Adam Goucher as marathoner - predictions here

Yeah, too bad there's not similar money in XC as in road racing. But I think strong XC runners tend to make good road racers in the 5 mile to half marathon range.

I never did come across any explanation of why he skipped USAs when he was qualified, but the obvious answers are that he was hurt, or just knew he wouldn't be able to run sub 28.

Twoinchkiller wrote:

He just doesn't have the mechanics or the durability to run the distance well. You can't "muscle" your way through 26 miles the way you can through a 5 or 10k. His style suited him back when he was in 13:10 shape but, it's never been pretty (or economical enough for a good marathon). It makes me sad when someone turns to such a beautiful event (the Marathon) WAY TOO late in their career looking for some sort of revival. If you want to run a good marathon, you need to do it while you're still capable of running PR's in the shorter distances. On a perfect day, Adam will hit maybe 2:13-15 but, I don't think he'll ever make it through a build-up intact. Training for a marathon is very hard. I do wish him well however. He is a nice guy after all.

-The Killer

I agree. I didn't know how to say it... but you put it perfectly.

Curious: In 'Running with the Buffaloes', Goucher was stated as running a 22 mile hard tempo. I think it was around 5:15-5:20 per mile, but not sure. Anyone remember??

$$$ man wrote:

I still think 12K cross is a very good event for him. Perhaps he could do a fall marathon and then take a break and get ready for US and world cross.

I agree. In fact, his ability in cross-country is one reason that I don't totally discount his ability to run a good marathon; there is a long history of top-notch 12K cross runners performing well in the marathon.

When he was younger, I didn't really think that that Adam had the classic temperament of a marathon specialist. But 25 to 30 years ago, neither did Al. As young men, they both seemed like raging bulls -- at least, by the standards of distance runners. They also both went through some debilitating stretches of depression in their late 20s. Al never really came back as a runner; his single noteworthy running accomplishment after his mid-twenties was his win in the Comrades ultra in his mid-thirties. Adam has managed to re-ignite the fire more successfully over the years, perhaps in part because, unlike Al, Adam has had reasonable expectations of someday improving on the accomplishments of his past.

I think his running career is pretty much over. The marathon is relentless and will prey upon any injury prone person. He can't make in the 5k he can't make it without injury in the marathon.

Avocados Number wrote:

When he was younger, I didn't really think that that Adam had the classic temperament of a marathon specialist. But 25 to 30 years ago, neither did Al. As young men, they both seemed like raging bulls -- at least, by the standards of distance runners. They also both went through some debilitating stretches of depression in their late 20s. Al never really came back as a runner; his single noteworthy running accomplishment after his mid-twenties was his win in the Comrades ultra in his mid-thirties.

This is one point I meant to make in my mega-post about Goucher's marathon prospects, the idea that Salazar didn't LOOK like your classic, light-footed and efficient marathoner any more than Adam does.

Of course, Salazar ran 27:25 or something before his first marathon so he had that going for him, which was nice.

ttc wrote:

I agree. I didn't know how to say it... but you put it perfectly.

Curious: In 'Running with the Buffaloes', Goucher was stated as running a 22 mile hard tempo. I think it was around 5:15-5:20 per mile, but not sure. Anyone remember??

5:20 pace for a guy who won NCAA XC and ran 7:46 for 3k is not "hard tempo pace". That would be 1:20 per mile SLOWER than his mile pace, or only about 1:00-1:05 slower than 5k pace. That is long run pace for National or World class runners. You don't have to run that fast, but even Ritz ran 5:20 pace for 17-18 mile Sat. runs IN HIGH SCHOOL.

I think the confusion over what kind of pace is hard comes from people who rarely crack 6:00-pace in training. They can't imagine running 10 milers at 5:20 pace, so therefore it must be a killer for someone to do it for 20 miles.

2:18 on his 1st attempt. If he gets hooked on marathons, I think he could get it down to 2:12, which might be enough for 2012

I used to do a 21-22 mile run in Eugene weekly averaging around 5:25 - 5:35 pace as basically a long tempo run. It was quite hilly in the middle 16, but a lot of great places to get my mile spits while on the roads and parts of the Rexius and Amazon trails. Obviously some flat and downhill miles were quite a bit faster than the uphill ones.

A couple things that I thought about in regards to what you said. While Ritz 17-18 milers are very impressive (especially for a high schooler) I found that for me (and I don't think this is uncommon it was around 1:40-1:50 or roughly 18 miles that I noticed a big physiological change. I'm sure at that point my body had run through it's energy and was starting to burn muscle. Had I been smarter I might have place some energy drinks out there around 15-16 miles. But my point just being that it was a substantial and noticeable change going the extra 4-5 miles on my body alone and probably took me much deeper down to recover from.

Secondly, Goucher was doing that stuff in Boulder, CO at roughly 5,400 ft. That is a lot different than doing it at under 1,000. When I think of trying to run 5:20s for 21-22 miles at altitude, that is impressive.

I root for Adam as much as the next guy but this is just silly he still has the talent to run the low 13's if he would stay injury free. I cant imagine him not just getting broke running the marathon. Plus he will not be good at it if he is lucky he will run some where between 2:12 and 2:16 on his best day ever. Just seem silly. Where did this idea come from that everyone HAS to move up to the next event when they get old? Sometimes it works but its not a rule crissake, use some common sense.

worst idea ever wrote:

I root for Adam as much as the next guy but this is just silly he still has the talent to run the low 13's if he would stay injury free. I cant imagine him not just getting broke running the marathon. Plus he will not be good at it if he is lucky he will run some where between 2:12 and 2:16 on his best day ever. Just seem silly. Where did this idea come from that everyone HAS to move up to the next event when they get old? Sometimes it works but its not a rule crissake, use some common sense.

So then, why do you suppose Adam hasn't run low 13s lately? Do you think he just forgot how good he was? Obviously something wasn't working, either his body wasn't responding to training as before, or the intervals were taking a toll on his body.

I mean, if he could just go back and run 13:10 again, I figure he'd prefer to do that, rather than running marathons.

Heard through the grapevine wrote:

[quote]Avocados Number wrote:

Of course, Salazar ran 27:25 or something before his first marathon so he had that going for him, which was nice.

More like 28:06 - it was the same year he made the Olympic team that went nowhere

He ran his 27:25 a week or two before the famous duel in the sun at Boston.

Very doubtful...He'll definitely run a sub-2:15. The guy's tough as nails and has years of training behind him.

has there been any more movement on this? I would assume he'd want to run a marathon before the trials, assuming his 10k qualifies him for the trials already. Due to timing, he may need to do that again

Golf cart finish.