Down goes the Dow

The forward-looking market has already priced in 200,000 US dead, it’s not a problem lol.

Buffett “There was a period right before the Fed acted, we were starting to get calls. They weren’t attractive calls...after Fed acted, a number of (firms) were able to get money in the public market frankly at terms we wouldn’t have given”

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

KeIIy wrote:

No, I am not where I was 2, or 5, years ago. If you understood how investing in the markets works, you would know why. And even if I was back there, I would still be ahead of you.

You were not ahead of me on March 23rd. I am assuming that trend will reassert itself, but we shall see.

You have no idea where I was on March 23, just as you have no idea how any of this works. But keep trying to move the goalposts. It just reveals your pathetic desperation.

Market was slightly down all day until the last hour-ish. I'm surprised. Futures are currently up too. It's one day though. I still think we will see 2799 by the end of next week if not this week and 2599 in the next 6 weeks, but really who knows. I still say it is very unlikely we see 3000 anytime soon, probably not until 2021, but then I wasn't expecting to see 2900 until the end of the year also.

As for airlines, I don't know who the heck is still holding American. Even if we got a vaccine tomorrow I would not feel comfortable investing in AAL right now. Their financials are terrible. Given how terrible they look on paper right now, I feel a bit more confident in my positions with the other airlines. As far as I can tell, of the big names, Southwest is best off, then Delta, then United. United and Delta aren't actually all that different, though United shares are down significantly more. I hold Spirit and Alaska also, and their situations seem to be not as good as Southwest but better than United. What I don't get is SkyWest is down 60% even though it has some of the highest profit margins of any airlines I could find and seems to have a decent balance sheet. It's also small and flies domestic connection flights for bigger airlines. Zero Boeing airplanes in its fleet... Seems like it'd be a decent buy, but I can find almost zero articles even mentioning the airline.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:OK, where was your portfolio on March 23?

If you think that matters today, I don't know what to tell you...

Why is Market Watch so negative? No matter what's going on, their lead articles are nearly always someone predicting a big disaster.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Why is Market Watch so negative? No matter what's going on, their lead articles are nearly always someone predicting a big disaster.

Doom sells and people love to eat it up in both directions.

Perma-bears need justification for narratives they've been clutching to for the past decade.

On the other end of the spectrum, you'll find people who fall hook-line-and-sinker for the faux doom. 90% of the comments are people talking about how dumb the article is and how wrong the author has it. It's like some weird version of Cunningham's Law that boomers are particularly susceptible to.

Of course the worst economic crisis in your life time is a reason to buy stocks. Central banks will make sure there is no pain, even for the millennial.

The Depression had so many false bottoms that the Exchange was rated as quiet as a vegetable stand.

By the mid-30, I mean.

Mid-1930s...

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Of course the worst economic crisis in your life time is a reason to buy stocks.

Agreed.

I wouldn't be surprised with how market reacts because it's unpredictable short term. You're going to regret few years down the road for going in and out position now and realize later that you were better off just staying invested and adding more money whenever you can.

It's better to just continue to accumulate asset and eventually, it will start snowballing as your asset will become massive.

Also, investing in airline stocks, I'm not sure I see the upside. I think you may be able to get a quick gain, but long term, I think it will underperform compared to investing in great companies from like FAANG or companies like Salesforce or Chipotle.

I used to be like you of jumping in and out, as well as buy stocks that's been beaten down thinking they're good values. They're good values for a reason.

It's similar to how cost of living in great places like Southern California is expensive. It's expensive for a reason. It's awesome and will continue to be desirable so wouldn't be surprised if cost of living continues to climb. You can get great value living in places like Indiana. But it's cheap for a reason and will never get expensive to live there as if it gets too expensive, there are plenty of alternatives where it's cheaper to grow. So, my analogy is that don't be afraid to buy stocks that seem expensive like Amazon as there's great chance that it will continue to climb as it will be desirable stock 10, 20 years from now.

Buy low, sell high wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Of course the worst economic crisis in your life time is a reason to buy stocks.

Agreed.

Except you have no idea when the bottom is. Some people were calling for Dow down to 15,000. So, if you were waiting until then, you would have missed out. Maybe it will go down to 15,000 though. I have no idea. It's best to stay invested and continue to add more as end goal is for you to accumulate appreciating asset that you can tap into when you're older.

Time in the market is more important than timing the market.

Biggest reason for Warren Buffet's massive wealth is simply the time in the market. At age 43, his net worth was $34 million. That's great, but he's now worth around $72 Billion. That's a massive increase as he's had 46 years to grow it.

Don't visit this thread wrote:

Buy low, sell high wrote:

Agreed.

Except you have no idea when the bottom is. Some people were calling for Dow down to 15,000. So, if you were waiting until then, you would have missed out. Maybe it will go down to 15,000 though. I have no idea. It's best to stay invested and continue to add more as end goal is for you to accumulate appreciating asset that you can tap into when you're older.

Time in the market is more important than timing the market.

Biggest reason for Warren Buffet's massive wealth is simply the time in the market. At age 43, his net worth was $34 million. That's great, but he's now worth around $72 Billion. That's a massive increase as he's had 46 years to grow it.

“Buy low” does not necessarily mean at the bottom.

I understand the sentiment that trump & the fed will prop up financials without much concern over pandemic deaths, but I don’t believe they can separate the two or control the situation. Science & biology are too fundamental.

On top of that stocks are extremely overvalued on the belief that fundamental economic principles in place for over 4,000 years have been replaced by “new age” metrics. Of course that is the same nonsense that has been repeated at every bubble since before the Pyramids were built.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

On top of that stocks are extremely overvalued on the belief that fundamental economic principles in place for over 4,000 years have been replaced by “new age” metrics. Of course that is the same nonsense that has been repeated at every bubble since before the Pyramids were built.

Historically valuation has contributed less than 10% to a stock’s price.