rating 5k times, minute by minute

ASB wrote:

15 to 16 win State? What State? I ran 14:42 3 mile cross country and came in 4th in my league. Granted, fastest league in SoCal in 1976, but still. 15 to 16 is pretty slow for a state winner at 5K.

Not all courses are created equal.

A poster on the first page had it right - cross country 5k times don't really tell the tale, so what would be the equivalent track times for 5k and 3200m/2 mile?

I'd say 15:00 ~ 9:15. On the cross country course, that would usually be 15:20-16:10.

ASB wrote:

15 to 16 win State? What State? I ran 14:42 3 mile cross country and came in 4th in my league. Granted, fastest league in SoCal in 1976, but still. 15 to 16 is pretty slow for a state winner at 5K.

A 17:08 just won the national championships.

The above distribution is confounded by the fact that people in the US are unfit. Here is an estimated distribution for a very fit population of men aged 18 to 33 (extrapolated from a combination of Japan's best 10k times and from a study of the Ache people in South America).

Mean 5k time for men aged 18 to 33---19:00

Two thirds come in between------------17:30 and 20:30

95% come in between------------------16:30 and 22:30

% WR speed--Top X%----1 in X men----200m-----400m-----800m-----1 mi*----2 mi*----5 km-----10 km

63%-------------74%------------------------30.42-----68.45-----2:39------5:50-----12:29----20:00----41:39

65%-------------63%------------------------29.66-----66.74-----2:35------5:41-----12:10----19:30----40:37

66%-------------50%------------------------28.90-----65.03-----2:31------5:32-----11:52----19:00----39:34----average young man

68%-------------37%------------------------28.14-----63.32-----2:27------5:24-----11:33----18:30----38:32

70%-------------25%-------4---------------27.38-----61.60-----2:23------5:15-----11:14----18:00----37:29----top 5 in average Ache tribe

72%-------------14%-------7---------------26.62-----59.89-----2:19------5:06-----10:55----17:30----36:27

74%-------------7%--------14--------------25.86-----58.18-----2:15------4:57-----10:37----17:00----35:24----fastest in average Ache tribe

76%-------------3%--------33--------------25.10-----56.47-----2:11------4:49-----10:18----16:30----34:22

79%-------------1%--------100-------------24.34-----54.76-----2:07------4:40-----9:59-----16:00----33:19

81%-------------------------453-------------23.58-----53.05----2:03------4:31------9:40----15:30-----32:17

84%-------------------------2600-----------22.82-----51.34-----1:59------4:22------9:22----15:00----31:14

87%-------------------------22,000---------22.05-----49.63-----1:55------4:14------9:03----14:30----30:12

90%-------------------------300,000-------21.29-----47.91-----1:51------4:05------8:44----14:00----29:09

93%-------------------------7 million-------20.53----46.20-----1:47------3:56------8:25-----13:30----28:07----olympic finals

97%-------------------------342 million---19.77----44.49-----1:43------3:47------8:07-----13:00----27:04----gold medal

100%-----------------------------------------19.19----43.18-----1:41------3:41------7:53-----12:37----26:18----world record

*Converted from 1500m and 3000m times

This spread is probably what you would expect if everybody realized his full running potential. Looking at the 'average' guy's times, they look just somewhat slower than what you would expect from a DIII college soccer player.

One way to define a 'serious' runner might be such that you have enough talent that your VO2max (or your sprint speed) could be useful to your tribe if you were a hunter gatherer. This should put you roughly in the top 3 to 5 young men in your tribe, so about at 70% of world record pace (18:00 for the 5k).

Persistence hunting with the top 3 men in a Khoi-San tribe:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=826HMLoiE_o

Study of the Ache:

http://anthropology.missouri.edu/people/walkerpubs/phys12.pdf

Source of Japanese 10k times:

http://www.alltime-athletics.com/men.htm

Thanks for spreading the wisdom. Hopelessness in mankind diminished by .1%.

curious little thread. interesting discussion. i think the original post does make a good point about 20+ minutes being not really worthy of discussion. above that level, people tend to PR by *minutes* at a time. above that level you're simply untrained.

I don't think so. I know a guy who put in 50-60 miles per week and still had a hard time breaking 21-minute.

i hope your friend is 50 years old or otherwise deformed in some way. i don't see how it's possible for a young healthy person to run that many miles and not improve past that.

I started XC my sophomore year. My first 3 races all were between 25-30 minutes. After I learned the pace for races I managed sub 20 in my sectionals race. I practiced with the #1 on our team and did the same schedule as he did. Yet his time was always at least 2 minutes better than mine. His PR was 14:30 while mine was 17:15. I had asthma growing up but I doubt that impacts this in any way. Some people are just good racers or naturally gifted?

I'm going to go ahead and create ratings for the women posters on here to judge themselves as well.

24+: beginners, old, non-competitive, etc.

23-24: decent JV high school runner

22-23: very good JV runner, mediocre varsity runner

21-22: average varsity runner

20-21: competitive varsity runner

19-20: very good varsity runner, will get recruited by colleges

18-19: state level varsity runner, recruited by D1 colleges

17-18: nationally ranked, will win most high school races, average for college

16-17: elite high school, solid D1 college

15-16: elite college

14-15: elite on the national stage, OT contender

pfft wrote:

12:30-13:00 World Beater

13:00-13:30 Professional

13:30-14:00 Elite

14:00-14:30 College Elite

14:30-15:00 DIII Elite

15:00-15:30 High School Elite

15:30-16:00 High School All-State

16:00-16:30 Stud for most High School Teams teams

16:30-17:00 High School Varsity

17:00-17:30 Top JV/Bottom Varsity High School

17:30-18:00 Good JV runner in High School

18:00-19:00 Average high school senior

19:00-20:00 Average male high schooler/Very good girl

20:00-22:00 Respectable Road Runner

22:00-25:00 Trained Runner

25:00+ Non-Competitive runner

agree 100%

22 minutes - 7 minutes miles - you are in good physical shape

21 minutes - a good parkrun time and an excellent result for a female

20 minutes - 6 minute miles - takes consistent training for most or natural ability at sports

19 minutes - decent speed - out of reach for 95% of runners

18 minutes - a big jump since it is 5:50-6:10 minute miles

17 minutes - takes talent and/or good training

16 minutes - a big jump - most will never run this fast

15 minutes - takes dedication and/or a lot of talent

14 minutes - national class and the ceiling for most even with 100+ mile weeks

13 minutes - world class and wins most races

12 minutes - world class and impossible for almost everyone