Not a single person in the world predicts Dathan to win gold. But again, what's the surprise here on his top end speed? Everyone knows his limitation. He's likely the slowest 200M guy to ever run under 13 minutes for 5K. Strength, strength, strength over the distance.
A 12:56 5K guy feeling good and tapering perfectly can certainly run 27 Flat and achieve something rare. And I hope he does. He deserves it.
gonchar wrote:
NO, not ever 2:10 marathoner, on marathon training mode, can run 26 for 200m.
Some can, most cannot.
Can you back this up with some evidence? I just find it hard to believe. Dathan is the slowest guy ever and even he can run a 26 at the end of a workout.
If Rupp said he was finishing workouts in :54 & :26, posters would find it very believable (and don't argue). How fast "should" Ritz finish his workouts? :50? :24?
WhatYo wrote:
Ritz won't win in a kick. He might get top 5 based on strength, though.
What evidence has anyone seen in the past year that he can make the final? Seems highly unlikely to me. People like Rupp will be fighting like hell to make the top five. If Ritz is in the lead pack when the kick starts it will be a terrific story.
The 10K is finals only. In the last olympics, Hall was coming off unbelievable races & Ritz beat him. Ritz beat Rupp at the WC's, when Rupp was clearly 'better'. Ritz was way off form in beating a fit Hall in NCAA XC. Ritz was 3rd in junior WC XC, beating huge runners. In an OG/WC setting, I give him a chance to beat most anyone. And don't say other guys are better now. Ritz is too- injury-free for a year. Plus, I'll take his in-race toughness/mentality over anyone.
jjjjjjjj wrote:
You always need to remember that first we look at their race history and performance in championship races, as well as how they do in different types of races, slow kickers' races and fast races, long drives to the finish, etc., and then we look at how their training and health now compare to previous times. In his best year, 2009, Ritz was introduced by Alberto to 400s in 56, which he said he'd never done before in workouts, and together with the other training he ran 27:22 6th at World's/12:56 3rd behind Bekele/60:00 World Bronze.
He is now running some 400s in 54 and a 200 in 26.0. Neither of those times is what you want to be able to close at World Champs or the Olympics, but relative to Ritz this suggests that he is ready to run a very fast second 5k, and will probably throw down pr's of 12:53/26:54 after the Olympics. It is a great sign. He is a distance runner, not a sprinter, and he would obviously make all the sprinters look pretty damn foolish after 1k and almost all of the middle distance runners look foolish at 5k and up. In fact, with the added speed, you can expect him to destroy his 3k converted from 2M time if he runs it this year.
Pretty much agree here, but Ritz is already committed to the Chicago Marathon, so I doubt he races after the Olympics. If he's going to set a PR and run sub-27, it's going to be in the Olympic 10,000. My guess is, if he runs a PR, it will be his lifetime PR. We will see.
There's a recent video of Nick Willis now up on Flotrack. He talks about a key workout in June, where he ran 400, 800, 1200, all at race pace, with a decent rest. He concluded the workout with an all out 400. He said he expected to run 54!!! However, Willis and his coach were surprised he ran his PR, 50 (flat).
Sagarin is right: Ritz will turn to marathon training for Chicago after the Olympics, which is somewhat of a shame, because if his training is going as well as he says, it would be neat to see him in a few rabbited races.
ttc wrote:
If Rupp said he was finishing workouts in :54 & :26, posters would find it very believable (and don't argue). How fast "should" Ritz finish his workouts? :50? :24?
Are you responding to me? If so, what does my statement have to do with your statement? If you're not talking to me, then I will say that I don't think there is a "should" for finishing workouts. That sounds dumb. You do whatever the workout is. Some workouts might not even have a 200 or a 400 at the end.
Testing top speed at the end of a workout is in no way a reliable indication of your actual top speed.
No, I wasn't talking to you. Sorry for not clarifying.
JackPacage wrote:
No your not
Yes his is
Did you read the Jogger's World Q&A?
He sounds like he knows he has zero shot at a medal. He sounds like he is just glad to be on the team (and he should) and is looking to run faster than at trials.
WC XC is not a big time $ race and not comparable to the OG 10K.
Bringing up his two big victories over Hall - Hall beat him USATF 12k at VCP and beat him twice in both Oly Quals.
If Ritz was a tough and strong as you believe he'd have run faster than 2:09:55.
He'd have run faster than Abdi and Solinsky in the 10k too. He's run faster 5ks after all.
Reread my post. My point is, he's overachieved in world/olympic settings, exceeding past performances. He's a combined 2-0 vs Rupp & Hall in these races, despite being decidedly 'worse than each' going in & showing no indication he could do it. That's major overachievement. AND DON'T PUT WORDS IN MY MOUTH. IF I DIDN'T POST IT, THEN DON'T ASSUME I MEAN *ANYTHING* ADDITIONAL. If you do, then it confirms you agree with what I've posted and are arguing against a ghost.
This is why I come to this site - for nuggets like this. Thanks for this excellent piece of info.
Montesquieu wrote:
There's a recent video of Nick Willis now up on Flotrack. He talks about a key workout in June, where he ran 400, 800, 1200, all at race pace, with a decent rest. He concluded the workout with an all out 400. He said he expected to run 54!!! However, Willis and his coach were surprised he ran his PR, 50 (flat).
Sagarin is right: Ritz will turn to marathon training for Chicago after the Olympics, which is somewhat of a shame, because if his training is going as well as he says, it would be neat to see him in a few rabbited races.
http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/248216-2012-London-Olympics-Games/video/647310-Nick-Willis-drops-a-50-at-end-of-workout
I think Ritz is going to pull off an amazing time. I couldn't care less about his medal chances, but thats good, as there is no pressure on him at all. I think Ritz's going to do something special here in London. Its going to be a strength run, like his 12:56, and the weather just the way he likes it in London- nothing like Athens or China. Once he can pick off some guys, he will be rolling. He's going to remember the broken foot in 2004 and all the many years of frustration. He will be down near 27:00.
Montesquieu wrote:
Sagarin is right: Ritz will turn to marathon training for Chicago after the Olympics, which is somewhat of a shame, because if his training is going as well as he says, it would be neat to see him in a few rabbited races.
Ritz will make more money running Chicago than he would running a 26:54 for 5th place in some race in Europe post-Olympics. That's just the economics of the sport right now.
Emma Gallagher is a middle distance runner who just finished her freshman year at Garden City H.S. She has run a sub 2:10 800. Based on her 55.63 400 and 40.28 indoor 300, I would not bet the ranch on Ritz beating this kid next year in the 4 or 2.
This video just went up on Flotrack--a Rupp workout from February, indoors in Albuquerque: http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/248216-2012-London-Olympics-Games/video/652294-Galen-Rupp-Olympic-Workout6x1 mile--averaged mid 4:20s10x200--all 26s, which is why I post it here
kanny wrote:
This is why I come to this site - for nuggets like this. Thanks for this excellent piece of info.
Montesquieu wrote:There's a recent video of Nick Willis now up on Flotrack. He talks about a key workout in June, where he ran 400, 800, 1200, all at race pace, with a decent rest. He concluded the workout with an all out 400. He said he expected to run 54!!! However, Willis and his coach were surprised he ran his PR, 50 (flat).
Sagarin is right: Ritz will turn to marathon training for Chicago after the Olympics, which is somewhat of a shame, because if his training is going as well as he says, it would be neat to see him in a few rabbited races.
http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/248216-2012-London-Olympics-Games/video/647310-Nick-Willis-drops-a-50-at-end-of-workout
Sagarin wrote:
My guess is, if he runs a PR, it will be his lifetime PR.
What other kind of PR (personal record) IS there, besides a "lifetime PR"?
argt wrote:
Sagarin wrote:My guess is, if he runs a PR, it will be his lifetime PR.
What other kind of PR (personal record) IS there, besides a "lifetime PR"?
He means he'll never run faster from here on out. A fairly reasonable prediction.
Running Chicago is a good financial decision for Ritz but after the year he has had you have to wonder if it's the smartest decision for his health. He has to be fried...trials Marathon in January...all the track races including 3 all out 10,000's and then Chicago in October. Seems like a lot within 10 months.