Great feedback guys.
Average Joe, I did not know that. Its something to definitely think about and be prepared for. Thank you for the heads up.
Pablo, what you said is something I struggle with all the time. I mean, really, if I ran 5-10 seconds a mile slower then my perfectly executed race pace, am I really going to "feel good" come 20 miles and be able to hammer the last 10k? Unlikely. My last 10k, whether I've been running 5:55 or 6:00 pace through 20 is likely to be pretty close to the same. Or maybe not. I just don't know. Right now I'm leaning towards try and hammer the last 11 miles at a faster pace then the first 15, but I just don't know how realistic this is.
My 1:11:00 20k points towards 2:38 according to McMillan. I really think I could run 1:14:30 for a half, though (even though that's a little faster then my 20k would suggest... though not by much). A 1:14:30 is equiv to a 2:37 flat according to McMillan, or 6:00/mile.
So now the question is... do I go for even 6:00s from the gun and, if you are right, likely fade and run 2:39? Do I run 5:56s and likely fade to run 2:37?
If I don't fade, can I negative split at 6:00 pace? Is it possible I could hold 5:56s and not fade and get under 2:36? Is it possible if I go 5:56s I blow up but I don't at 6:00 pace?
All questions that I need to answer the next few weeks. Not only answer them, but be confident in those answers! I feel more and more confident every day, and think I can handle 5:56 pace. Though not confident enough (yet) to make the break from what I know will be a big group of guys running 6:00 pace...