Why couldn't bekele break 7:20 ?

jwjwj wrote:

Canova>God wrote:

It is pronounced G Wet and I agree with you that those guys could have run much faster in Doha. If they had not slowed so much in that 3k G Wet might have gotten close to your prediction. But track does not work that way. It is what you run that defines you not subjective analysis. G Wet ran a 7:30 with a 53 last lap. Nothing more nothing less.

So you think that the fastest he could have run was 7:30?

Read more carefully and you will get the answer.

Cow Man wrote:

jwjwj wrote:

Bekele had enough speed. He is a 3:30/3:31 type of 1500 guy

.

His PR is 3:32.35. While certainly impressive, it does not match Daniel Komen, El G, & Morceli who top the all time 3000 meter lists

El G and Morceli are irrelevant. Bekele is at most a second slower than Komen in the 1500 but a couple seconds faster than him in the 5000. That means that they can only be a second apart in the 3000 at most.

Bekele's PR is 3:32 sure but he opened it in 53 seconds and 1:51.

jwjwj wrote:

Cow Man wrote:.

His PR is 3:32.35. While certainly impressive, it does not match Daniel Komen, El G, & Morceli who top the all time 3000 meter lists

El G and Morceli are irrelevant. Bekele is at most a second slower than Komen in the 1500 but a couple seconds faster than him in the 5000. That means that they can only be a second apart in the 3000 at most.

Bekele's PR is 3:32 sure but he opened it in 53 seconds and 1:51.

Let's deal in facts shall we? And the facts are that Komen's 1500 PR is 3:29.46 -- nearly 3 seconds faster than Bekele's actual 1500 PR.

And why the hell are El G and Morceli irrelevant? Are they not ahead of KB on the 3,000 meter all-time list? Please explain this odd assertion

Look at his mile time.

Cow Man wrote:

jwjwj wrote:

El G and Morceli are irrelevant. Bekele is at most a second slower than Komen in the 1500 but a couple seconds faster than him in the 5000. That means that they can only be a second apart in the 3000 at most.

Bekele's PR is 3:32 sure but he opened it in 53 seconds and 1:51.

Let's deal in facts shall we? And the facts are that Komen's 1500 PR is 3:29.46 -- nearly 3 seconds faster than Bekele's actual 1500 PR.

And why the hell are El G and Morceli irrelevant? Are they not ahead of KB on the 3,000 meter all-time list? Please explain this odd assertion

It's not an odd assertion. El G and Morceli are irrelevant because they are not comparable runners to Bekele like Komen is. They don't even have 5k times during their peak do they?

I am dealing in facts. What are you dealing in? The fact is that Bekele opened in 53 seconds. Clearly he is significantly faster than the time he ran in that race. That is a fact.

If Bekele is only a second or two slower over 1500m than Komen but a few seconds ahead at 5000m, then that means that they should be within a second or so of each other at 3000m. This is also a fact. It's called interpolation. It's a mathematical concept.

reminder that ventolin also thinks ryun should have run 3:24 in the 1500 so take that grain of salt into consideration when reading his posts

jwjwj wrote:

I just watched the 5k on YouTube 5 minutes ago. There was at least 1 sub 60 lap. Between 8:00 and 9:00 into the race.

Yea, this seems to be the case.

el guerrouj ran 3:26, 3:43, 4:44 world records and 7:23/12:50, so you know that in the right 3k, which he did not run much, and a fast 5k, and he never ran in a single low 12:40s race, he could have run considerably faster. he's relevant.

jjjjjjj wrote:

el guerrouj ran 3:26, 3:43, 4:44 world records and 7:23/12:50, so you know that in the right 3k, which he did not run much, and a fast 5k, and he never ran in a single low 12:40s race, he could have run considerably faster. he's relevant.

How does any of that make him relevant? This thread is about Bekele not El G. El G is a very different type of runner than Bekele so he is even more irrelevant. They are not comparable.

ksksk wrote:

jjjjjjj wrote:

el guerrouj ran 3:26, 3:43, 4:44 world records and 7:23/12:50, so you know that in the right 3k, which he did not run much, and a fast 5k, and he never ran in a single low 12:40s race, he could have run considerably faster. he's relevant.

How does any of that make him relevant? This thread is about Bekele not El G. El G is a very different type of runner than Bekele so he is even more irrelevant. They are not comparable.

Let's look at your logic. First, you ask a rhetorical question, which says nothing. Second, the thread is clearly about a number of runners referred to in, among others, ventolin's posts on speculative times. Third, El G's greater speed makes it an interesting question whether with multiple serious tries he, rather than Bekele, could have beaten Komen's time. Fourth, Bekele and El Guerrouj differed by very little at 3k, indicating that they are indeed comparable. That's why you have the races, to compare at the same distances. But we still get to speculate from the race conditions and their other performances. Your whole post comes down to the statement that El G is not relevant and you cite zero facts to support that view.

Nothing you just said makes any sense.

I did not ask a rhetorical question. You listed a bunch of El G stats and I asked what does any of that have to do with his relevancy. Do you know what "rhetorical" means?

Second, Ventolin did not start this thread nor is this thread titled "why could Bekele or others not run 7:20?".

Third, no. El GM's greater speed does not make an interesting question because he is not the subject of this thread.

Fourth, the fact that they ran similar times doesn't make them comparable runners at all. Bekele is a distance guy. El G is a speed guy. Completely different types of runners. Not comparable.

My post is full of facts. But perhaps since you don't know what "rhetoric" means, then maybe you don't know what "facts" mean also.

ventolin^3 wrote:

eh ???

try 3'31i for speed

or how about dragging 10'11.53 ( 12'44.41 pace ) to 12'39.36 - a 2'27.83 finish with a 56.77 finish

I know you are pretty good at Math. So why can't you see that if you run 4km in 10:11.53 it is 61.15 per lap ... indeed 12:44.41 pace ... and that continuing at 61.15 AVERAGE pace for 600m and then closing in 56.77 would bring you to 12:40.03?

In other words, there is nothing magical or exceptional about running 11.5 laps at 12:44 pace and then speeding up for 400m and running 12:39. Running 12:39 is exceptional of course in that only 3 humans have ever done it. But the example you cite there is not unusual in any way.

Do you think that WRs are set with an even-pace last lap? Surely you must be making some other point that is escaping me?

Moorcroft was at 12:02.XX at the bell for the first 13:00-flat of all time (which is 62.82 a lap) until he covered the last lap in 58.03, which is only 1.3 seconds slower than your example.

The 2:27.83 is irrelevant and is completely a consequence of 600m at 60.71 per lap (quite the same as the "dragging" 61.15 10-lap pace you mention) and the 400m speed up of 56.77.

I guess 56 is pretty quick close for a WR, or near it, which may also be the point V3 is making.

However, I'm curious how many WR races have truly gone even the entire way, including the last lap being very near the average pace of the rest of the race. I know Bekele closed in around 57 for both of his standing WRs. Hicham was around 53 for his last lap in 3:26. Not sure about others.

If they are all consistently faster it means one of two things:

1)Athletes always have a little extra that last 200m, perhaps because of different energy systems

2)The athlete is capable of faster race on that day, and/or pacing could be more aggressive.

as another poster already said

most of these guys were doped to the eyeballs anyhow

we may as well be debating the merits of different drug combinations as none of the times are genuine clean times

anyhow

Bekele's PR is 3:32 sure but he opened it in 53 seconds and 1:51.[/quote]

Let's deal in facts shall we? And the facts are that Komen's 1500 PR is 3:29.46 -- nearly 3 seconds faster than Bekele's actual 1500 PR.

And why the hell are El G and Morceli irrelevant? Are they not ahead of KB on the 3,000 meter all-time list? Please explain this odd assertion[/quote]

It's not an odd assertion. El G and Morceli are irrelevant because they are not comparable runners to Bekele like Komen is. They don't even have 5k times during their peak do they?

I am dealing in facts. What are you dealing in? The fact is that Bekele opened in 53 seconds. Clearly he is significantly faster than the time he ran in that race. That is a fact.

If Bekele is only a second or two slower over 1500m than Komen but a few seconds ahead at 5000m, then that means that they should be within a second or so of each other at 3000m. This is also a fact. It's called interpolation. It's a mathematical concept.

The question is why was Bekele's 3000m pr not faster. My assertion is that he was not a fast enuff miler. And note that his 1500 pr is 3 seconds or more slower than Komen, El G, and Morceli to back this up.

You "argument" is that El G and Morceli are not relevant to my argument because what? They are not comparable runners to Bekele? Why cannot they not be compared to Bekele? Because they don't have "5k times during their peak? First of all, that is not a true statement and second of all that is truly irrelevant to my assertion regarding mile times and 3000 meter times. Next you state that bekele is only a second or tow slower than Komen over 1500 when I have already posted their prs and the difference is 3 seconds.

Conclusion. Every statement of 'fact" you have made is 100% wrong as is your "logic"

Please show how any of my facts are 100% wrong. And please define what you think "logic" means

given perfect conditions, peak fitness, and the perfect combo of peds, i got rupp beating them all -- 7:18.

Ventolin, what about Nicholas Kemboi on his best day? Wikipedia has his 800 PR at 1:46 and his 10k at 26:30 (of course he ran those three years apart). For someone in 1:46/26:30 shape, what 3k and mile could we expect? (I'd say he'd need better 10k speed to be within 3 seconds of the 5k WR but that's a guess).

jwjwj wrote:

Bekele's PR is 3:32 sure but he opened it in 53 seconds and 1:51.

I am dealing in facts. What are you dealing in? The fact is that Bekele opened in 53 seconds. Clearly he is significantly faster than the time he ran in that race. That is a fact.

If Bekele is only a second or two slower over 1500m than Komen but a few seconds ahead at 5000m, then that means that they should be within a second or so of each other at 3000m. This is also a fact. It's called interpolation. It's a mathematical concept.

Interesting "facts" you are dealing with. In his 3:32,35 Bekele has not opened in 53 seconds (in fact, over 54). Also at 800m he was significantly slower (1:52,4) than what you have written. So my question: why are you writing this?

For an long distance runner of his calibre, his 1500m performances are not very special in any way. In fact, it's what you should expect at least of him.