That^
That^
Ifs and buts, we can all say that. How many years are you going to go back Mr. Burke? We are talking today, now, present time. He's not breaking 1:05 but you've kept yourself safe by saying the you "hope he hits his goal", so you can claim afterwards that you never said he would. Really sticking it out there aren't ya? Shit or get off the pot. Do you think he'll break 1:05? My answer is no way.
I'm going to put Goucher at a 63:49 at Philly.
I'm going with 63:00-63:30.
To anyone who said Goucher isn't tough... you obviously have no clue.
As I've said before, Goucher only appears "tough" because he ran at a time when U.S. distance running was at its worst. It's like that Seinfeld episode where Kramer joins karate and beats up on little kids.
If Goucher was born ten years later, he would have been CRUSHED in NCAA/elite meets and would have zero chance of making a World Champs/Olympic team. Probably would have run DIII.
Anyway, I have a hard time calling Goucher "tough" when he makes so many whiny blog posts. Time to grow a sac and retire.
Koneko wrote:
That 10,000 he ran at the Trials was a disgrace.
Didn't he break 28 in that race?
Koneko, you continue to amaze me at your lack of logic and critical reasoning skills. I hope life isn't too hard for you as a fry cook, and if you are some big shot director or manager, then the market does not efficiently place people as it should.
LetsRun has to be filled with a bunch of 16-18 yo morons. In order to break 1:05:00, you have to be able to break 14:00. Are you saying goucher couldn't go to a track right now in his blue jeans and sandals and bust out a 13:59? I beg to differ if that is in fact what you are saying.
I don't see him running approximately 4:57 pace "easily", as was said on this thread.
1:06-1:07 or he drops out knowing he's already way behind pace.
You guys are funny, seriously! As someone said, what has he done lately? When was his last race even close to the distance and what were the results. Pipe dream fellas.
I am not who you responded to but I'll take that bet. Blue jeans, sandals, and bust out a 13:59. I don't see that happening and irrelevant of that, doing one has nothing to do with the other. 5000 is not a half. I think you have the lack of logic.
bangalangadanga wrote:
In order to break 1:05:00, you have to be able to break 14:00.
Dozens and dozens and dozens of Japanese guys would beg to differ.
Koneko wrote:
If Goucher was born ten years later, he would have been CRUSHED in NCAA/elite meets and would have zero chance of making a World Champs/Olympic team. Probably would have run DIII.
This is some hilarious trolling bro. Grab a smice and chillax, maybe then me and my bros can gang rape you while we crank the Back.
1:07:34 or does not finish it. Sorry Adam, but it's a tad too late for you mate.
Koneko-- You're making a very good point. Most NCAA national meets are won in 13:06 or so-- much faster than 13:10. In fact, most D1 athletes (these days, I mean) can run 13:09, 13:08 or faster. IN FACT, no fewer than 17 D1 males ran under 13:10 just last year. IN FACT, most D3 schools have runners capable of running around 13:00, embarrassing Goucher's paltry 13:10. IN FACT, I watched a HIGH SCHOOL MEET just last week wherein 32 runners broke 13:10 and the winner was 12:55. SO YOU'RE TOTALLY RIGHT YOU F-ING LUNATIC! All the data supports your theory that Goucher should have run D3 and, yes, 13:10 totally sucks.
I'm going to go run a 13:00 flat tempo with my D3 team now.
Koneko wrote:
As I've said before, Goucher only appears "tough" because he ran at a time when U.S. distance running was at its worst. It's like that Seinfeld episode where Kramer joins karate and beats up on little kids.
If Goucher was born ten years later, he would have been CRUSHED in NCAA/elite meets and would have zero chance of making a World Champs/Olympic team. Probably would have run DIII.
Anyway, I have a hard time calling Goucher "tough" when he makes so many whiny blog posts. Time to grow a sac and retire.
You don't have any idea what you're talking about
Considering that he's been training with Kara (and doesn't need to be that much faster than her PR in the half), I say he hits it. After being as injured as he's been, I doubt he's going to take risks so his pacing should be spot on. Looks like he'll have plenty of guys running in the neighborhood of 64, and he's been health and training for nearly a year. I don't see it as that far-fetched that he'll hit the standard.
And in reality, our marathoners are not all that strong outside of Hall right now. Who knows what Ritz and Meb are really capable of right now? Both Hall and Meb are running fall marathons, Ritz may still have a non-healing wound, and I think I'd take Adam G. at his current age, with a year of solid training over Nick A. or Jason L. any day.
Can anyone really argue that this is what we'll see after the trials?
1 - Hall
2 - Mo Trafeh
3 - Up for grabs (Meb (old and may not recover from NYC), Ritz (Perhaps the 10K is looking good if he hasn't recovered), Nick (He'd have to run near PR in a tactical race), Jason (Same as Nick), Adam (Not outside the realm of possibilities))
He thinks he has a shot at going under 1:05. At his level and with his resources if he did not think he had a really good shot at qualifying there is no way he would put himself out there like that.
I think Adam knows more about his chances than all of us.
Also 36 is not old for a fast half or full.
InWyo wrote:
Considering that he's been training with Kara (and doesn't need to be that much faster than her PR in the half), I say he hits it. After being as injured as he's been, I doubt he's going to take risks so his pacing should be spot on. Looks like he'll have plenty of guys running in the neighborhood of 64, and he's been health and training for nearly a year. I don't see it as that far-fetched that he'll hit the standard.
And in reality, our marathoners are not all that strong outside of Hall right now. Who knows what Ritz and Meb are really capable of right now? Both Hall and Meb are running fall marathons, Ritz may still have a non-healing wound, and I think I'd take Adam G. at his current age, with a year of solid training over Nick A. or Jason L. any day.
Can anyone really argue that this is what we'll see after the trials?
1 - Hall
2 - Mo Trafeh
3 - Up for grabs (Meb (old and may not recover from NYC), Ritz (Perhaps the 10K is looking good if he hasn't recovered), Nick (He'd have to run near PR in a tactical race), Jason (Same as Nick), Adam (Not outside the realm of possibilities))
I'd argue Mo Trafeh for sure. Guy needs to actually finish a marathon. I'd put Cabada as having a better shot than him.
different drummer3 wrote:
Enjoy the bantering as anyone who thinks he's going to run a 1:02-1:04 at age 36 with no recent races to indicate such times is a nut and grasping for straws. Adam is cooked, I wish he wasn't, but he is. Time to move on.
1. 36 ain't that old
2. You're right that he doesn't have recent times, but that cuts both ways. You have no evidence to say he's cooked, just like I have no (recent) evidence to say he'll go sub- 1:05.
3. He's been hurt before and come back to run well, so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that if he says he's ready to run, he's ready.
Trolls like Koneko really make this site less and less worthwhile to visit. It's depressing.
troof be told wrote:
bangalangadanga wrote:In order to break 1:05:00, you have to be able to break 14:00.
Dozens and dozens and dozens of Japanese guys would beg to differ.
^---I got my correlation from a google search of "vdot tables". If there are 14:15 - 14:30 japanese runners going under 65 for the half, then my argument is further supported that goucher has the current physical ability to crush 65 minutes.
the dude does have a pr of 63.