Will Lagat upset Bekele in his run for the Jackpot this Friday in Paris?

Sheffield/Gateshead is a Grand Prix meet. Monaco and Stockholm are Super Grand Prix meets. These aren't tiny all-comers in Leuven. Stockholm gives out $10,000 diamonds for new meet records.

You were looking at his annual bests but hadn't thought that he could have run sub 7:30 multiple times in a single season. Which is exactly what he did.

Rupp has 7:44 speed.

not so true wrote:

ahah, YO - I don't think I've read a single post from you that you weren't bringing a runner down in some way. More often then not quite blatantly.

What's your deal? Stuck on an old PR? Gave it up and now you wish you hadn't? Chill out man, life is not that bad.

Solinsky may not be in AR form, on the other hand he may not be that far off it in a great race. He'll be in over his head here, but if guys are finishing in 7:30 I could see him getting down to 7:33-7:34.

I'm not bringing him down, I'm pointing out how ridiculous it is to think a guy who has yet to break 13:10 and has only run 7:37 this year can approach the record of someone who ran 12:58 and is probably the best American distance runner of all-time. I am rooting for Solinsky to run well, as you said a 7:33-34 would be awesome. If I said Lagat was in WR shape and someone said there was nothing he had done to indicate he could do, would that be bringing Lagat down? Try to understand where I'm coming from here bud.

on the runs wrote:

7:32 indoors isn't great?

Not when you are a 3.26 man with only 1.46 speed. With that kind of endurance Lagat should be running 7.22-24...

jingle bowels wrote:

on the runs wrote:

7:32 indoors isn't great?

Not when you are a 3.26 man with only 1.46 speed. With that kind of endurance Lagat should be running 7.22-24...

why isnt it possible for a 3:26 guy? the world record is 7:20 by a 3:29ish guy

wow hold up wrote:

why isnt it possible for a 3:26 guy? the world record is 7:20 by a 3:29ish guy

hmm I dont know what 3:26 guy are we talking about? I did not know that there is currently a 3:26 guy in the world of milers right now. Oh yeah, thats because there isnt. Lagat is NOT a 3:26 guy. Lagat WAS a 3:26 guy. Lagat has gotten older. Atbest he is a 3:29 guy now. Then you say a 3:29 guy has the 3k WR at 7:20. Do you know what a 7:20 3k is? Its basically like someone running 3:24 for 1500. its probably the toughest WR currently out there. When El G ran 3:26 people were like oh yeah surely he will get Komons 3k record now. Well guess what, he attempted, and failed. Why? because 7:20 is EFFIN CRAZY. Lets look at the all time 3k list and how many people there are between your predicted times for Lagat (7:22-7:24). hmm theres 1 person EL G. The only guy whos got any chance to run in the low 7:20 range when healthy is Saif Shaheen.

As has been said, the 1:46.00 is not likely to be indicitave of his true potentional at the time. When Lagat set his PB in 2001 in Brussels, had he entered the 800m instead of the 1500m, he very well could have run 1:43 something. And now, Lagat probably tops out at 3:29.

jingle bowels wrote:

on the runs wrote:

7:32 indoors isn't great?

Not when you are a 3.26 man with only 1.46 speed. With that kind of endurance Lagat should be running 7.22-24...

Lagat got out kicked by Kogo in a 5k this year. Bekele has outkicked Kogo in a 5k this year.

Therefore, Bekele will outkick Lagat in the 3k this year.

i could have sworn lagat was the 2007 5k wc champ....

bizarrie wrote:

i could have sworn lagat was the 2007 5k wc champ....

Yes, he was, but Bekele of course was not in that race. In the olympics last year, Bekele kicked his butt (though Lagat was injured. However, I doubt Lagat could have beaten Bekele last in that race even if healthy).

Should be a great race, and very close. But I'm picking Bekele (however Lagat will finally get AR).

"His injury set him back this year and I dont believe he is in 7:2X shape"

What makes him not in 7:2x form. Did you not see the race in rome when he ran an "easy" 12:56.2x for the win? Besides I wouldn't put too much stock into what bekele says about his fitness anyway. He "says" he is not yet in full fitness which I believe is bulls**t. He always does this. I wouldn't be surprised to see him run a 7:26 or something like that.

Apparently many who watch in the post drug era clearly underestimate what 7:25 looks like, that is all I will say.

7:20 was one of the dirtiest marks ever.

First you have to get rabbitts who can run 1600 in sub 4, then to 2K in sub 5, the close in well under sub 4 pace.

These things use to happen under EPO era. They do not anymore.

By the way Bekele is never losing to Lagat,as much as that may displease many, he closes in what he needs to do to get the job done.

Best of all time no questions asked.And I am not even a fan.

He can close in 53 off solid fractions, 52 off donkey fractions.

trialswatcher wrote:

Apparently many who watch in the post drug era clearly underestimate what 7:25 looks like, that is all I will say.

7:20 was one of the dirtiest marks ever.

First you have to get rabbitts who can run 1600 in sub 4, then to 2K in sub 5, the close in well under sub 4 pace.

These things use to happen under EPO era. They do not anymore.

Thank you for helping some of these people realize how nasty 7:20 is. No one (Bekele or Lagat) will touch that anytime soon. The only guy I would put my money on to touch that record is Shaheen if he gets back into 7:53 3k steeple shape (another dirty record). Although I do disagree with your take on Bekele beating Lagat. But this will continue to go back and forth.

By the way I think we should all just enjoy this right now. These are two of the great runners of all time. The fastest 5k/10k (and will probably take over the marathon if he runs it) and the second fastest 1500m runner ever going head to head at a semi-neutral distance. Should be a fun one.

On a side note does anyone have a video of the 1500 PR for Lagat, I don't think I've ever seen it and it is one of the great runs in history.

Notice where I said 7.22-24 is what Lagat "should be running" with his 800/1500 conversion.. of course he cannot and will not and that is what is odd.

I have no doubt about the difficulty of running 7.22, perhaps you should read more carefully before making these assumptions.

on the runs wrote:

Really? Because I saw him break 7:30 three times in 2007:

7:26 in England

7:29 in Monaco

7:25 in Stockholm

really? you followed him to all of those venues and personally saw him? or did you just type "bekele 3k 2007 results" into your search engine?

i know youre a fan, but please dont confuse the average fan like you who reasearches results, with the #1 running enthusiast in the world (me) who actually does travel to these venues and watch him compete. yes. i personally saw him at each of his 3k competitions last year.

its much easier for bekele to step down in distance than it is for lagat to step up. lagat hasnt ran anything over a mile all year long. bekele will set the national record in Paris. he will go out at wr pace. lagat will be on his tail until 1700meters, then bekele will speed up. the gap will wider to 160 meters after 5.5 laps. then bekeles gone. say sionora (sp?) to bernard lagat after 2100 meters when he realizes he just doesnt have the anaerobic enfurance that bekele, the 2nd greatest track runner of all time (Tergat being the 1st) has. Tergat is God, and Bekele is Abraham. Gods apprentice. everyone say sionora to Lagat, fuccin fake ass american.

guys wrote:

On a side note does anyone have a video of the 1500 PR for Lagat, I don't think I've ever seen it and it is one of the great runs in history.

That is honestly one of the most beautiful three minutes and twenty six seconds I've ever seen...