work we do to diversify look stupid.

Just buy the Qs, the most expensive, overowned stocks, and leave everything else alone, the market says.

Makes performance comparisons hard against the SP500.

1 month

Tech +8

USA +3

Non-US Devlped -1

Emerging -1

Call me an idiot, but that has been my long held strategy.

Pare your losses, let your winners ride, and even add to them.

The strategy seems legitimized in what i read a little while ago - something to the extent that all the market gains over a long enough time period are due to a very small percentage of the gainers.

yeah, that's the right strategy, based on returns.

tech, tech, tech.

We've all been taught to diversify and to watch for pendulum swings...but tech seems to violate those rules.

Risk-adjusted it's hanging out there over the edge, but it's worked amazingly well.

10 year returns, annualized

US tech: +21%

USA +15%

Global 60/40 +8

Non-US developed +6

Emerging +4

Bonds +3

I'm there at the +8% level. Which is a great return, but geez...+21% per hear FOR TEN YEARS.

good hearing these stats, and as i've said before, it truly does contribute to my understanding of the market.

Tried to figure my annualized for 10 year but my brokerage only lets me go back five years (and I'm not about to start digging out old statements), and with that, let's just say, even the tech annualized return has nothing on me.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2021 (with 18 S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 15 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 17 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2021 (with 18 S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 15 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 17 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

Apologies for the dupe.

Earnie wrote:

Apologies for the dupe.

somethings janked up with their server, when you hit POST, it lags out, and unbeknownst to you, it is actually posting it even though it doesn't appear so.

if you hit control+f5 windows will do a hard clear on the webpage and that solves the problem

Let's go long term today....10 year returns, annualized, including dividends.

in 2011 the market was pile of garbage...had gone nowhere since 1998 or so. A few headfakes to new highs, but in a decade-long channel.

Then things got interesting.

BTC +116%/year

TSLA +61

AMZN +33

MSFT +27

GME +23

Tech +22

Cons Discr +19

Health Care +16

Retail +15

SP500 +15

USA +15

Industrials +13

Small Caps +13

Financials +13

Value +12

Cons Staples +11

REITS +10

Materials +10

Utils +10

Global 60/40 +8

Corp bonds +6

High Yield +5

Non-US Developed +6

Emerging +4

Treasuries +4

TIPS +3

Gold +1

Energy 0

Hussman -5

It's been a tech rally, no doubt. But even value went up 12%/year, which is more than I would have guessed.

Weird that high quality corp bonds outdid junk

Consumer discretionary stands out

60/40 returning 8% is pretty good considering relatively low risk

Emerging has been a heckhole of miserable returns, and non-US developed not much better

So the question is...does the pendulum swing and non-US stocks start outperforming the US?

Portfolio theory might suggest that yes, that will happen.

But maybe this is different, given COVID, the strength of tech and the soon to start shrinking population in europe and china. US too, of course.

In any case, I suspect this has been one of the best 10-year stretches in investing history. 15% per year is really good.

I should add this:

US-Only 60/40: +10%

Global 60/40: +8%

that triggers all the 'rebalance' thoughts in my head. I mean come on...is that really sustainable, USA?