C/M Runner wrote:
Ivy Watcher wrote:Someone might want to be paying attention to the well balanced Columbia women's team after their performances at the Armory Saturday.
Does anyone think it is worthwhile to do a pre-meet score analysis among the different teams, based on what is posted at DirectAthletics? Or should we [forgo] it for this season?
Hi. Just back for a second. I don't know whether it's "worthwhile" to do a score analysis, but I've already done one for my own amusement, based on results through this past weekend. So, with the usual caveats, here it is:
Men
Cornell 197
Princeton 176
Dartmouth 46
Penn 44
Columbia 38
Harvard 34
Yale 22
Brown 19
The meet should go down to the relays. Another critical event: the heptathlon. Some guys run it for the first time at Heps, so it's a tougher event to prognosticate; but it's still the key for Cornell's edging Princeton. Do you have Huber do the hep? Or do you have him focus on the three(!) other events where he's ranked in the top four? Or mix-and-match? (And, given the squad-size limitations, can you afford to enter a bunch of guys who are "just" heptathletes?)
Meanwhile, Cornell's Wade is ranked first in the 800 and 1000, an impossible double, so there go some virtual points in the real meet. Still, it seems like RoJo's mid-/distance crew's been making a lot of progress over these last few weeks, so he may have good coverage by his other guys--it'll be interesting to see how he distributes them. (That 800/3k double for Wyner last year would have been a genius move, had Wyner not been stepped on and injured.)
The fight for third place in the meet should be a good one. Dartmouth has a slight advantage in the virtual scoring, and will be at home. I'll still pick Penn, because they cover more events and have more opportunities to score, but I could be dead wrong there.
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Women
Columbia 115
Princeton 110
Cornell 94
Harvard 77
Brown 58
Penn 37
Dartmouth 24
Yale 10
Columbia's women must indeed now be rated at least a co-favorite. Not only do they have more (virtual) points on DA; a good number of those points are the "big-meet" variety i.e. likely to hold up even on a bad day. (A 1.82 HJer will score big points even if she "only" jumps 1.75 at Heps. Et cetera.)
The only reason I wouldn't call Columbia the *sole* favorites is Princeton's ability to squeeze more points from the distances--which, however, is not as striking an "if" as it was a few weeks back. Columbia is indeed well balanced, scoring in 13 events in the virtual meet (matching Princeton, and one event fewer than Cornell). Harvard and especially Brown have the potential to score big points in some events, and could be serious spoilers.
But most likely the meet could/should hang in the balance until the relays. The Cornell women frequently seem to come up big for those. In any case, those should be tremendous races; I would not be shocked to see three (or more) teams close to 9:00 in the 4x8, for instance, even though it wouldn't be on the fastest track. (Example: Though their seasonal best is 9:17, Cornell has five women at/under 2:15 in the open 800.)
All in all, should be a tremendous meet on both sides. I'll hope to follow it on the Ivy Track website.