Gruntz wrote:Sally should be scared given that you are almost 70 and in debt.
Announcing that you know another poster's family members' name is sociopathically passive aggressive.
arse hole
Gruntz wrote:Sally should be scared given that you are almost 70 and in debt.
Announcing that you know another poster's family members' name is sociopathically passive aggressive.
arse hole
Euro markets up 1/2 to 1+1/2 points.
Go Tesla. Open big
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
A post from one of my friends:
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1258368929963130880
After the South Sea bubble burst in 1720, the consumption of gin doubled in London the very next year. Maybe we should invest in gin.
the idiot wrote:
Gruntz wrote:Sally should be scared given that you are almost 70 and in debt.
Announcing that you know another poster's family members' name is sociopathically passive aggressive.
arse hole
Igy has made it no secret that his wife’s name is Sally. Please try to keep up.
Also, it is not required that you sign your posts, though I appreciate your honesty.
Fellah's let's not forget that Sunday is MOTHER'S DAY, and regardless of who's wife it is, let's offer up a little appreciation to the special ones in our lives who, as we most certainly know, put up with us regardless of our many faults.
And no, it is not cancelled this year due to Covid.
Sunday. Plan accordingly.
Fair enough. Looks like it is carry out Italian or BBQ at our house. Maybe Saturday rather than Sunday. We’ll see. “Sally” calls the shots in consultation with the kids, I’m the Grub Hub delivery guy.
PRD but on a different computer wrote:
Don’t visit this thread wrote:
I think you’re trying to predict or assess what’s happening way too much. How are you so sure that April’s performance was driven by bunch of millennials or new investors rushing back in? It’s just too hard to predict.
Who cares if there’s more probability of falling 10% than rising 5% in short term if you’re long term investor? Even if you’re right, what does that prediction matter if you’re long term investor?
You should just keep the money in and don’t think too much of it. Just remember to rebalance your portfolio annually.
As you’ve been witnessing the volatility, what may happen is that you sell, and you are right the market drops, and it may drop a lot. But it could quickly surge back up where you may end up buying back higher than what you sold for. Or you don’t time it right and you just end up buying back not much cheaper than what you sold it for.
Or, you may get it right and buy back at the absolute bottom. Problem with that is you’ll continue to time the market and over the long run, you’ll find out that you would have made a lot more money by just not messing with it. Just leaving the money parked except for annual reallocation is all you need to do.
I understand all that. I am a buy and hold investor 95% of the time. I sold about 30% of my index fund when the market rose to 2880 because from everything I can tell, at that level it is EXTREMELY overbought. Everything I can find supports that idea as well. I would not have sold anything had it been lower than that. The fact the market is dropping now supports that idea also, though I expect it to be a step-wise drop back down to 2600 or lower. I have no illusions about being able to perfectly time the bottom and dumping all my money in on exactly the right day, but when the ratio of price to value of something is the highest ever in history (including all the other bubbles and bear markets), you can be confident that ratio will return to the mean some.
I agree buy and hold is the best strategy under more normal conditions. For most people, I would suggest it's what they do 100% of the time. I have reasons to believe I am more capable than the average investor, however. Not a lot better, but better enough under the current circumstances to warrant my actions. Of course I could be wrong. I'll let you know where I'm at 3 years from now. ;)
S&P 500 is above 2880. Are you going to buy back in at a higher price now? Or, wait for a drop? How much of a drop? What happens if it only drops to about 2,700? Is that enough of a drop? What happens if S&P is above 3,000? Would you buy then? Or, are you certain it will drop back down?
I have no clue so i'll just stay in the market. Hopefully 20 years from now, it'll be much higher that it won't matter.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Fair enough. Looks like it is carry out Italian or BBQ at our house. Maybe Saturday rather than Sunday. We’ll see. “Sally” calls the shots in consultation with the kids, I’m the Grub Hub delivery guy.
Some excellent ideas, there. Not easy coming up with something, in that i don't go into any stores during all this, though may be able to entice our son into helping.
Don't visit this thread wrote:
PRD but on a different computer wrote:
I understand all that. I am a buy and hold investor 95% of the time. I sold about 30% of my index fund when the market rose to 2880 because from everything I can tell, at that level it is EXTREMELY overbought. Everything I can find supports that idea as well. I would not have sold anything had it been lower than that. The fact the market is dropping now supports that idea also, though I expect it to be a step-wise drop back down to 2600 or lower. I have no illusions about being able to perfectly time the bottom and dumping all my money in on exactly the right day, but when the ratio of price to value of something is the highest ever in history (including all the other bubbles and bear markets), you can be confident that ratio will return to the mean some.
I agree buy and hold is the best strategy under more normal conditions. For most people, I would suggest it's what they do 100% of the time. I have reasons to believe I am more capable than the average investor, however. Not a lot better, but better enough under the current circumstances to warrant my actions. Of course I could be wrong. I'll let you know where I'm at 3 years from now. ;)
S&P 500 is above 2880. Are you going to buy back in at a higher price now? Or, wait for a drop? How much of a drop? What happens if it only drops to about 2,700? Is that enough of a drop? What happens if S&P is above 3,000? Would you buy then? Or, are you certain it will drop back down?
I have no clue so i'll just stay in the market. Hopefully 20 years from now, it'll be much higher that it won't matter.
I understand your mentality, but there are times when completely turning off your brain in regards to the market and economy is not the best move. In general it is essentially impossible to predict the market, but there are times when things are so obviously out of whack that anyone giving a look at things can tell things are not right. I'm listening to a book on Buffett right now, and he called the dot com crash 2 years before it happened and was increasingly accurate about it as the market approached the peak. It was very obvious to any half-astute investor. Now is again one of those times.
Typically markets don't go up after half the businesses in town go bankrupt...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-06/majority-of-u-s-small-businesses-expect-to-close-survey-says?utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&fbclid=IwAR2pAQSJ-9gTrR89SHTBlkj76UyoiWkXtzVonm-MIR0s8LEXej1QQdIBiEEPRD wrote:
Don't visit this thread wrote:
S&P 500 is above 2880. Are you going to buy back in at a higher price now? Or, wait for a drop? How much of a drop? What happens if it only drops to about 2,700? Is that enough of a drop? What happens if S&P is above 3,000? Would you buy then? Or, are you certain it will drop back down?
I have no clue so i'll just stay in the market. Hopefully 20 years from now, it'll be much higher that it won't matter.
I understand your mentality, but there are times when completely turning off your brain in regards to the market and economy is not the best move. In general it is essentially impossible to predict the market, but there are times when things are so obviously out of whack that anyone giving a look at things can tell things are not right. I'm listening to a book on Buffett right now, and he called the dot com crash 2 years before it happened and was increasingly accurate about it as the market approached the peak. It was very obvious to any half-astute investor. Now is again one of those times.
Typically markets don't go up after half the businesses in town go bankrupt...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-06/majority-of-u-s-small-businesses-expect-to-close-survey-says?utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&fbclid=IwAR2pAQSJ-9gTrR89SHTBlkj76UyoiWkXtzVonm-MIR0s8LEXej1QQdIBiEE
It's so obvious that it's out of whack, but not so sure it's easy to predict which way the market will go. I don't think it was so obvious to anyone that April was going to be one of the best months ever.
Buffett calling dot com bubble two years in advance is not that good as the final two years prior to the crash was one of the biggest increases so he would've missed out. Also, if you're reading on Buffett's investments, he admits that he can't predict the market in short term.
Also, I'm not completely turned off on investment. I constantly pay attention on great companies to invest in. I am heavily invested, but I don't go in and out of position to try to time it short term. I've done that in the past and learned from it.
I hope you get it right with how obvious the market will go from here. However, if it's so obvious, everyone would be filthy rich. I'm just trying to help you retire early, but it's probably best for you to learn your own mistakes and go from there. Everyone thinks they're smarter than the market, but time and time again, it's proven that you're better off staying invested, add more as you can, and rebalance your portfolio.
Don't visit this thread wrote:
PRD wrote:
I understand your mentality, but there are times when completely turning off your brain in regards to the market and economy is not the best move. In general it is essentially impossible to predict the market, but there are times when things are so obviously out of whack that anyone giving a look at things can tell things are not right. I'm listening to a book on Buffett right now, and he called the dot com crash 2 years before it happened and was increasingly accurate about it as the market approached the peak. It was very obvious to any half-astute investor. Now is again one of those times.
Typically markets don't go up after half the businesses in town go bankrupt...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-06/majority-of-u-s-small-businesses-expect-to-close-survey-says?utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&fbclid=IwAR2pAQSJ-9gTrR89SHTBlkj76UyoiWkXtzVonm-MIR0s8LEXej1QQdIBiEEIt's so obvious that it's out of whack, but not so sure it's easy to predict which way the market will go. I don't think it was so obvious to anyone that April was going to be one of the best months ever.
Buffett calling dot com bubble two years in advance is not that good as the final two years prior to the crash was one of the biggest increases so he would've missed out. Also, if you're reading on Buffett's investments, he admits that he can't predict the market in short term.
Also, I'm not completely turned off on investment. I constantly pay attention on great companies to invest in. I am heavily invested, but I don't go in and out of position to try to time it short term. I've done that in the past and learned from it.
I hope you get it right with how obvious the market will go from here. However, if it's so obvious, everyone would be filthy rich. I'm just trying to help you retire early, but it's probably best for you to learn your own mistakes and go from there. Everyone thinks they're smarter than the market, but time and time again, it's proven that you're better off staying invested, add more as you can, and rebalance your portfolio.
You talk like someone who has never even heard the term "bubble" before. Most people do not pay attention or know anything about investing or economics. Most of the time, it is better to passively invest, buy and hold, but there are times when the markets/investors behave very irrationally/stupidly, and it is obvious to anyone with a little knowledge and experience. Also, if you cared to look at the actual numbers, you'd see Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway performed WAY better from 1998 to 2002 than the S&P 500.
Generally, no, no one can predict the markets. When the Buffett indicator is at an all time high, personal debt is at an all time high, 52% of small businesses expect to go out of business within 6 months, unemployment is double digits, etc etc etc, however, I honestly think you'd have to be delusional or just downright stupid to think we are going to continue going up from here in the short-medium term. Levels might stagnate, I'm not suggesting there's going to be an enormous drop like Igy, but it is going to be years before we see 3386 again. Given your typical year sees 20% or more between the high for the year and the low, I feel strongly we will see another dip. Of course I could be wrong. I am hedging my bets though by having some cash on the sidelines.
To each investor their own strategy.
Gruntz wrote:
[quote]the idiot wrote:
[quote]Gruntz wrote:Sally should be scared given that you are almost 70 and in debt.
Igy has made it no secret that his wife’s name is Sally. Please try to keep up.
I propose that the next person who says try to keep up be banned from commenting in the future.
Mein Gott wrote:
I propose that the next person who says try to keep up be banned from commenting in the future.
I think more people would rather see you banned.
PRD wrote:
Don't visit this thread wrote:
It's so obvious that it's out of whack, but not so sure it's easy to predict which way the market will go. I don't think it was so obvious to anyone that April was going to be one of the best months ever.
Buffett calling dot com bubble two years in advance is not that good as the final two years prior to the crash was one of the biggest increases so he would've missed out. Also, if you're reading on Buffett's investments, he admits that he can't predict the market in short term.
Also, I'm not completely turned off on investment. I constantly pay attention on great companies to invest in. I am heavily invested, but I don't go in and out of position to try to time it short term. I've done that in the past and learned from it.
I hope you get it right with how obvious the market will go from here. However, if it's so obvious, everyone would be filthy rich. I'm just trying to help you retire early, but it's probably best for you to learn your own mistakes and go from there. Everyone thinks they're smarter than the market, but time and time again, it's proven that you're better off staying invested, add more as you can, and rebalance your portfolio.
You talk like someone who has never even heard the term "bubble" before. Most people do not pay attention or know anything about investing or economics. Most of the time, it is better to passively invest, buy and hold, but there are times when the markets/investors behave very irrationally/stupidly, and it is obvious to anyone with a little knowledge and experience. Also, if you cared to look at the actual numbers, you'd see Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway performed WAY better from 1998 to 2002 than the S&P 500.
Generally, no, no one can predict the markets. When the Buffett indicator is at an all time high, personal debt is at an all time high, 52% of small businesses expect to go out of business within 6 months, unemployment is double digits, etc etc etc, however, I honestly think you'd have to be delusional or just downright stupid to think we are going to continue going up from here in the short-medium term. Levels might stagnate, I'm not suggesting there's going to be an enormous drop like Igy, but it is going to be years before we see 3386 again. Given your typical year sees 20% or more between the high for the year and the low, I feel strongly we will see another dip. Of course I could be wrong. I am hedging my bets though by having some cash on the sidelines.
To each investor their own strategy.
Have you thought of what you see as so "obvious" has already been priced in? It's no secret of what's happening with the economy right now with unprecedented unemployment rate, small businesses going out of business, etc. So, the March low could have been the bottom. I have no idea though. Neither do you.
All I'm saying is that when you try to time the market too much, you'll do worse than just staying in. If everything is so obvious to you, why didn't you sell in February? And then buy back in at end of March? It was so obvious that Coronavirus was such a big deal, why didn't you do this? It's so easy to tell in hindsight.
Keep doing what you're doing though. I've been enjoying my assets continue to grow over long term by being in the market as I can't predict what's going to happen in short term. In the meantime, I'm just enjoying another great week of gains!
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through May 7, 2020. The top performer is China's Shanghai with a loss of 5.86%. our own S&P 500 is in second with a loss of 10.82% and in third is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a loss of 14.93%. Coming in last is France's CAC 40 with a loss of 24.70%
Nothing short of amazing that the S&P and other indices are only down 11% ytd.
We were probably due for a correction in that magnitude even if nothing had happened.
Checked my portfolio and i am off my highs by that same amount. I can live with that. Still can't believe it, but I'll take it.
All i can figure is that this has been such a long run-up, there was a tremendous amount of cash waiting for an opportunity for an entry point, and this certainly availed itself in a big way.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2020 (with 86% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 66% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 58% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
seattle prattle wrote:
Nothing short of amazing that the S&P and other indices are only down 11% ytd.
We were probably due for a correction in that magnitude even if nothing had happened.
Checked my portfolio and i am off my highs by that same amount. I can live with that. Still can't believe it, but I'll take it.
All i can figure is that this has been such a long run-up, there was a tremendous amount of cash waiting for an opportunity for an entry point, and this certainly availed itself in a big way.
I am back to new highs.
Thanks to an early bail-out as the melt down began and to buying Tesla a few weeks ago
[quote]Karz 4 Kidz wrote:
[quote]Mein Gott wrote:
Nowhere in the Kars4Kids ads (in most states) does the charity inform potential donors of how their car donations will help kids. A visit to the “
; website displayed at the end of the TV commercial is similarly vague as to how kids will benefit, simply encouraging people to “take action” for the “1.2 million kids [that] leave school without a diploma each year” by volunteering to “mentor, fundraise, advocate or run an awareness campaign.”
When going to the website address shown in the TV commercial, only by scrolling all the way down to the fine print that includes Kars4Kids’ copyright notation at the bottom of the page will donors eventually learn what activities their donated cars support: “Your donation will benefit Kars4Kids, a national organization dedicated to addressing the educational, material, emotional and spiritual needs of Jewish children and their families [emphasis added].”
seattle prattle wrote:
Nothing short of amazing that the S&P and other indices are only down 11% ytd.
We were probably due for a correction in that magnitude even if nothing had happened.
Checked my portfolio and i am off my highs by that same amount. I can live with that. Still can't believe it, but I'll take it.
All i can figure is that this has been such a long run-up, there was a tremendous amount of cash waiting for an opportunity for an entry point, and this certainly availed itself in a big way.
Here is a realistic view of the market. Really could not say it better myself. Short video a little over 30 minutes. Have a good weekend.
Igy
https://northmantrader.com/2020/05/09/straight-talk/