Christin Wurth Thomas wins in Paris!

just sayin!!! wrote:

Some Coked Up Brit wrote:

Personally I don't think going from 8:56 to 8:28 in one season can be described as "gradually chipping away at her PR". Which one do you think did this, Alminova or Dobriskey?

Really, if you think Dobriskey is on the juice, please do let us know why.

I meant 1500m progressions. I don't think Dobriskey is doping, and I think it is possible that Alminova is not either. Her 1500m progression is not crazy like Soboleva's or Fomenko's were. She didn't drop 10 sec the year after she switched coaches. I think Alminova's progression looks more like Dobriskey's.

You cited Alminova's 3000m progression... Just curious do you think Dobriskey is incapable of similar improvement?

(1) I cited Alminova's 3000m progression because it is there: evidence. It's all part of a picture which we use to make a case. As an attorney I would be negligent if I were just to ignore a piece of evidence. Feel free to ignore it if you prefer.

(2) Another pieces of evidence are that she is a phenomenal female Russian mid-distance runner in an era where SEVEN other phenomenal female Russian mid-distance runners were found to be substituting urine in drugs tests, including medal winners like Soboleva and Tomoshova.

(3) She has tested positive for pseudofedrine, on the banned list.

(4) On 16 July she wins the Russian champs in 4 flat, beating second place by 4 seconds. Then she travels to Paris the next day and steps of the plane and beats a world class field on 17 July with 3.57, a PB and doesn't look tired: sprinting well clear of second place by more than two seconds.

I agree - a court of law is not going to convict on this basis. I also agree, as you say, that it's possible that she's innocent. It would just surprise me if she were, just as, prior to Ramzi's convictions, it would have surprised me if he were innocent. Perhaps you were one of the people who was surprised by Ramzi being dirty and thought, when you saw him win WC Gold at 800 and 1500 in Helsink "he's just a great runner"?

I just don't think Dobriskey is nearly so suspicious as Alminova. Dobriskey's ultimate potential is hard to judge because unlike Alminova she never time-trials or front-runs, but always sits and kicks. I don't think Dobriskey will ever be close to a 8:28 runner - I don't think she has that endurance and she is injury prone. She could definitely improve her 800m time, but she never races seriously at 800m. I hope she can improve her 1,500m time this year - I think she could go 3:58.

I do not choose to ignore the 3000m progressions, however this distance is not the specialty of either Alminova or Dobriskey. It is "weak evidence".

The Russians who were caught for urine sample substitution had very sketchy progressions (see Soboleva and Fomenko) Alminova's is more regular. While I do wonder if she is doping, I also wonder why she wasn't caught with the other Russians if that is the case. The IAAF suspected Soboleva et al because they were submitting out of competition samples in a way that was TOO timely. This led the IAAF to start performing extra DNA analysis on the urine samples, which uncovered the urine substitution. If Alminova had been using the same system of urine substitution, she would have been caught too.