Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Yes frustration tolerance is the order of the day. If you recall within the past week I posted that the Bulls could push the market beyond the Fib 61.8% (2940~) to 3,000 or more.
Good call. SPX closed near the Fib 61.8% on Friday. A close above 2937-ish Monday would indicate that this is Wave 5. If Wave 5 = Wave 1, that would be 3357! The FOMO crowd seems to be driving the market now. The next resistance is 3135-ish, assuming we get past 2937.
fisky wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Yes frustration tolerance is the order of the day. If you recall within the past week I posted that the Bulls could push the market beyond the Fib 61.8% (2940~) to 3,000 or more.
Good call. SPX closed near the Fib 61.8% on Friday. A close above 2937-ish Monday would indicate that this is Wave 5. If Wave 5 = Wave 1, that would be 3357! The FOMO crowd seems to be driving the market now. The next resistance is 3135-ish, assuming we get past 2937.
Oh, and I just noticed that 3136 is Fib 78.6%. I didn't catch that at first.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Nothing short of amazing that the S&P and other indices are only down 11% ytd.
We were probably due for a correction in that magnitude even if nothing had happened.
Checked my portfolio and i am off my highs by that same amount. I can live with that. Still can't believe it, but I'll take it.
All i can figure is that this has been such a long run-up, there was a tremendous amount of cash waiting for an opportunity for an entry point, and this certainly availed itself in a big way.
Here is a realistic view of the market. Really could not say it better myself. Short video a little over 30 minutes. Have a good weekend.
Igy
https://northmantrader.com/2020/05/09/straight-talk/
Obviously not everyone would consider that a “realistic view”.
As discussed on the video most want to ignore facts. Too uncomfortable. So the market moves higher and get more disconnected from reality. If one thinks that turns out well, then OK. We’ll see how it progresses.
fisky wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Yes frustration tolerance is the order of the day. If you recall within the past week I posted that the Bulls could push the market beyond the Fib 61.8% (2940~) to 3,000 or more.
Good call. SPX closed near the Fib 61.8% on Friday. A close above 2937-ish Monday would indicate that this is Wave 5. If Wave 5 = Wave 1, that would be 3357! The FOMO crowd seems to be driving the market now. The next resistance is 3135-ish, assuming we get past 2937.
What may be a challenge for the Bulls is narrow leadership and realities of the re-opening of the economy. Fed and fiscal stimulus masked the economic negatives short term. Will that hold in time to push to new highs, or does a new grind lower unfold over the coming months?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
As discussed on the video most want to ignore facts. Too uncomfortable. So the market moves higher and get more disconnected from reality. If one thinks that turns out well, then OK. We’ll see how it progresses.
One man’s facts are another man’s folly.
An AAPL a day keeps the doctor away.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
As discussed on the video most want to ignore facts. Too uncomfortable. So the market moves higher and get more disconnected from reality. If one thinks that turns out well, then OK. We’ll see how it progresses.
The facts are not the issue. It is the interpretation.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
As discussed on the video most want to ignore facts. Too uncomfortable. So the market moves higher and get more disconnected from reality. If one thinks that turns out well, then OK. We’ll see how it progresses.
I've come to the conclusion that that if we totally shut down the whole economy - all stores closed, all factories closed, all e-commerce halted - then the stock market would really soar.
Paper assets represent real value? Just trade stock symbols exchanging electronic dollars magically created by the Fed and politicians. No worries.
Just wanted take a second to brag about buying AMC at $2.12 last month.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/11/amc-shares-soar-50-percent-on-report-of-talks-with-amazon/
Still climbing farther and farther from 1100, with not quite 8 months left in the year... nearly at 3000 again today. Where do we end up come end December?
the idiot wrote:
Still climbing farther and farther from 1100, with not quite 8 months left in the year... nearly at 3000 again today. Where do we end up come end December?
I'd be plenty happy just to hold onto the rebound we've experienced and maintain current levels. But am prepared to give back a little bit.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
As discussed on the video most want to ignore facts. Too uncomfortable. So the market moves higher and get more disconnected from reality. If one thinks that turns out well, then OK. We’ll see how it progresses.
Do you have all (or almost all) of your money out of the stock market at this time?
THE VIX WAS AT 80 SIX WEEKS AGO AND I DID NOT BUY
I think that is the key to this amazing rally - a vix at 80 is such a stunning number that a massive rally was almost guaranteed. Unfortunately, I'm not a good enough investor to have realized it at the time. The boat was so massively leaning to port, almost capsized, that when it started moving back to starboard, this is what the move had to look like. Equal and opposite.
It's trillions of dollars being bet against the market evaporating and institutions being forced to take off their hedges. Day by day. When that process ends, the ship will right and fundamentals will again matter.
I do expect the ship coming back to neutral to hurt (the nasdaq should not be up on the year) but lordy.
The mother of all short squeezes.
the idiot wrote:
Still climbing farther and farther from 1100, with not quite 8 months left in the year... nearly at 3000 again today. Where do we end up come end December?
Ah, but the but leadership is narrow and a fail again today at FIB 61.8%.
By the way the bet is 1500. 1100 is fair value. :)
Yeah the bet is 1500, but you’ve been calling confidently for 1100. Even you must not like your chances for that by the end of the year...
Just Wundrin wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
As discussed on the video most want to ignore facts. Too uncomfortable. So the market moves higher and get more disconnected from reality. If one thinks that turns out well, then OK. We’ll see how it progresses.
Do you have all (or almost all) of your money out of the stock market at this time?
Yes. The market is forward looking. I am waiting for the market to look at a corporate tax raise and S&P 500 GAAP $80 EPS for 2021. ?
the idiot wrote:
Yeah the bet is 1500, but you’ve been calling confidently for 1100. Even you must not like your chances for that by the end of the year...
It is more likely not less. Wait until the reality hits on a variety of factors far too numerous to mention.