Ok I'm reducing my personal investment grade to C minus or even D+.
Good lord what a rally. +34% from the bottom.
I guess to get a D you have to sell everything...I only sold 10% of my stocks. But that cost me a ton of money. A ton. slap myself.
Buy and hold is easy in good times but very hard in bad times.
Hey, hard to say if that was a good call of not, and i guess a lot would depend, in my mind at least, as to what your stock/bond/cash ratio was to start with. And at what level you sold at. But that said, 10% on the sidelines is nothing to beat yourself up over and I have about that much in cash at this time also.
Of course, it's all your approach, and that differs with each of us.
Honestly, i would consider even keeping more than that on the sidelines now even knowing what we know of the recent bounce/rebound.
I never expect to catch these things at the optimal points, Hell, after a 10 year bull market, i have no qualms about giving a little back in order to protect those significant gains. I figure it's part of he mix and when i see a paper gain, i know that I can only hope for maybe actually realizing most, but probably not all of it.
At the moment, I am still about 10% in cash but i was able to do some buying at the lower levels over the last few weeks.
seattle prattle wrote:
Hey, hard to say if that was a good call of not, and i guess a lot would depend, in my mind at least, as to what your stock/bond/cash ratio was to start with. And at what level you sold at. But that said, 10% on the sidelines is nothing to beat yourself up over and I have about that much in cash at this time also.
Of course, it's all your approach, and that differs with each of us.
Honestly, i would consider even keeping more than that on the sidelines now even knowing what we know of the recent bounce/rebound.
I never expect to catch these things at the optimal points, Hell, after a 10 year bull market, i have no qualms about giving a little back in order to protect those significant gains. I figure it's part of he mix and when i see a paper gain, i know that I can only hope for maybe actually realizing most, but probably not all of it.
At the moment, I am still about 10% in cash but i was able to do some buying at the lower levels over the last few weeks.
I went from stock exposure of around 64% to around 55%.
plus I panic sold some corporate bonds that subsequently rebounded. Another 5% or so.
I look at the Vanguard Balanced Index as my hardest to beat comp. VBINX. And I am getting killed by it.
I have some money there and I think I'll make it 10-20% of my portfolio.
Amazing fund that. 60% stocks, 40% bonds. Does stunningly well. Makes me feel like a moron for not putting all my money in it 40 years ago.
At least I didn't trade in my wife's big IRA. Don't have to break that news. I only hurt my own.
The reason I sold is that my wife is retired, I'm thinking about retiring and we have enough money already, even without SS. So I thought I'd just sell to preserve what we had. oops.
Yeah, but did you beat the Vang. Bal., Index over the last several years? If so, it's just a matter of giving a little back as a sort of insurance policy.
I don't know, Agip.
We both know there's good reason to not rule out a big dip from here. How do quantify that? That's for each of us to decide, but speaking for myself, i know I don't feel 100% sure we're out of the woods yet.
Maybe since you hold a prudent reserve in cash you could be more risky?
I don't hold cash reserves and am frequently leveraged to boot, so I don't mind keeping some powder dry.
Very similar to you in regards to retirement plans and ability to do so. And my wife's company retirement plan - she didn't touch any of it in all this and is probably weathering it better than me who fussed with it considerably.
Good luck.
In closing, I tend to move funds around a lot, and doing that keeps me adjusting the mix along the way to what feels comfortable. But with that said, i never touched the foundation of my portfolio - the very long held holdings in Apple and Google and Amazon except to add to the latter.
Take it as a lesson to not bet against US of MF'in A.
Seriously though, GDP contracted by almost 5% and we're on a massive rally? Chickens will come home to roost over the summer. That's when the bankruptcies will pile on.
agip wrote:
Ok I'm reducing my personal investment grade to C minus or even D+.
Good lord what a rally. +34% from the bottom.
I guess to get a D you have to sell everything...I only sold 10% of my stocks. But that cost me a ton of money. A ton. slap myself.
Buy and hold is easy in good times but very hard in bad times.
Shows what $Trillions can buy short term.....
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1174287248843522048Ghost of Igloi wrote:Shows what $Trillions can buy short term.....
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1174287248843522048
OK that made me smile. :-)
> 2950 earlier today...
Racket wrote:
Take it as a lesson to not bet against US of MF'in A.
Seriously though, GDP contracted by almost 5% and we're on a massive rally? Chickens will come home to roost over the summer. That's when the bankruptcies will pile on.
“March pending home sales -20.8% vs. -13.6% est. & +2.3% in prior month; Northeast -14.5%; Midwest -22%; South -19.5%; West -26.8% … pending sales y/y -14.5% vs. +11.4% in prior month
@nardotrealtor”
Fib 61.8% ~ 2940
Idiot Wind wrote:
To know Sven Henrich is to know his permabear narratives and fear-driven promotional materials. It’s not to say that a trader/investor can’t find value in them, but confidence would certainly be found wanting, as most of his “market crash” publications simply never come to fruition.
Bump.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Fib 61.8% ~ 2940
That's what my astrologist told me at my last Tarot card reading!
:-)
the idiot wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Fib 61.8% ~ 2940
That's what my astrologist told me at my last Tarot card reading!
:-)
And guess what?
Closed at 2939.56.....
Confirms full Fib retracement, technicians would say rollover from here....
Nasdaq has s already gone up to close to 9,000 (only down about 10% from the all-time high). Quite an impressive run-up. The Dow is close to 24,600 from a low of, I think, a low of around 18,500. There are reports of 2 very favorable treatments including Oxford Univ. of having an effective and widespread vaccine as early as Sept. Again, the market hates uncertainty. Give us an effective vaccine and the market (Dow and S & P) are going to go up quite a bit.
Racket wrote:
Take it as a lesson to not bet against US of MF'in A.
Seriously though, GDP contracted by almost 5% and we're on a massive rally? Chickens will come home to roost over the summer. That's when the bankruptcies will pile on.
yeah...not sure how much that will hurt the stock market though.
and with gummint able to borrow money for free and Rs willing to spend in order to win reelection for trump, that's gonna do some serious bankruptcy prevention.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
the idiot wrote:
That's what my astrologist told me at my last Tarot card reading!
:-)
And guess what?
Closed at 2939.56.....
Confirms full Fib retracement, technicians would say rollover from here....
and the spx is just 2% below its 200 day moving average. Could be resistance or could be support. Or could be nothing at all.
agip wrote:
Ok I'm reducing my personal investment grade to C minus or even D+.
Good lord what a rally. +34% from the bottom.
I guess to get a D you have to sell everything...I only sold 10% of my stocks. But that cost me a ton of money. A ton. slap myself.
Buy and hold is easy in good times but very hard in bad times.
I think the best thing to do is not to come on this thread and be listening to Ghost of Igloi. Hasn't he been calling for the bear market for the past 5 years or so?
I think the best is to have a set stock/bond allocation and stick to it. With my 401K, it's 90/10.
With my separate account, I keep 60/40 as I invest in individual stocks that are more inherent to violent swings than index. And I only reallocate once a year so I only have to pay capital gains tax when I reallocate instead of short term gains tax.
Trying to time the market or listening to doom and gloom is just bad. Just remember that market is rigged to go up. There are so much government interventions to keep the market afloat at bad times.
Don't visit this thread wrote:
agip wrote:
Ok I'm reducing my personal investment grade to C minus or even D+.
Good lord what a rally. +34% from the bottom.
I guess to get a D you have to sell everything...I only sold 10% of my stocks. But that cost me a ton of money. A ton. slap myself.
Buy and hold is easy in good times but very hard in bad times.
I think the best thing to do is not to come on this thread and be listening to Ghost of Igloi. Hasn't he been calling for the bear market for the past 5 years or so?
I think the best is to have a set stock/bond allocation and stick to it. With my 401K, it's 90/10.
With my separate account, I keep 60/40 as I invest in individual stocks that are more inherent to violent swings than index. And I only reallocate once a year so I only have to pay capital gains tax when I reallocate instead of short term gains tax.
Trying to time the market or listening to doom and gloom is just bad. Just remember that market is rigged to go up. There are so much government interventions to keep the market afloat at bad times.
I agree with a lot of what you say. Perhaps the most famous investment manager of all-time, Peter Lynch, of Fidelity Magellan, was an ardent advocate of equities/mutual funds over bonds. He pretty much wanted to put everything into equities/mutual funds when you are young and avoid bonds almost alltogether.
You are right about market-timing. Just not going to happen. A famous study in the 90s concluded that market-timing and stock-picking provides 4% to your portfolio. The other 96%? Diversity. Quit worrying about market-timing and stock-picking. For the most part you will never be successful in that endeavor. Instead diversity your portfolio. That is what you care about. You want to match the market.
Lynch's Magellan fund returned an annual return of 30% over like 13 years. Just amazing.
Tesla up another 9% after hours.
TSLA up 29% in 6 days.
Holy toledo.
Don't visit this thread wrote:
agip wrote:
Ok I'm reducing my personal investment grade to C minus or even D+.
Good lord what a rally. +34% from the bottom.
I guess to get a D you have to sell everything...I only sold 10% of my stocks. But that cost me a ton of money. A ton. slap myself.
Buy and hold is easy in good times but very hard in bad times.
I think the best thing to do is not to come on this thread and be listening to Ghost of Igloi. Hasn't he been calling for the bear market for the past 5 years or so?
I think the best is to have a set stock/bond allocation and stick to it. With my 401K, it's 90/10.
With my separate account, I keep 60/40 as I invest in individual stocks that are more inherent to violent swings than index. And I only reallocate once a year so I only have to pay capital gains tax when I reallocate instead of short term gains tax.
Trying to time the market or listening to doom and gloom is just bad. Just remember that market is rigged to go up. There are so much government interventions to keep the market afloat at bad times.
agreed.
As for this thread, I go back what...9 years here. Am old friends with Igy and everyone else and I actually stopped coming to this thread in the depths of the bear market in March and April because I couldn't stand reading everyone say 'oh I went to cash in February'
agreed that information tends to reduce stock market returns.