GALEN RUPP will run sub 13 minutes 5000m GUARANTEED in 2010

MAPIV wrote:

Ventolin wrote:

rupp has a shockingly good 1'49.87i just from last year

a rule of thumb conversion outdoors is 101/102 -> ~ 1'48.7

Ventolin, you need to do your homework before you start writing all this nonsense...Rupp's indoor 800 was on an oversized track at Washington, and your conversion is just not applicable here.

In your world, Rupp has already run under 13 minutes, so of course, in your world, he'll be able to run 12:45. You'll make sure of it, once you've twisted his real time due to your arbitrarily determined calculations...

True, but I also doubt there are many people that can run 1:49 doing the kind of mileage and workouts that Rupp was. It's hard to have enough speed and power to go under 1:50 when your doing 5,000 workouts and putting in 85-90 miles a week at 6 minute pace or better.

It's fair to think that if Rupp backed it down to 60-70 miles a week and put in 800/1500 workouts (wheating like workouts) that he'd find at least a second in there don't you think?

Ventolin3 and MAPIV

are certainly the two worst poster on Letsrun. I can remember when I've run across two posters that have to attack others repeatedly in order to deliver their patheic points.

Vent3 how long did it take you to come up with perspective in order to agree with yourself?

stuck with match.com wrote: Your dumb equations have got you thinking too much

Speaking of dumb questions screwing up your brain, let me refer you to your own speeding ticket thread.

stuck with match.com wrote:

Excuse me Ventolin, but Galen only lead for about 23% percent of the race. What Donkey work are you referring to? He at best would have gone 27:05. Your dumb equations have got you thinking too much

That 23% was the donkey work, which is why the rabbits were falling off pace prior to it.

Anyone who has run in a fast 5000 and 10000 knows the toughest part to get thru mentally and physically is 3-4K in a 5000 and about 6500-9000 in a 10000. Taking the pace in either of those spots and keeping it on a record pace is certainly "donkey work".

Perspectivation, you're missing the point. When Ventolin does these calculations, he is assuming the athlete can currently run the range of times he utilized to determine his potential at a certain distance. I am NOT disputing whether Rupp could run 1:48 if he devoted his life to it. I am disputing Ventolin's giving Rupp a 1:48 based on an oversized indoor track time of 1:49.87. In order for Ventolin's calculations to make any sense, he is assuming that Rupp can run 27:00 or whatever and 1:48 when he steps on the track for a 5000...

HesAJoke wrote:

Ventolin3 and MAPIV

are certainly the two worst poster on Letsrun. I can remember when I've run across two posters that have to attack others repeatedly in order to deliver their patheic points.

Vent3 how long did it take you to come up with perspective in order to agree with yourself?

You must not read the boards much if you think Vent man and I are one and the same. I often don't agree with his theories and never agree with the insults, but I do agree with some of his points here on Rupp.

And while I typically turn away from his posts once I start seeing the "moron" etc. insults roll out, I do like to mull over his numbers for whatever they are worth.

MAPIV wrote:

Perspectivation, you're missing the point. When Ventolin does these calculations, he is assuming the athlete can currently run the range of times he utilized to determine his potential at a certain distance. I am NOT disputing whether Rupp could run 1:48 if he devoted his life to it. I am disputing Ventolin's giving Rupp a 1:48 based on an oversized indoor track time of 1:49.87. In order for Ventolin's calculations to make any sense, he is assuming that Rupp can run 27:00 or whatever and 1:48 when he steps on the track for a 5000...

Right, and that I do disagree with for the most part. I would say that any time Rupp is ready to PR for 5000 I'd bet he is very near 27:00 shape and being able to run 1:49. He won't be too far off on his strength and he'll have likely gotten well into speedwork to run 12:5X. But unlike ventolin I don't think all of his tools will be equally sharp and polished at the same time, that is impossible.

The kidd ran 4:01.8 mile, 13:37 5000m, and 29:09 10000m all in high school. Easy to see why some posters think he will be the fastest American ever at 3000m, 5000m, and 10000m in his career.

It going to be exciting to see how Galen, German, and Sam Chelenga (already applied for US citizenship), Chris, Morgan U., Jenny, Molly, Alysia J, etc continue to develop over the next several years.

Will be interesting to see Galen achieve the sub 13 minute 5000m he was on pace for last week...and how fast Molly and Lisa K can run in their upcoming 5000m?

12:50 for Rupp? BAAAhahahahaha

Galen Rupp will become the 2nd fastest American in his next 5000m at 12:55.23, narrowly missing the AR due to getting boxed in last lap and having to run in lane 3 around the last turn

i put a caveat on whether he coud be in 1'49/27'00 shape simultaneously

the shining example woud be webb who ran 27'34 & 1'43 in successive seasons - if he couda done it in the same, he couda gone 3'27

even if rupp's 1'49.7i was on an oversized track ( i assume a 250 or 300m track ), it will be slower than a 400m track under same weather conditions/no wind & outdoors woud still be good for close to 1'49.0

IF, he has 1'49.0 - 1'49.5 / 27'00 - 27'05 ability currently, then he he can ultimately go

1'49.5 / 27'05 ->3'34.9 , 7'30.9 , 12'57.4

1'49.0 / 27'00 ->3'34.0 , 7'29.2 , 12'54.7

if we are talking an upcoming 3k, then 7'30 woud be his current ultimate target

Rupp will end up as one of the top US talents of his generation. There is however a mistake made if anyone is building hype and predicting times based on a DNF. That is nonsensical. Salazar is reported as saying Rupp was tripped along the rail. Rupp briefly indicated it came from behind. I haven't seen a photograph or footage of this yet so it is all conjecture. At the moment we're looking through field work that may have caught something on the back end. But be logical, Rupp on pace for 12:55 through 4000m is not a guarantee for sub 13 minutes.

Solinsky though has created a serious buzz internationally. Granted 10000m hasn't been contested enough this summer to yield fast times, but Solinsky's 12.56 and 12.55 are truly the talk of European T&F. Many are drawing comparisons between the size and fierce competitiveness of Mottram and Solinsky, dreaming up a Aussie/American assault on the African leaders.

While I am on it, one comparison cannot be made: Rupp to Mottram. AT the 2006 CG Mottram tumbled "hard" after a trip from behind, yet popped up and hammered in a finish.

watch from 6:40

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvL8C7-JIOI

iaaf insider wrote:

Solinsky though has created a serious buzz internationally. Granted 10000m hasn't been contested enough this summer to yield fast times, but Solinsky's 12.56 and 12.55 are truly the talk of European T&F. Many are drawing comparisons between the size and fierce competitiveness of Mottram and Solinsky, dreaming up a Aussie/American assault on the African leaders.

While I am on it, one comparison cannot be made: Rupp to Mottram. AT the 2006 CG Mottram tumbled "hard" after a trip from behind, yet popped up and hammered in a finish.

Mottram seems to be finished. And the "fierce competitiveness" of Solinsky? Solinsky who has never won a USA title, and 3/4 times can't qualify for our international track teams? Research the career of Steve Holman.

Galen Rupp was definitely on pace to finish the Stockholm 5000m in 12:54-12:57; therefore, with a bette paced race and staying out of trouble- Galen should able to run 12:51.8 - 12:52.4 his next 5000m.

KrystalClear wrote: Galen should able to run 12:51.8 - 12:52.4 his next 5000m.

Yawn! Just another troll attempting to bait people. 1/10

If he gets under it'll be by a small amount. He's not going to run 12:55 his first time under 13 in my opinion. But then again Ritz ran 12:56 off 27:22 tactical world champs. Galen is coming off of a 27:10, 13:10 season so far so it wouldn't surprise me too much. I think he'll get under 13 though. But who will break the AR in the 3k? I think Solinsky will get it this season as well as the 5k.

My personal opinion (who cares) is that Galen should have taken 2010 off (particularly after World Indoors) kinda the way Teg has. 3 big years coming up (2011, 2012, 2013).

An elite level runner is like a field...it needs to lay fallow once in a while.

jadjf;a wrote:

If he gets under it'll be by a small amount. He's not going to run 12:55 his first time under 13 in my opinion. But then again Ritz ran 12:56 off 27:22 tactical world champs. Galen is coming off of a 27:10, 13:10 season so far so it wouldn't surprise me too much. I think he'll get under 13 though. But who will break the AR in the 3k? I think Solinsky will get it this season as well as the 5k.

Granted every race is different and his next 5000 may not go as well, or it may go even better, but from where he was a 4K, actually moving up and getting ready for the final drive he would have had to rig up to only sneak under 13:00. If he was only going to run 12:59, that would mean Solinsky was going to put 4 seconds on him on the last lap, and the leaders more than that.

Solinsky could have still put a huge gap on him over the last lap with Rupp coming in at 12:57.X.

And then there is the possibility that Solinsky wasn't going to put any daylight on Rupp.

It's all speculation, but with simply going of my experience as a racer and long time observer of racing my guess is Rupp was safely going under 13:00 and I think he would have been in it until at least 200 to go.

His 13:10 was a rust buster and his training wasn't going all that great going into it. Remember that Teg usually opened up around 13:2X every time he'd go 13:0X (even 12:58) as the summer progressed.