Stanley Morgan wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
AMZN misses EPS....now, begin to spin the narrative....
They should hire you for that spin. You are wrong so often that you’ve gotten pretty good at it.
Fixed.
Stanley Morgan wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
AMZN misses EPS....now, begin to spin the narrative....
They should hire you for that spin. You are wrong so often that you’ve gotten pretty good at it.
Fixed.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
AMZN misses EPS....now, begin to spin the narrative....
Covid related costs cut into profits. Maybe a temporary set back but good ultimtely for the company and its workers.
Bezos said of this:
"If you’re a shareowner in Amazon, you may want to take a seat, because we’re not thinking small. Under normal circumstances, in this coming Q2, we’d expect to make some $4 billion or more in operating profit. But these aren’t normal circumstances. Instead, we expect to spend the entirety of that $4 billion, and perhaps a bit more, on COVID-related expenses getting products to customers and keeping employees safe. This includes investments in personal protective equipment, enhanced cleaning of our facilities, less efficient process paths that better allow for effective social distancing, higher wages for hourly teams, and hundreds of millions to develop our own COVID-19 testing capabilities. There is a lot of uncertainty in the world right now, and the best investment we can make is in the safety and well-being of our hundreds of thousands of employees. I’m confident that our long-term oriented shareowners will understand and embrace our approach, and that in fact they would expect no less."
Stanley Morgan wrote:
Stanley Morgan wrote:
They should hire you for that spin. You are wrong so often that you’ve gotten pretty good at it.
Fixed.
Your investments bit the dust...ha, ha...you stupid sap...
both amzn and apple trading relatively flat. Given the recent run-ups for both, I'll take it. Long term buy and hold quality companies, leader in their industries, works. Long and strong, my friends!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Stanley Morgan wrote:
Fixed.
Your investments bit the dust...ha, ha...you stupid sap...
Which investment was that?
fisky wrote:
Don't visit this thread wrote:
Here are my holdings and in which i'll keep adding to my positions and reallocate once a year to move more to bond.
But this is what i hold.
Equity:
AAPL
AMZN
CMG
COST
CRM
MSFT
NFLX
PINS
PRPL
QQQ
RDFN
ROKU
SHAK
TSLA
Bond:
BND
BNDX
VCIT
I love holding bonds as when there's a downturn, i do break my rule a bit where I do allocate some of my bonds to buy more stocks, but not in a big way. I'll still keep about 30% in bonds though.
I've read your followup posts. You might want to look into TMFC ETF. I didn't realize it existed until a month ago.
It's the Motley Fool top 100 fund. It's heavily weighted into about 10 stocks... AAPL, Amazon, Facebook, and I forget the rest. You can look it up. It has outperformed the S&P and Dow ETFs.
Thanks for letting me know about this ETF. Expense ratio is higher compared to SPY or QQQ, but researching about the fund, it has similar vision as me, so when I reallocate and re-balance my annual portfolio, I'm going to start moving some to this ETF. I appreciate you letting me know!
seattle prattle wrote:
both amzn and apple trading relatively flat. Given the recent run-ups for both, I'll take it. Long term buy and hold quality companies, leader in their industries, works. Long and strong, my friends!
Exactly. Who cares what's going to happen tomorrow or the next week.
If you see long term success with the company and willing to hold it for at least next 10 years, it doesn't matter what happens tomorrow.
Seeing Ghost of Igloi's constant warnings of the fall, you'll miss out on decades of great performance.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Don't visit this thread wrote:
Yes, it did shrivel up on 3/23/2020! No doubt about it, but I kept at it.
See how well this post ages? At what timeline? You've been calling the market to go down for at least 5 years if not longer. If you call every year that it will go down, you'll get it right eventually.
And about how well my post ages, there's 100% chance that market will tumble again. I just don't know when. It might be tomorrow. Next month. in 6 months. In a year. I have no idea. So, whenever market tumbles, are you going to bring my post up?
For the sake of everyone else who are trying to time the market by listening to you, I'm telling them to just stop. If you try to get rich quick from the market, you'll most likely fail. You may get some wins, but in the long run, you will most likely fail. However, if you invest long term with right stock/bond allocation, you will do well and as your asset start to accumulate, that's when you'll really start to see your portfolio grow.
You and Peter Schiff are the worst. Anyone who listened to you or him didn't accumulate as much as you could have and definitely did worse than just S&P500.
You have misinterpreted my posts if you think I am anti-stock. In terms of your view, it mirrors the current market thought, so you have plenty of company. We’ll see how accurate that is. Best wishes.
Igy
You may not be anti-stock, but you sure are great at picking the losers.
As well as from your posts, you sure love to sit out with lots of cash or try to time the market. It has been proven over and over that timing the market will result in lower returns. From your posts, you have proven that you have missed out on so much gains. Whether or not you like stocks or anti-stocks, your investment strategy just sucks.
You could have actually owned a 911 instead of Cayman... lol ok, that was low blow. I know how great Cayman is.
Don't visit this thread wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
both amzn and apple trading relatively flat. Given the recent run-ups for both, I'll take it. Long term buy and hold quality companies, leader in their industries, works. Long and strong, my friends!
Exactly. Who cares what's going to happen tomorrow or the next week.
If you see long term success with the company and willing to hold it for at least next 10 years, it doesn't matter what happens tomorrow.
Seeing Ghost of Igloi's constant warnings of the fall, you'll miss out on decades of great performance.
Okay, you're a decent sort, let me toss this to you.
Check out the ETF XLK as an alternative to TMFC. Essentially identical or even slightly better performance than the Motley Fool ETF and about one-quarter the fee, right in line with industry average for a low cost ETF. It is SPDR Select Sector Fund - Technology.
Another think that would scare me about the Motley Fool etf is low liquidity and that alone would tell me to steer clear of it.
Another thing - be careful buying individual stocks unless you have a little money to gamble. The quality of info you and I get is nothing like the big boys have access to, We are at a discreet disadvantage. I started getting into aaple 20 years ago before there were etfs and build my position in it. Amzn, a few years ago, but again, built up over time.
Other than owning the FAANG plus MSFT, I would only buy individual stocks with something like 2% of my total portfolio for all of them combined.
Good luck.
seattle prattle wrote:
Don't visit this thread wrote:
Exactly. Who cares what's going to happen tomorrow or the next week.
If you see long term success with the company and willing to hold it for at least next 10 years, it doesn't matter what happens tomorrow.
Seeing Ghost of Igloi's constant warnings of the fall, you'll miss out on decades of great performance.
Okay, you're a decent sort, let me toss this to you.
Check out the ETF XLK as an alternative to TMFC. Essentially identical or even slightly better performance than the Motley Fool ETF and about one-quarter the fee, right in line with industry average for a low cost ETF. It is SPDR Select Sector Fund - Technology.
Another think that would scare me about the Motley Fool etf is low liquidity and that alone would tell me to steer clear of it.
Another thing - be careful buying individual stocks unless you have a little money to gamble. The quality of info you and I get is nothing like the big boys have access to, We are at a discreet disadvantage. I started getting into aaple 20 years ago before there were etfs and build my position in it. Amzn, a few years ago, but again, built up over time.
Other than owning the FAANG plus MSFT, I would only buy individual stocks with something like 2% of my total portfolio for all of them combined.
Good luck.
You’re definitely right about holding individual stocks and being careful about it. I balance it by holding good amount of bond to offset the huge swings. Another thing is to only rebalance portfolio once a year to avoid short term gains tax and to make sure that I’m not over extending with holding too much equity.
Another thing I’m doing is that when I rebalance every year, I’m moving more to ETFs to be more conservative.
I know that I don’t have as much info as the big guys, but I believe market is huge psychological game and great companies with great products/services, disruptor, high demand, and competitive advantage will do well long term. I’ll probably miss some but I’m spread out between around 20 companies.
Also, I’m maxing out my 401k and also add 10% after tax into it. I’m pretty frugal and compared to my coworkers with similar income, I don’t spend much. Our house is tiny, but great location so I love it.
With the XLK etf, it looks good but I love the holdings of TMFC. It aligns with my vision much more so I’ll start to rebalance more towards that little by little.
I really think the number one key with investing is asset allocation. Bond holding is super important, and I believe in holding a decent amount and not being afraid to hold individual stocks that you believe in.
Also, before investing, you want to live below your means and make decent income.
Don't visit this thread wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
both amzn and apple trading relatively flat. Given the recent run-ups for both, I'll take it. Long term buy and hold quality companies, leader in their industries, works. Long and strong, my friends!
Exactly. Who cares what's going to happen tomorrow or the next week.
If you see long term success with the company and willing to hold it for at least next 10 years, it doesn't matter what happens tomorrow.
Seeing Ghost of Igloi's constant warnings of the fall, you'll miss out on decades of great performance.
Oh, like S&P 500 Index 20 year returns annualized at 3%. You better learn yourself up quick rookie.
Both stunk it up. Could be turning point.
bad earnings day wrote:
Both stunk it up. Could be turning point.
futures looking not so good, but still early
Idiot Wind wrote:
To know Sven Henrich is to know his permabear narratives and fear-driven promotional materials. It’s not to say that a trader/investor can’t find value in them, but confidence would certainly be found wanting, as most of his “market crash” publications simply never come to fruition.
Bump.
Total market cap to GDP ratio hits historic highs, far higher than during the dot com bubble or housing bubble. Kind of a no-brainer things are going to go down from here over the short-medium term.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/poor-decisions-galore-newbie-millennialgen-x-ers-pour-expensive-stock-market
I'm a millennial. This is what's driving the surge. I was involved in the bitcoin bubble of 2017 also, and recent market behavior is mimicking that so much it's scary. Young, inexperienced traders are rushing in to buy the dip to try to make a quick buck, and investing is easier than ever before in history due to the variety of apps out there. Because the market essentially only went up between December 2018 and February 2020, making money was idiot-proof, so the layman is convinced the trend will continue without actually doing any research. It has all the hallmarks of a bubble. I expect the market to drop at least 10% but probably not more than 30% from here. My guess is around 2500 by sometime this summer, but who knows.
I am someone who rushed in to buy the dip, but I bought individual stocks of companies that were down huge (more than 50%) who I thought had a low probability of going bankrupt as well as some ETFs that were also down huge that came with significant dividend yields. I did not buy any S&P500 index funds on the way up, nor have I bought much of anything since the S&P500 hit 2800 since I think that is overvalued. I even sold 30% of my S&P500 index fund a couple days ago at about 2880 because I felt strongly the market had a much higher probability of dropping 10+ percent than rising another 5% in the near-ish term. I pretty much never touch that fund, but it just seemed too probable. I'm planning on slowly buying back in if the market drops 10% from it's most recent highs, and right now, all my extra money (about $3,000/month) is going to be held as cash until the market falls to ~2600. Fundamentals will kick in eventually, and when they do, we will see a drop.
PRD wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/poor-decisions-galore-newbie-millennialgen-x-ers-pour-expensive-stock-marketI'm a millennial. This is what's driving the surge. I was involved in the bitcoin bubble of 2017 also, and recent market behavior is mimicking that so much it's scary. Young, inexperienced traders are rushing in to buy the dip to try to make a quick buck, and investing is easier than ever before in history due to the variety of apps out there. Because the market essentially only went up between December 2018 and February 2020, making money was idiot-proof, so the layman is convinced the trend will continue without actually doing any research. It has all the hallmarks of a bubble. I expect the market to drop at least 10% but probably not more than 30% from here. My guess is around 2500 by sometime this summer, but who knows.
I am someone who rushed in to buy the dip, but I bought individual stocks of companies that were down huge (more than 50%) who I thought had a low probability of going bankrupt as well as some ETFs that were also down huge that came with significant dividend yields. I did not buy any S&P500 index funds on the way up, nor have I bought much of anything since the S&P500 hit 2800 since I think that is overvalued. I even sold 30% of my S&P500 index fund a couple days ago at about 2880 because I felt strongly the market had a much higher probability of dropping 10+ percent than rising another 5% in the near-ish term. I pretty much never touch that fund, but it just seemed too probable. I'm planning on slowly buying back in if the market drops 10% from it's most recent highs, and right now, all my extra money (about $3,000/month) is going to be held as cash until the market falls to ~2600. Fundamentals will kick in eventually, and when they do, we will see a drop.
I think you’re trying to predict or assess what’s happening way too much. How are you so sure that April’s performance was driven by bunch of millennials or new investors rushing back in? It’s just too hard to predict.
Who cares if there’s more probability of falling 10% than rising 5% in short term if you’re long term investor? Even if you’re right, what does that prediction matter if you’re long term investor?
You should just keep the money in and don’t think too much of it. Just remember to rebalance your portfolio annually.
As you’ve been witnessing the volatility, what may happen is that you sell, and you are right the market drops, and it may drop a lot. But it could quickly surge back up where you may end up buying back higher than what you sold for. Or you don’t time it right and you just end up buying back not much cheaper than what you sold it for.
Or, you may get it right and buy back at the absolute bottom. Problem with that is you’ll continue to time the market and over the long run, you’ll find out that you would have made a lot more money by just not messing with it. Just leaving the money parked except for annual reallocation is all you need to do.
PRD wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/poor-decisions-galore-newbie-millennialgen-x-ers-pour-expensive-stock-marketI'm a millennial. This is what's driving the surge. I was involved in the bitcoin bubble of 2017 also, and recent market behavior is mimicking that so much it's scary. Young, inexperienced traders are rushing in to buy the dip to try to make a quick buck, and investing is easier than ever before in history due to the variety of apps out there.
Yeah, and they've collectively got about 10 cents to their names.
Young people aren't driving sh!t right now, TINA is, especially with rates basically at 0. There's literally nowhere else in the entire world to put your money.
Gold? no honest investor has wanted that since 1980.
Oil? lol
How about emerging markets? I hear those places are really well capitalized to handle existential pandemics.
China? Sure, if you're in the money laundering business I guess.
Europe? Maybe if they didn't have Italy and Spain dragging down their balance sheet.