Down goes the Dow

Surprised at the EOD mini rally. Glad to be in cash. Feel like now we'll revisit the lows.

Script for the sucker’s rally follows form.

A rally is a rally. Why wouldn’t a smart investor take advantage of it?

Answer: Most sell at a lower price, hence the name “sucker’s rally.”

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Answer: Most sell at a lower price, hence the name “sucker’s rally.”

I don’t think you can prove that.

OK, but the Tech Bubble and GFC played out exactly that way. So think what you wish. No skin off my nose.

Or Musk is simply crazy for tanking Tesla 10%.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

OK, but the Tech Bubble and GFC played out exactly that way. So think what you wish. No skin off my nose.

I’d love to see your evidence for that. Or are you still just making stuff up?

jesseriley wrote:

Or Musk is simply crazy for tanking Tesla 10%.

You think Musk controls the market?

Mein Gott wrote:

jesseriley wrote:

Or Musk is simply crazy for tanking Tesla 10%.

You think Musk controls the market?

Jesse is mad that Musk called the lockdowns fascist. Jesse sees them as the first step in ushering in the totalitarian government that he’s dreamed of for decades, and he doesn’t want the peasants getting wind of it too early.

Roh wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

OK, but the Tech Bubble and GFC played out exactly that way. So think what you wish. No skin off my nose.

I’d love to see your evidence for that. Or are you still just making stuff up?

No man, you supply evidence that it is not true.

15-25% bear market rallies are common. Testing or even exceeding prior lows is still very much possible if not probable. Ray Dalio (and others) have said this will be as bad or worse than 2008 (which had about a 60% drop from highs). That would put the S&P500 at 1354... Even a 40% drop (less than what we had in both the last big recessions) would put the S&P500 at 2032... I am thinking it is going to be a long, slow recovery back up to February highs.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-bounce-bear-2008-comparison-downside-ahead-bank-america-2020-4-1029119356

Couldn’t be happier that Elon thinks Tesla is overpriced lol. He probably thinks that when he makes it to Mars the reduced gravity will get him even higher on that weed he smokes.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Roh wrote:

I’d love to see your evidence for that. Or are you still just making stuff up?

No man, you supply evidence that it is not true.

You made the claim, so the burden of proof is on you. The fact that you cannot support your statement with any evidence forces me to conclude that you made it up.

Berkshire Hathaway sold ALL of its airline stocks. Expect massive selling of American, United, Southwest, and Delta come Monday. I would also expect another 1-3% drop for the S&P 500 as well, probably a dip of 5% or more by the end of the week as reality starts to set in for other sectors (such as oil) and the economy as a whole. Things are going to start to get ugly again.

Kind of kicking myself for buying airlines 6 weeks ago after they had come up a bit from their lows. Though I still think they won't all go bankrupt, it would not surprise me if they all test or surpass their previous drops. Gonna have to make some tough calls myself as I decide whether to take some significant losses, average down, or simply hold and cross my fingers each airline will survive. The one good thing I have in my favor here is that I bought in when each airline was down 50% or more, so even if half of the companies I own go bankrupt, I'll still break even assuming the other half recover to previous highs (I know that will take years). With downsizing of airlines over the next several years, I would not want to have any association with Boeing right now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warren-buffett-says-berkshire-sold-its-entire-position-in-airlines-because-of-the-coronavirus.html

Yeah, no attractive investments for all his cash, a dark note.