Yes, genius, I was referring to that post. Are you that creep, Carl Rose? Then I'm all for the mods banning you.
I'm pretty sure you've posted under many different handles in this thread. You're reminding me of the woman creep that is all over the Blowing Rock couple. Why are some runners so creepy? Please take up bowling.
Scary to think we could lose 10 years a la Japan. Even scarier is that US is better positioned to handle the crisis then the Europe and much of Asia.
what??? wrote:
I'm with Flagpole.
It's not about having rosy glasses, but yeah, we KNOW that the DOW is crashing, banks are failing, yadda yadda, so what, should we just cry and despair? I like Flagpole's calm and positive attitude much better. He's acting like a man actually, unlike the crybabies on this thread.
This is...wait for it...CORRECT!!! Nice job brother.
There's so much resistance of 6500.
We just saw a bounce at 6501.49.
"Here's hoping you didn't miss the bottom of the market..."
LOL - Great call on that one, brother.
roflcopter wrote:
"Here's hoping you didn't miss the bottom of the market..."
LOL - Great call on that one, brother.
Do jokes always go right over your head? Flagpole was skewering the mentality of looking for the bottom, not saying he was looking for the bottom. Flagpole, like any long-term investor doesn't care where the bottom is.
Awwww I'm just funnin on the title of the thread. =)
But if you look at the first post, he was pretty confident that it was a good time to buy... despite being riddled with the usual caveats and what ifs.
The past 2 years I've been sticking primarily with physical metals and the GLD ETF until the markets bottom out. We've a ways to go yet, I think.
I believe we have seen todays high (+/- 20pts)
JohnDow,AnytownUSA. wrote:
I believe we have seen todays high (+/- 20pts)
generic prediction
roflcopter wrote:"Here's hoping you didn't miss the bottom of the market..."
LOL - Great call on that one, brother.
Well in a few weeks it's gone from 6500 to 7775.
With the massive increases in money supply we've seen recently, this shouldn't surprise us. Inflation will be coming shortly. The stock market is getting a jump on price increases elsewhere.
Don't worry about bottoms; worry about your dollars becoming worthless.
Chumundley wrote:
roflcopter wrote:"Here's hoping you didn't miss the bottom of the market..."LOL - Great call on that one, brother.
Well in a few weeks it's gone from 6500 to 7775.
With the massive increases in money supply we've seen recently, this shouldn't surprise us. Inflation will be coming shortly. The stock market is getting a jump on price increases elsewhere.
Don't worry about bottoms; worry about your dollars becoming worthless.
I have to totally agree about the dollar. It's a shame really. Hard times are on the horizon.
Looks rough for a bit here as of today in the stock market also. Obama apparently influenced GM's CEO to resign and now there's talk of doing what should have been done all along by letting the giant get bankruptcy protection in order to get some much needed order. Tell me again why we wasted all that money earlier when this current action was inevitable.
again wrote:
I have to totally agree about the dollar. It's a shame really. Hard times are on the horizon.
Looks rough for a bit here as of today in the stock market also. Obama apparently influenced GM's CEO to resign and now there's talk of doing what should have been done all along by letting the giant get bankruptcy protection in order to get some much needed order. Tell me again why we wasted all that money earlier when this current action was inevitable.
Because we forgot to call you to get your opinion.
You should have. Is this Barry? Getting kind of late isn't it?
Hey Flagpole, at the risk of re-initiating an unnecessary and monotonous diatribe, I thought you might find the following snippet from Bill Gross from CNBC this morning interesting. And while I don't personally like the guy and I believe Pimco is part of the hammer that is politically compromising Geithner's plan to salvage their own mammoth bond positions in these insolvent institutions, he is a very smart man and his MACRO perspective uttered here is very similar to my own --what I've been trying to say on here for MONTHS now -- the double digit unemployment, the SURPRISE of a less inflationary environemnt than is popular opinion now, the sub-par RISK-adjusted returns for equities. Watch the video. The editorializing is incomplete:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30028434
By the way, I went back and did some total return analysis (TRA) on Bloomberg, and bonds have underperformed equities in real terms over the past 40 years. We just ended a 25-year reign of unchecked credit expansion, and while this administration is foolishly trying to expand credit and start the same wheels churning again of getting banks to assume INORDINANT risk and lend into a secularly unfavorable, deflationary environment (which I find somewhat hypocritical), let's see where we are in 15 years and then you can do your own retroactive TRA over the past 40 years (the typical time frame for wealth accumulation).
Geez.... what I meant to say was bonds have *outperformed equities in real terms over the past 40 years....And Gross's outlook for subpar growth is lookng increasingly likely in the wake of the G-20, the push for more zealous regulation, the policy ACTUALITY (not media platitudes) of more isolationism, of continued misallocation of capital. Regardless of what equities do over the next few years, what is the correct multiple to asssign equities in Gross's "new normal?"
Sagarin wrote:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30028434By the way, I went back and did some total return analysis (TRA) on Bloomberg, and bonds have *underperformed equities in real terms over the past 40 years. We just ended a 25-year reign of unchecked credit expansion, and while this administration is foolishly trying to expand credit and start the same wheels churning again of getting banks to assume INORDINANT risk and lend into a secularly unfavorable, deflationary environment (which I find somewhat hypocritical), let's see where we are in 15 years and then you can do your own retroactive TRA over the past 40 years (the typical time frame for wealth accumulation).
I see that flagpole is deleting posts again.
Flagpole wrote:
Remembering that the markets are forward-looking, note that the S&P 500 hit a low of 752 on Nov. 20. Right NOW it is at 904. That is about a 20% increase since then. The DOW had hit 7,400 and is right now at 8,800. That is also about a 20% increase.
Still lots of volatility perhaps (and likely), but there could also be a slow steady rise. Who knows? If it's a slow and steady rise, too many people who are waiting for that right time to enter the market will just be lulled into non-action. By the time they finally feel like getting back in, the DOW will be above 10,000 -- a far cry from the low of 7,400, and too late to take advantage of this super low market.
Of course maybe the DOW will drop to 5,000 as a handful of "experts" have predicted. Again, who knows? This is why you don't try to time it.
Bad news exists still, and I can see it, so don't try to paint me as all good news and no bad, but lets look a the GOOD news:
1) Mortgage applications are up higher than they have been in 5 years.
2) Those filing for unemployment benefits dropped below 500,000 when that big of a drop was NOT expected.
3) Unemployment is still below 7%.
Those who have said housing drives the economy may have been proven right, and if they are indeed right, with the mortgage applications going up and rates and prices at super lows, that should encourage more to buy a home. When that housing crisis ends and the Treasury bubble bursts (and both will happen) then the market will again move northward and the unemployment rate will drop.
For those of you who continued to buy stocks when the DOW was at 7,400, congrats. Those purchases will be worth a ton when you are ready to retire (assuming that's at least 10 years away).
Here's hoping you big financial gains in 2009.
- Flagpole
LOL
Flagpole wrote:
Unemployment is still below 7%.
Sorry, Flagpole Willy, but you're just flat out wrong on this one.
Umm...it was when I wrote that. Check the date brother.
Calling you out wrote:
Flagpole wrote:Unemployment is still below 7%.
Sorry, Flagpole Willy, but you're just flat out wrong on this one.
BUMP!