OMG, I totally wish Paula Radcliffe gets caught/outted.

Didn't you just give us a Guardian link where one of the authors told us the big problem with 44%, and they revised their estimate to 30% to address that problem?

casual obsever wrote:

No hope for a clean sport? wrote:

Wow!...that's mind-bogglingly: "44%" ?

On the championship athletes: Is that gold medalists or all medalists, and "championships" meaning Olympic & World Championship competitions, as well as indoor championships, national championships, etc.?

That was at the IAAF World Championship in Daegu, likely underestimated, averaged over everyone including the also-rans who didn't reach their semifinals/finales.

From the Seppelt/Sunday Times leak we know that medal winners had more suspicious blood values than the also-rans, and that among the medal winners the gold medalists were the worst - not exactly surprising, as PEDs literally help by definition.

Only 30% drug cheats? What? Big problem? LOL - I hope the Guardian did not screw that up, and repeated that stupid IAAF propaganda.

Here, cited in full, is the complete Results part of the abstract of the peer-reviewed original work (WCA: Word Championships in Athletics 2011; PAG: Pan-Arab Games 2011):

Everyone can check that under DOI 10.1007/s40279-017-0765-4.

43.6% (correctly rounded to 44%), not 30%. Stop trolling me.

Prof. Pielke Jr. summarized that article in a 2018 paper in Sports Med as follows:

43.6% (correctly rounded to 44%), not 30%. Stop trolling me.

Go with the scientists, not the propaganda, and not the interpretation from selected journalists (if they even said that).

rekrunner wrote:

I know I'm always the contrarian, but I think if Keitany had run a more even London 2017, rather than a 66:54 and 70:07 positive split, she would have scared the record.

I don't read too much into the East Africans not coming close yet over 15 years. Outside of Keitany, I don't think the women East Africans have really tried to break it yet. Given the recent number of fast half-marathon performances by around 10 women, plus a bunch of 2:18s this year and 2:17s last year, it might come sooner than you think.

Okay then....what's your take on Jeptoo's full throttle performance @ Boston 2014? A fully loaded Jeptoo ran the 5th fastest marathon of all-time (2:18:57) and yet it was over a full 3 mins slower than the WR!

Here's another one for you rekrunner: Liliya Shobukhova was fully loaded @ Chicago 2011 (153 off-score! ?) and ran what was at that time the 2nd fastest marathon of all-time (2:18:20) and yet it was 3 mins slower than the WR! (Shobukhova's time would be the 5th fastest of all-time still today). It's interesting how these two confirmed dopers ran near identical PBs doped.

Now, lets look into the philosophy of the Russians: They say you can't win without pharma (which is to say you basically can't run fast times needed to win big titles, medals, etc.) and the Brits say you can win without PEDs. So, what do you think? Who's right here...the Russians or the Brits? And if the Russians are wrong and you can win big without PEDs, any thoughts why the Russians were (and possibly still are) embedded in a decades long systematic doping philosophy & methodology? Though history they've led the world in doping positives, ABP sanctions (35+) and corruption. And yet over history they've won big in athletics.

Josh Hamilton's Addiction wrote:

She holds one of the strongest WRs in a sport in which most the women's world records are considered dirty. I think there's no doubt that the EPO elves were helping her build an impressive marathon career. How great would it be to see this board's (rojo's specifically) reaction to Paula getting caught? I truly hope that day comes.

I heard awhile back that she had unusually high pain tolerance which meant that she could run hard for longer than any other woman. I have no idea how you measure it but supposedly that’s what she had... really high pain tolerance.

rekrunner wrote:

I know I'm always the contrarian, but I think if Keitany had run a more even London 2017, rather than a 66:54 and 70:07 positive split, she would have scared the record.

If memory serves me correctly, the 1st or 2nd 5km is downhill and throws out nearly everyone, that's why they can never get the pace judgement right in the 2nd half.

Do you know what a bell curve is. I’m presuming you aren’t from the mid-west and do.

Paula Radcliffe is an outlier. She is the fastest marathon runner of her gender. What’s so hard to understand.

It’s totally irrelevant if runner A ran 2:18 and runner B ran 2:19. It’s totally irrelevant.

What matters is that Paula ran the WR. Was tested to the hilt and passed all tests, and had still passed retrospective testing.

She is the GOAT. God bless the Queen. No go back and stroke the egos of your 2:25 girls. ??

Pain threshold wrote:

I heard awhile back that she had unusually high pain tolerance which meant that she could run hard for longer than any other woman. I have no idea how you measure it but supposedly that’s what she had... really high pain tolerance.

The only actual "natural" talent available to a runner.

There must be an answer wrote:

Now, lets look into the philosophy of the Russians: They say you can't win without pharma (which is to say you basically can't run fast times needed to win big titles, medals, etc.) and the Brits say you can win without PEDs.

Isn't it safe to say now that the Kenyans are doping just as much as the Russians given all the positive tests they keep throwing out these days? Looking at Team Sky I would say that the Brits, in cycling at least, are implying that it is impossible to win unless you are taking high doses of asthma medications ...

Name Substance Suspension Period Notes

Atalelech Asfaw Ephedrine 5-18-14 to 5-17-16

Cody Bidlow Growth hormone releasing factors (GHRFs) 08-09-16 to 08-08-20

Mark Block Various Anti-Doping Rule Violations 1-1-09 to 1-1-19

Kayla Bushey Ostarine and Arimistane 12-19-16 to 12-19-18

Andrew Carnes Synthetic Erythropoietin (EPO) 10-25-13 to 10-24-15

Chris Carter Ostarine 03-13-17 to 12-13-17

Thomas Cawley Growth hormone (GH) releasing factors (GHRFs), GH-releasing hormone (GHRH) analogs, and synthetic growth factors 06-16-16 to 06-15-20

Marcus Clavelle Methandienone 08-23-02 to 08-23-04

Michelle Collins Conspiracy and cover-up 12-09-04 to 07-17-08 Reinstatement Pending

Jessica Cosby-Toruga Extrogenous Androgenic Anabolic Steroids 09-12-16 to 09-11-22

Brian Coushay Amphetamine 09-09-15 to 09-08-17

Crystal Cox Conspiracy and cover-up 01-26-10 to 01-25-14

Shawn Crawford Three Whereabouts Failures in 18 month period 04-17-2013 to 04-16-2015

Royce Dates Ostarine, and tampering, administration and complicity 11-08-17 to 11-08-21

Walter Davis Three Whereabouts Failures in an 18 month period 04-16-14 to 04-15-15

Matthew DiBuono Adverse CIR 08-17-11 to 01-14-16

Reginald Dixon Three Whereabouts Failures in an 18-month period 05-30-14 to 5-29-15

Trey Downing Refusal to Test 5-29-2013 to 11-28-2014

Jon Drummond Possesion, trafficking, and administering 12-17-2014 to 12-16-2022

Byron Duhon Refusal to Test 10-21-11 to 10-2-20-13

Debbie Dunn Anabolic Androgenic Steroids 08-01-12 to 08-01-14

Marquise Goodwin Three Whereabouts Failures in 12 month period 04-01-17 to 04-01-18

Alvin Harrison Undetectable Steroids and Erythropoietin (EPO) 10-18-04 to 10-18-08

Calvin Harrison Modafinil 07-26-04 to 07-26-06

Scott Henning Methandienone 05-02-02 to 05-02-04

Christian Hesch Erythropoietin (EPO) 09-26-12 to 03- 26-14

Jeremy Hicks Three Whereabouts Failures in an 18 month period 06-05-14 to 06-04-15

Cottrel J. Hunter Nandrolone Metabolites 03-08-01 to 03-08-03 Retired 03-08-01

Kathy Jager Adverse CIR 9-26-11 to 9-25-13

Regina Jacobs Tetrahydrogestrinone 07-17-04 to 07-16-08 Retired 08-02-04

Mark Jelks Three Whereabouts Failures in 18 Month Period 08-31-10 to 08-23-12

Marion Jones Admitted having used a prohibited substance 10-08-07 to 10-07-09 Retired 11-09-07

Lisa Knoblich Failure to provide sample 04-14-98 to 04-14-00

Trell Kimmons 1,3-dimethylbutylamine 04-14-16 to 04-13-18

Tod Long Nandrolone 12-20-01 to 12-20-02

Chris Lukezic Failure to provide sample 08-31-10 to 08-31-12 Retired 04-29-10

John McEwen Tetrahydrogestrinone and Modafinil 04-19-04 to 04-19-06

Timothy Montgomery Admitted having used a prohibited substance 06-06-05 to 06-06-07

Darien Moore Methandienone metabolites epimetendiol, 17-epimethandienone and 17β-hydroxymethyl-17α -methy-18-norandrost-1, 4,13-trien-3-one 03-04-17 to 03-03-21

Nicholas Mossberg Growth hormone releasing factors (GHRFs) 04-25-16 to 04-24-20

Cliff Nielson Growth hormone (GH) releasing factors (GHRFs), GH-Releasing Hormone(GHRH) analog modified GFR (1-29), GH Secretagogue (GHS) impamorelin, and GH Releasing Peptide (GHRP) GHRP-2 04-26-17 to 04-25-21

Imani Oliver Ostarine 07-07-16 to 07-06-17

Liz Palmer 17β-hydroxymethyl-17α-methyl-18-norandrost-1,4,13-trien-3-one 03-05-16 to 09-04-19

Vikas Patel Ostarine 01-27-17 to 01-27-21

Greg Pizza Exogenous anabolic steroid 09-11-15 to 05-10-17

Tori Polk Peptide hormones, growth factors, related substances and mimetics 04-25-16 to 04-25-18

Quintaveon Poole Methylhexaneamine 07-27-14 to 01-26-15

Mitchell Pope Boldenone Metabolite 01-15-09 to 01-15-11

Brianna Rollins Three Whereabouts Failures in 12-month period 12-19-16 to 12-18-17

Serene Ross Hydrochlorothiazide and Triamterene 07-27-06 to 07-27-08 Retired 01-26-06

Jonathan Sanford Ostarine 06-02-17 to 06-02-18

Stephen Craig Shumaker Adverse CIR 9-9-11 to 9-8-13

Wallace Spearmon Methylprednisolone 8-27-14 to 11-26-14

Eric Thompson Benzoylecgonine 07-18-07 to 07-18-08

Kevin Toth Tetrahydrogestrinone 05-03-04 to 05-03-06 Retired 02-17-04

Mohamed Trafeh Repeated use and possession oferythropoietin (EPO) and evading sample collection 12-02-14 to 12-01-18

Jordan Vaden Stanozolol 02-04-09 to 02-04-11

Atlanta Westbrook Ostarine, and tampering and complicity 10-31-17 to 10-31-21

Kelli White Undetectable Steroids and Erythropoietin (EPO) 05-17-04 to 05-16-06 Retired 08-03-06

Kenna Wolter Ostarine and methylstenbolone 12-13-16 to 12-13-18

Jason Young Growth hormone releasing factors (GHRFs) 11-17-16 to 11-16-20

Moran’s everywhere . Well said. Spot on !

Morans everywhere wrote:

Paula Radcliffe is an outlier. She is the fastest marathon runner of her gender. What’s so hard to understand.

...

What matters is that Paula ran the WR. Was tested to the hilt and passed all tests, and had still passed retrospective testing.

Quite sure that most people understand that she "is the fastest marathon runner of her gender".

Other facts: she did not pass any "retrospective testing". She also was no outlier prior to 2002 and post 2005. In these four magical years though, after turning 28, she ran her 5000 m and 10000 m PRs (remember Munich 2002?) and two marathon world records. After she got target-tested for the 2nd time (in 2005), and the EPO test became more reliable, she couldn't even run a 2:22 anymore (2006 - 2012).

Right - the marathon is her specialty. But only until 2005. Also, which other elite runner ran a 5000 m PR while in marathon training at age 30?

casual obsever wrote:

Here, cited in full, is the complete Results part of the abstract of the peer-reviewed original work (WCA: Word Championships in Athletics 2011; PAG: Pan-Arab Games 2011):

[quote]ResultsThe estimated prevalence of past-year doping was 43.6% (95% confidence interval 39.4–47.9) at WCA and 57.1% (52.4–61.8) at PAG. The estimated prevalence of past-year supplement use at PAG was 70.1% (65.6–74.7%). Sensitivity analyses, assessing the robustness of these estimates under numerous hypothetical scenarios of intentional or unintentional noncompliance by respondents, suggested that we were unlikely to have overestimated the true prevalence of doping.

You are wasting your time. Triple first-class PhD super statistician Rekrunner has already explained that scientists do not present the important part of their results in the abstract of a scientific paper ....

From your reply it is pretty obvious that you are mentally challenged. Or willfully ignorant....

You might want to go back and read what was posted about Paula and her record.

That's all well and good, but the question was if you recently provided us a link to the Guardian. I checked and the answer is yes, in the Travis Tygart thread. In that article that you linked , everyone could see that 43.6% then leads us to a big question, according to co-author Andrea Petróczi (identified in the study as the "Principal Investigator"): "The big question is, how sure can we be that athletes were actually compliant and they understood and they followed the instructions and answered as they were told?" Then the Guardian's Nicola Davis gives us a new estimate from "the team": "the team estimate that at least 30% of athletes at WCA ... doped in the last year." As you can see, it was not "IAAF Propaganda", but the "Principal Investigator" of the study asking the "big question" that arises from 43.6%. Everyone can check that under DOI 10.1007/s40279-017-0765-4, they will also find the big question being asked, and how the answer is that it doesn't present a serious problem if you revise the estimate by eliminating "fast responders" to eliminate the large 12%-point positive bias. This is the source of the various "~30%" estimates that accompany nearly every description of the study. I think I will "go with" the Principal Investigator of the study, and the detailed contents in the study, and its detailed supporting appendices.

What's my take? Surely I've answered this a dozen times already. To put the value I place on these anecdotes in perspective, take the time to google "proof by example". Having said that , if Paula doped to get 2:15, then my "take" is that such results should be easy to replicate over the course of a decade and a half, given the presumed effectiveness of blood doping, and wide prevalence. You see 2:18:xx as evidence of success, but I see your best possible cherry-picked doping candidate success stories as a failure to run 2:17, or 2:16, or 2:15. If we ignore Paula for a second, before 2017, only two runners could beat Ndereba's 2:18:47 from 2001, by a marginal 10 seconds, and slightly larger 27 seconds. This doesn't sound to me like the expected or predicted result of a powerful, works for top elites, hard to detect, widely abused, endurance drug. And what happened in the doping landscape since 2017, when 6 more women have suddenly run faster than Ndereba. Did prevalence suddenly increase? Effect? Did detectability decrease? When this is coupled with no real evidence of abnormal blood values for Paula in 2002 or April 2003, and the Sunday Times reporting that 8 out of 9 World Championship and Olympic marathon medals were won by athletes that never recorded high blood values, I'd say the evidence of doping to win medals, or run fast world level elite performances in the marathon, needs some fortification. This philosophy of the Russians is evidence of a profound faith and belief. Their level of "winning" is far below their level of "doping".

How does any ** clean ** athlete DOMINATE other athletes who rely on PEDs who themselves and are supremely genetically-predisposed for marathon running?

Ben Johnson similarly demonstrated the benefit of drugs when he dominated Lewis and Christie.

How? wrote:

How does any ** clean ** athlete DOMINATE other athletes who rely on PEDs who themselves and are supremely genetically-predisposed for marathon running?

Ben Johnson similarly demonstrated the benefit of drugs when he dominated Lewis and Christie.

Simple, she was actually THAT much better. It happens dude in all walks of life where someone has a genetic makeup that tops all others.

How did Michael Phelps win 28 medals, 23 of them Gold? How come no one could stop him? With your logic, he had to be on drugs of some sorts.

No one will ever know for sure, but until there's 100% indisputable proof, she's innocent.

60 minutes Part Deux wrote:

How? wrote:

How does any ** clean ** athlete DOMINATE other athletes who rely on PEDs who themselves and are supremely genetically-predisposed for marathon running?

Ben Johnson similarly demonstrated the benefit of drugs when he dominated Lewis and Christie.

Simple, she was actually THAT much better. It happens dude in all walks of life where someone has a genetic makeup that tops all others.

How did Michael Phelps win 28 medals, 23 of them Gold? How come no one could stop him? With your logic, he had to be on drugs of some sorts.

No one will ever know for sure, but until there's 100% indisputable proof, she's innocent.

So she was better than all the other highly-trained elite athletes that were on drugs? So she must have been other-worldly better. Nah.

I can't imagine Carl Lewis beating Ben Johnson on drugs. EVER. And Miss Radcliffe isn't a Lewis- like prodigy. Not by a country mile.

It's probably worth describing what the different figures represent, so we can be sure we are not comparing apples to oranges to bananas. The survey results of the World Championship in Daegu: - includes sprinters, field athletes as well as distance runners - includes all kinds of prohibited substances So, let's say for example, if the doping prevalence of sprinters and fielders using steroids and testosterone is high, while the blood-doping prevalence is much lower, e.g. the IAAF's estimate of ~14%, this will not be possible to see in a single doping prevalence result of the overall World Championship events. (The Pan-Arab games results are even further, as they include athletes from 28 different sports) 1 in 7 "also ran" athletes are suspicious: Similar to the discussion above, the IAAF blood samples comes from athletes from endurance events, and non-endurance events But it only includes blood-doping (high blood values) and not other doping which could impact performance, without impacting blood values In a similar analysis, with many of the same blood samples (but obviously not through 2012), the 2011 IAAF prevalence study (DOI: 10.1373/clinchem.2010.156067 Published April 2011 ), we can see many statistics regarding the composition of the IAAF blood samples: - prevalence figures are for samples, not for athletes - overall sample prevalence was estimated at 14% (which matches the 1 in 7 statistic above) - 79% of the samples are from endurance events, while 21% are from non-endurance events - doping prevalence for non-endurance events was 1-3% - doping prevalence for endurance events was higher, at 18-19% (almost 1 in 5) - overall male doping prevalence was 12%, while female prevalence was 18% 1 in 3 "medals" were won by a "suspicious" athlete": As previously noted in other threads, 1 in 7 athletes is a ratio of athletes, while 1 in 3 medals is a ratio of medals won. The "suspicious" metric here is that the athlete had one "suspicious" or at the very least "abnormal" value in the database, not necessarily correlated with the medal win. So if someone won a medal in 2001, and legitimately went to high altitude in 2012, that counts the same as a career doper. Looking at the Sunday Times analysis: - 2 out of 9 distance events are race-walking, and a third is "heptahlon and decathlon". The rest are endurance. - Non-endurance sports are not represented in the medal count, but are represented in the blood sample database. - Men and women's medal counts are combined. - If an athlete took steroids and blood doped, any success due to steroids and not to blood doping, will be reflected in the medal win percentage (e.g. women on steroids) - The top three events are 1500m (which could be influenced by steroids, especially for the women), and the two race-walking events, at 54%, 52%, and 48% respectively. - The ratio declines as the events get longer, with 5000m at 28%, 10000m at 28%, and the marathon -- the event in question for Paula - is only at 11%

casual obsever wrote:

That was at the IAAF World Championship in Daegu, likely underestimated, averaged over everyone including the also-rans who didn't reach their semifinals/finales.

From the Seppelt/Sunday Times leak we know that medal winners had more suspicious blood values than the also-rans, and that among the medal winners the gold medalists were the worst - not exactly surprising, as PEDs literally help by definition.