NCAA men's individual favorites and their odds

are we talking about the percentage chances of individuals winning.... the odds we would give them to win so to speak (although poorly worded)... or the odds that say vegas would assign to them because those are extremely different.

define "extremely different"

This is a difficult year to pick an individual champion. Chelanga obviously is not in the same shape as he was last year. I favor him slightly less because of the lack of domination from last year. Derrick has improved, I will give him that, but everyone is basing their opinions about him winning NCAAs on the Pre Nats race because he beat an 80% Chelanga. He is a good runner with a great shot at winning though I dont think he will improve anymore this cross season. Puskedra cant win the NCAA championship because he lacks a kick.He does have an incredible engine that will keep him in the top 6 I believe. The dark horse and my personal favorite, Fernandez, still has not shown us anything really except that he can complete a 10k. Of those 4, I see Fernandez being able to make significant leaps in fitness above the other 3 by the time NCAAs roll around.

Fernandez for the win followed by Derrick with Chelanga finishing somewhere in 4th thru 9th. GLTA.

nexis151 wrote:

... Chelanga finishing somewhere in 4th thru 9th. GLTA.

Chelanga 4th or worse?!? Really? I guess it is possible if he just 'quits' if/when Derrick passes him.

I do not believe that Puskedra will win but I also do not think it is so impossible as others have suggested. So, he doesn't seem to have a great last 300m. So what? If he's smart (and everything else is going for him on the day) he 'kicks' from 1200m out and sees if anyone else has as much left. Remember, the best kick isn't always about who has the biggest engine (most speed). It is more often about who has the most left in the tank.

All that and I still believe that Chelanga should be considered the favorite with Derrick, Fernandez and Puskedra having non-trivial chances. Could anyone else win? Possibly, but I think that the odds are pretty long outside those four.

Just my 2p

Derrick - 25% chance to win

Heath - 15% chance to win

Chelenga - 10% chance to win

Puskedra - 5% chance to win

Fernandez - 85% chance to fall down

My top 10 prediction:

1 Samuel Chelanga

2 Chris Derrick

3 German Fernandez

4 Luke Puskedra

5 David McNeill

6 John Kosgei

7 Andrew Bumbalough

8 David McCarthy

9 Hassan Mead

10 Tyson David

11 Jordan Kyle

12 Brandon Bethke

13 Elliot Heath

14 Alfred Kipchumba

15 Girma Mescheco

16 Ryan Vail

17 Ryan Sheridan

18 Andy Baker

19 Jacob Kirwa

20 Barnabus Kirui

top 20 rather

Really Certain wrote:

...

Fernandez - 85% chance to fall down

Wow, you're funny! I mean really, really funny! Did you ever consider a career as a comedian? Because you're definitely funny. And clever!

Sorry, I just can't get over how funny you are.

um your faaaaaaaarked wrote:

those are the stupidest odds i've ever seen, I'll put a $1000 on all 5 of them and I'm still GUARANTEED to walk away with $12,000 at worst!!!

thats funny wrote:

That's really funny that you called the OP stupid when you think you'd walk away with at least $12,000.

Think about it for a minute. Still don't get it? Keep thinking.

I'm starting with $17,000, so who's stupid now?

Fernandez: 3:2

Chelanga: 3:1

Derrick: 3:1

Puskedra: 5:1

Bethke: 10:1

Field: 12:1

um your faaaaaaarked wrote:

um your faaaaaaaarked wrote:

those are the stupidest odds i've ever seen, I'll put a $1000 on all 5 of them and I'm still GUARANTEED to walk away with $12,000 at worst!!!

thats funny wrote:

That's really funny that you called the OP stupid when you think you'd walk away with at least $12,000.

Think about it for a minute. Still don't get it? Keep thinking.

I'm starting with $17,000, so who's stupid now?

Ummm...you.

That was easy.