Willis moving up to 5000m

what kind of 5000 could Webb run?

Lagat.

'if webb had got the above right in '08 & not got injured'

If a cheetah is chasing an antelope lacks a bit of speed and gets caught, or pulls a muscle and gets caught it makes no difference. It's lost the race

Being resistant to injury is part of being talented

I agree that we will see very few athletes as talented as Webb in a lifetime. But I'm curious about the 3:26 high/3:27 low extrapolation. Aouita ran basically the same 800m time as Webb (1:43.86 vs 1:43.84) and was marginally faster at 10k (27:26 vs 27:34). His 1500m pr was 3:29.45. Are you saying that Aouita didn't run up to his ultimate potential at 1500m?

ventolin^3 wrote:

Rice bowl wrote:

Ventolin,

Can you do a similar 5000 analysis for Webb?

webb leading into '08 had the basis for a fantastic 1500

he had run in consecutive years 1'43.8 & near 27'30

obviously they weren't run in simultaneous shape for both, but the plan obviously was to have got as close as possible to having both 1'43 speed & 27'30 endurance in '08

that wouda meant

~ high-3'26/low-3'27 potential

if webb had got the above right in '08 & not got injured, he wouda blown away that peking field, probably with a coruscating push from about 500 - 600m out ( he also couda won it with a last lap sprint )

we will see very few athletes as talented as webb in a lifetime

ukathleticscoach wrote:Being resistant to injury is part of being talented

eh ?

he did damn fine job of having no significant injury since he burst onto the scene in '01 to '08, so he spent 7y uninjured

not good enough for ya ?!

aouita didn't run 1'43 & <27'30 in same season ( same as webb )

however, i'm pretty sure he was in <1'44 shape in '85 ( come to that later ) but unknown 10k ability as he didn't run it that year

aouita in '85 ran a 52.7 last lap to almost catch cram, a 1'42.8 guy that year, on the line in that epic 1500

he had to have 400 ability similar to cram's & by implication their 800s coudn't have been much different

any guy who can run 52.7 to finish of a 3'29.7 had to be a helluva lot faster than 3'29.7 if the race had been run at even pace from start

i'd certainly wager he couda gone a low-3'28 on that day & perhaps into the high-3'27s ( same applies for cram in his mile WR - 3'46.3 with a 53.2 - gotta have been worth high-3'44/low-3'45 if run evenly - worth about same as aouita's 1500 with 1.08 conversion )

'he did damn fine job of having no significant injury since he burst onto the scene in '01 to '08, so he spent 7y uninjured'

Christ you were the one who brought up his injury so you are arguing with yourself

You like stats so here are a few:

World Ranking

2010 3:36.21 Outside top 50

2009 3:42.58 Outside top 50

2008 3:35.86 approx 49th

2007 3:30.54 1

2006 - What happened here stato?

2005 3:32.52 12

2004 3:32.73 19

So if he's so talented how come he has won f all and only had one or two good years?

i brought up the injury to explain the halt in his progression when '08 was obviously the year he was aiming towards since '01this basic concept too difficult for you ???

2006 - What happened here stato?

he ran a magnificent 27'34, which ensured he had the endurance springboard for the following years

So if he's so talented how come he has won f all and only had one or two good years?

are you too stoopid to see steady solid progress there ???

steadily improving from 3'32 level, which wouda given him no chance of medalling v hicham, bernie et al in early/mid '00s to a hopeful career peak in '08 where expectation wouda been <<3'30 ability & great chance of the big medal

his career upto '08 was one of the finest, calculated planned ones it has been my privilege to have followed

Aouita was a better 800m runner than Webb with the potential of running faster. He was an Olympic bronze medallist for f*** sake! He had far greater leg speed than Webb. He also had a superior 10k pb and had far better endurance over 5000m.

Yet despite all this, you expect us to believe Aouita had high 3:27/low 3:28 1500 potential, while Webb's was a second faster!?

Another abstract number crunching exercise.

Webb wasn't capable of 3:26, even in some perfect parallel universe.

moron

aouita spent a whole season concentrating on 800/1500 in '08 whereas webb ran 1 serious one in '07 & ends up with same clocking

if webb had also spent a whole season running 800/1500 in '07 in zurich/brussels/etc, he wouda had a damn good chance of running low-1'43s which means your assertion that aouita was a superior 800 runner is nonsense

as for aouita's 800 bronze, the webb of '07 form wouda had a damn good chance of medalling aginst bungei if he'd been in the race - there have been some shit 800 guys who have won 800 bronze, so what the hell woud that have proved ???

as for 10k :

moron

talking drivel without bothering to even research/watch the race

his 27'34 was a glorified training run with him & ritz sharing the pace, taking a lap or 2 out front & then letting the other guy take over, co-operating to keep pace going

if it had been a serious 10k out in hengelo, brussels, etc where he wouda followed some kenyans the whole way & not frontrunning 1/2 the time, he wouda run 27'20, no problem

now idiot, the career aim wouda been to 1 day possibly have

1'43.25 - 1'43.5 / 27'20 ability simultaneously, or as close to those as possible

using :

http://www.jundo.co.uk/

27'20 with

1'43.5 ->3'27.0 , 7'22.5 , 12'52.5

1'43.25 ->3'26.7 , 7'22.1 , 12'52.1

i have little doubt he wouda been good for 3'27 if uninjured in '08 & possibly by '10 he mighta been capable of marrying the 1'43.25 - 1'43.5/27'20 simultaneously for 3'26 potential

'his career upto '08 was one of the finest, calculated planned ones it has been my privilege to have followed'

That is just laughable

He has not retired yet but up until now he has won nothing (and never even come close to a medal in WC or OG)

You are just still wetting yourself because he ran that mile time once and it set your poxy excel race pace chart into a fit. Youi seem to have forgot he ran crap in 2006 as well

What happened to all that planning in the 2007 WC final? The world best have always been able to plan and peak for the major championships

Idiot!

Webb's 800 pb came in an orchestrated time trial where he was practically drafted for 750m (first by the rabbit, then by Reed) and ran on the inside all the way. He was given a 50.0 first lap, ideal for someone capable of low 1:43. He couldn't hang onto that pace, running the next 2 200m in 26.9 and 27.0.

Aouita ran a few 800's in 88 not for time, but to build up the strength to make an assault on the 800 & 1500 in Seoul. He ran and beat the likes of Cruz, Ereng, Gray and Barbosa that year; athletes in a different league to Reed and those Webb faced.

In his 1:43.8 he beat both Cruz and Barbosa, and was in the pack for the entire race, running all 3 bends wide. You can take off 0.7 straight away for running wide.

Aouita had a 46.9 400 pb and was the world record holder for the 1500m, with a pb more than a second faster than Webb's. There is no way Webb had anything approaching sub 47.0 sec leg speed. Only an utter fool would conclude that someone inferior at 400 and 1500 would somehow be superior at 800m!

Webb's potential at 10000 is incidental. He certainly didn't have superior endurance to Aouita over 5000m, which is far more significant to one's 1500 potential than 10k times.

Aouita was better over 800m and 5000m, ergo his potential best time at 1500m cannot be inferior to Webb's, as you have claimed.

no

idiot

it's the truth

his one good chance so far was '07, when he came 7th in a mass sprint finish to the line, missing bronze by 0.65s & silver by 0.61s

he musta been kicking himself he didn't time his sprint earlier where he certainly shouda got bronze

learn to read idiot

he ran 27'34, which is a faboulous time for a 1500'er

he also has a mouth-watering 1'43.8 in his career

read above

he timed his sprint wrong

a basic error which he shouda learnt from if he'd contested '08

deanouk wrote:

Aouita had a 46.9 400 pb and was the world record holder for the 1500m, with a pb more than a second faster than Webb's. There is no way Webb had anything approaching sub 47.0 sec leg speed. Only an utter fool would conclude that someone inferior at 400 and 1500 would somehow be superior at 800m!

Didn't Webb run a 47 400m in high school?

Get Real Real wrote:

I am an "idiot detector," and you are a certified idiot.

First, no one injected Rupp into this discussion but you.

Second, "you people?" WTF?

A few people here have rooted for and hoped Rupp could dip under 13:00 this year. He didn't. Did they pull out their hair? No.

Rupp has consistently been 1-2 years behind where some people hope he will be -- and he ALWAYS get's there.

Stick to your Willis willy sucking and leave bashing Rupp's fans out of this.

Personally, I hope Willis does well. And I hope Rupp does well, and Solinsky, and Teg, and Ritz, and Evan, and, and, and, and...

The rest of you can just grow up with your individual athlete hate.

You clown face, I never "bashed" anyone... just used them for comparison purposes. I'm sure we all wish all those athletes well.

My point in bringing up Teg / Rupp / Solinsky, was that all the guys have done, or been anointed as capable of by the letsrun masses "you people", sub 13min 5kms. Yet many on this thread are arguing Willis, has no chance, and it simply beggars belief.

"individual athlete hate" "willis willy sucking" " I hope willis does well"

You are symptomatic of EVERYTHING that is wrong with the world.

Just because he went to school in the US doesn't make him American. He's a stinkin foreigner for heaven's sakes.

hmmmmmmm wrote:

this strategy makes perfect sense...

Willis is an olympic silver medalist at 1500, he'll be pushing 30 by the time 2012 rolls around, his plan is to take one more shot at gold then move on

hes not going to have the quickness to run the 1500 at 2016 but he may be able to medal in a tacitcal 5000

not sure whay people have such difficulty understanding this

Here are the medal winners for recent Oly. 5000m and their age when they ran. Might be off a year depending on what month they were born in.

1984

GOLD Saïd Aouita, MAR 13:05.59 - 25

SILVER Markus Ryffel, SUI 13:07.54 - 29

BRONZE Antόnio Leitão, POR 13:09.20 - no clue

1988

GOLD John Ngugi, KEN 13:11.70 - 26

SILVER Dieter Baumann, FRG 13:15.52 - 23

BRONZE Hansjörg Kunze, GDR 13:15.73 - 29

1992

GOLD Dieter Baumann, FRG 13:12.52 - 27

SILVER Paul Bitok, KEN 13:12.71 - 22

BRONZE Fita Bayissa, ETH 13:13.03 - 20

1996

GOLD Vénuste Niyongabo, BDI 13:07.96 - 23

SILVER Paul Bitok, KEN 13:08.16 - 26

BRONZE Khalid Boulami, MAR 13:08.37 - 27

2000

GOLD Million Wolde, ETH 13:35.49 - 21

SILVER Ali Saïdi Sief, ALG 13:36.20 - 22

BRONZE Brahim Lahlafi, MAR 13:36.47 - 32

2004

GOLD Hicham El Guerrouj, MAR 13:14.39 - 30

SILVER Kenenisa Bekele, ETH 13:14.59 - 22

BRONZE Eliud Kipchoge, KEN 13:15.10 - 20

2008

GOLD Kenenisa Bekele, ETH 12:57.82 - 26

SILVER Eliud Kipchoge, KEN 13:02.80 - 24

BRONZE Edwin Soi, KEN 13:06.22 - 22

Not a lot of 30 year olds in those results....

Doesn't seem unreasonable to suggest Willis won't have much of a shot in 2016 at the 5000m.

I wrote a whole post on past olympic 5000m medalists and their age...for some reason it didn't show up.

I'm not going to redo it, but the gist of it was that since 1984, only 2 people have won a medal in the olympic 5000m over the age of 30.

El G at 30 - gold in 2004

and Brahim Lahlafi as 32 - bronze in 2000

Doesn't seem unreasonable to suggest that Willis probably doesn't have a great shot.

Surprise! wrote:

I wrote a whole post on past olympic 5000m medalists and their age...for some reason it didn't show up.

I'm not going to redo it, but the gist of it was that since 1984, only 2 people have won a medal in the olympic 5000m over the age of 30.

El G at 30 - gold in 2004

and Brahim Lahlafi as 32 - bronze in 2000

Doesn't seem unreasonable to suggest that Willis probably doesn't have a great shot.

but the point is that he will have a better shot at 5000 than he does at 1500...

I thinks its a fairly well accepted premise that as runners age (at least the majority or runners) they lose quickness and foot speed faster than they lose endurance

therefore it makes a lot of sense for willis to consider moving up in distance in the twilight of his career, where he will still have the footspeed to compete (or at least will not have to deal with guys as quick) and has a chance to develop his endurance...