ggilder wrote:
That $700 billion is a wholly mythical number that indicates tax receipts projected presuming no change in behavior in response to the higher tax rates. The correct number is below zero, since higher tax rates on capital gains nearly always result in less revenues, not more revenues, as taxpayers move their investments to tax free categories (municipal bonds, money losing businesses). The reduction in capital gains rates in the late 1990s resulted in a near tripling of receipts, as executive income shifted from salaries to options and equities.
George,
Although it's great to see you participating in this little debate, I don't believe that your statements are anywhere close to accurate. You seem to be conflating gross tax receipts with capital gains tax receipts, and mixing up discussions of marginal income tax rates with observations about capital gains rates. Obviously, when capital gains are accorded exceptionally advantageous tax treatment, executives and others who have substantial control or influence over the character and realization of their income and gains will have a greater incentive to be paid through tax-favored options and equities rather than salaries, and that may result in increased capital gains tax receipts, especially over the short term. But that increase in capital gains tax receipts will generally come at the expense of ordinary-income tax receipts.
If you are really claiming that a reduction in capital gains rates in the late 1990s "resulted in" a "near tripling" of gross tax receipts, I'd like to see your support for that statement. I don't think that you can show a "near tripling" of gross tax receipts in the late 1990s, and I don't think that you can show a causal link between a reduction in capital gains rates and this purported "near tripling" in gross tax receipts. (Moreover, even if you correct and clarify your statement to refer to a "near tripling" in capital gains tax receipts only, and even if one attributes the entire tech stock bubble of the late 1990s to lower capital gains rates, the resulting wealth redistribution and subsequent wealth destruction hardly seem worth repeating as a policy matter.) In contrast, I believe that there are compelling statistics supporting the view that lower marginal income tax rates in the early GWB years "resulted in" lower gross tax receipts. It seems to me that one needs an almost religious faith in so-called "supply-side economics" (aka "voodoo economics") of the sort that you and Art Laffer have espoused to conclude otherwise.