Down goes the Dow

agip wrote:

Tesla up another 9% after hours.

TSLA up 29% in 6 days.

Holy toledo.

Yea, it's great! i have lots of TSLA holdings.

Here are my holdings and in which i'll keep adding to my positions and reallocate once a year to move more to bond.

But this is what i hold.

Equity:

AAPL

AMZN

CMG

COST

CRM

MSFT

NFLX

PINS

PRPL

QQQ

RDFN

ROKU

SHAK

TSLA

Bond:

BND

BNDX

VCIT

I love holding bonds as when there's a downturn, i do break my rule a bit where I do allocate some of my bonds to buy more stocks, but not in a big way. I'll still keep about 30% in bonds though.

Are you young? If you are young - you are passing up a bunch holding bonds. The historical returns of equities/mutual funds is about 11% while bonds have returned about 4%. I won't bore you with how the long-term difference would be but unless you are older bonds are not great.

I'm 37. I do 90/10 in my 401K. Actually, i put 100% in equity, and once a year, i reallocate to 90/10.

I do 60/40 with my individual stocks b/c of the violent swings with individual stocks. I saw some of my stocks lose over 50% last month. I keep a lot of bond with my individual stocks bc I know that historically, it's better to keep more in stocks, but emotions come into play. When the bear market comes and it looks like no end in sight, and looking like stocks are gonna keep falling, I don't want to sell.

I think i'll be fine with keeping this high of bond.

My goal is to semi-retire by 50. Then work at Costco, part-time so i can get health insurance covered. I'll find a Costco in Southern California or somewhere real nice. Also, it'll keep me semi-busy and i'll have enough money for me and my wife to do whatever. Take time off to go on vacation anytime. Working at Costco is just for health insurance and also I love their food!

Giles Corey wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

Euro markets up 1% to 1.5%.

Go Tesla

On Tuesday, Telsa gave back more than 1/3rd of the gains (10%+) it had on Monday.

Euro markets up marginally this morning.

Let's go Tesla

Made up Tesla Tuesday losses and then some on Wednesday.

Sixteen days. Stock price from 590 to 800. Not bad.

You saw some of your stocks lose over 50% last month? You are young! The markets have already in a couple of months returned to to much closer to historic highs than most thought it would. The Nasdaq is already close to 9,000. The Dow is already up considerably over lows and that was because of 2 once-in-a-lifetime happenings.

Historic equity returns are about 11% -for bonds 4%. To determine how quickly your portfolio doubles you take the annual return and divide into 72. So a stock portfolio (on average) will double every 6 years. A bond portfolio will double every 18 years. Of course you have a mixed portfolio - but being so young as 37 - you are really missing out on a lot of money.

I don't think I'm losing out on a lot of money. Again, I do 90/10 with 401K.

I'm doing 60/40 with my individual stocks. Your historical returns of 11% is on index. I'm choosing individual stocks with tons more volatility. If I'm doing all index, I'd do higher than 60% into equity for sure. But I don't. I do individual stocks which has paid me off well. I've been in AMZN since $350. Do you know how I was able to do it? B/c of my high bond allocation. It's more difficult to get spooked when you know you've got bonds to cover your butt when market is falling like there's no tomorrow.

You seem to be pretty savvy with your investments. in 30 years - at 67- you should have quite the portfolio.

Sally Vix,

Another reason why I'm fine with 60/40 with my individual stock picking is that I believe I'll hit $3million by the time I'm around 50. Then, I'll semi-retire and work part-time at Costco for the health insurance.

I live pretty cheap most of the time so I probably won't even touch most of that money except for some of my bond allocation. If I don't touch that money much, by the time I'm 65 when I can get Medicare, that $3million will grow to over $9million with just 8% return.

I honestly don't think I'm being that conservative with my bond allocation since my individual stock picking can swing big time.

Sally Vix wrote:

Don't visit this thread wrote:

I don't think I'm losing out on a lot of money. Again, I do 90/10 with 401K.

I'm doing 60/40 with my individual stocks. Your historical returns of 11% is on index. I'm choosing individual stocks with tons more volatility. If I'm doing all index, I'd do higher than 60% into equity for sure. But I don't. I do individual stocks which has paid me off well. I've been in AMZN since $350. Do you know how I was able to do it? B/c of my high bond allocation. It's more difficult to get spooked when you know you've got bonds to cover your butt when market is falling like there's no tomorrow.

You seem to be pretty savvy with your investments. in 30 years - at 67- you should have quite the portfolio.

Thanks! I try to, and hopefully can keep going. I appreciate your advice with this. It's much better than any of the timing the market advice that's thrown out here with everyday stock moves!

Giles Corey wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

On Tuesday, Telsa gave back more than 1/3rd of the gains (10%+) it had on Monday.

Euro markets up marginally this morning.

Let's go Tesla

Made up Tesla Tuesday losses and then some on Wednesday.

Sixteen days. Stock price from 590 to 800. Not bad.

I have a little Tesla. Up even more than that after hours is my small Facebook holding. Google is the one, though, that really delivered for me.

Next up, Apple (tomorrow).

Anyone holding USO that can explain it? Yesterday I almost bought 1000 shares for $hits and giggles. You snooze you lose...

the idiot wrote:

Anyone holding USO that can explain it? Yesterday I almost bought 1000 shares for $hits and giggles. You snooze you lose...

isn't that the one that claims to track oil prices but has been re-jiggered so many times that it doesn't, but is widely assumed to?

Like i said, I opted for XLE for the energy play.

Don't visit this thread wrote:

Worst people to listen to in terms of investing is Peter Schiff and Ghost of Igloi.

Best is just listening to Flagpole. I basically follow his advice except that I invest heavily into individual stocks with 60/40 equity bond ratio instead of paying off my mortgage after investing 30% into 401K and no debt except 30 year mortgage and 15 year mortgage on my rental property.

You can't get rich quick by trying to time the market. It'll grow over time but in a big way if you're patient.

Whatca wanna bet the bravdo was shriveled between your legs on 3/23/2020. We’ll see how well this post ages.

seattle prattle wrote:

the idiot wrote:

Anyone holding USO that can explain it? Yesterday I almost bought 1000 shares for $hits and giggles. You snooze you lose...

isn't that the one that claims to track oil prices but has been re-jiggered so many times that it doesn't, but is widely assumed to?

Like i said, I opted for XLE for the energy play.

USO is an ETF that gives expose to certain oil funds and futures contracts. Some of these energy ETFs do weird things. A few years ago a NatGas ETF collapsed over night. On a similar not, an inverse VIX ETF (called XIV, go figure) basically became insolvent in a day back in February of 2018

agip wrote:

Racket wrote:

Take it as a lesson to not bet against US of MF'in A.

Seriously though, GDP contracted by almost 5% and we're on a massive rally? Chickens will come home to roost over the summer. That's when the bankruptcies will pile on.

yeah...not sure how much that will hurt the stock market though.

and with gummint able to borrow money for free and Rs willing to spend in order to win reelection for trump, that's gonna do some serious bankruptcy prevention.

I wouldn't be so sure. High profile bankruptcies can be avoided with more spending, sure, but I remain skeptical that the government can float small businesses. That combined with the enormous gig worker segment that's essentially not working now indicates a big slide in the summer. People just aren't going to have income or breathing room to spend, and consumer spending is 70% of the economy.

Bills are being pushed out now, but man, it's coming home to roost soon. Those monthly bills on the 100k jacked up trucks and 10 extra properties you bought to AirBnB are gonna have to be paid eventually.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Don't visit this thread wrote:

Worst people to listen to in terms of investing is Peter Schiff and Ghost of Igloi.

Best is just listening to Flagpole. I basically follow his advice except that I invest heavily into individual stocks with 60/40 equity bond ratio instead of paying off my mortgage after investing 30% into 401K and no debt except 30 year mortgage and 15 year mortgage on my rental property.

You can't get rich quick by trying to time the market. It'll grow over time but in a big way if you're patient.

Whatca wanna bet the bravdo was shriveled between your legs on 3/23/2020. We’ll see how well this post ages.

Yes, it did shrivel up on 3/23/2020! No doubt about it, but I kept at it.

See how well this post ages? At what timeline? You've been calling the market to go down for at least 5 years if not longer. If you call every year that it will go down, you'll get it right eventually.

And about how well my post ages, there's 100% chance that market will tumble again. I just don't know when. It might be tomorrow. Next month. in 6 months. In a year. I have no idea. So, whenever market tumbles, are you going to bring my post up?

For the sake of everyone else who are trying to time the market by listening to you, I'm telling them to just stop. If you try to get rich quick from the market, you'll most likely fail. You may get some wins, but in the long run, you will most likely fail. However, if you invest long term with right stock/bond allocation, you will do well and as your asset start to accumulate, that's when you'll really start to see your portfolio grow.

You and Peter Schiff are the worst. Anyone who listened to you or him didn't accumulate as much as you could have and definitely did worse than just S&P500.

Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

yeah...not sure how much that will hurt the stock market though.

and with gummint able to borrow money for free and Rs willing to spend in order to win reelection for trump, that's gonna do some serious bankruptcy prevention.

I wouldn't be so sure. High profile bankruptcies can be avoided with more spending, sure, but I remain skeptical that the government can float small businesses. That combined with the enormous gig worker segment that's essentially not working now indicates a big slide in the summer. People just aren't going to have income or breathing room to spend, and consumer spending is 70% of the economy.

Bills are being pushed out now, but man, it's coming home to roost soon. Those monthly bills on the 100k jacked up trucks and 10 extra properties you bought to AirBnB are gonna have to be paid eventually.

I hears you and I agrees.

Although I've been so wrong on this whole thing I'm trying not to have any opinions whatsoever.

I mention Peter Schiff because I listened to him when I was younger in year 2010 and 2011 as I thought he was "right" because he predicted the 2008 crash. Little did I know that he's been calling for the market to go down every year. No wonder he got it "right" in 2008. I listened to his stupid investment strategy of investing in precious metals and foreign companies that give dividends.

But I learned quickly that's stupid strategy and starting in my early 30s, I started to follow Flagpole's way as well as get smart with stock/bond allocation.

Don't visit this thread wrote:

I think the best thing to do is not to come on this thread and be listening to Ghost of Igloi.

You’re preaching to the choir, brother. Most of us tuned him out a long time ago.