5000m Talk: Will any Americans break 13:00 this year or next, outdoors, who's next

While I agree with the spirit of your point (and found it quite humorous), I do think Al (which shoe company does he represent?) can get Rupp into any race he wishes. I don't think they'd find it beneficial to put him into a race that would be over his head.

Will anyone in the US break 13 at 5k this year or next?

I'd give Rupp the best shot. Maybe 40% by 2010

In two years (2011) GF will do it.

You heard it here first. Or second. Or perhaps 97th.

Now that the USATF Championships are over, we can reflect on the amazing achievement of the Schumacher group. Even though Riley didn't make the team, he still finished 6th in 13:26, so that means Schuamcher's boys ran 13:20, 13:20, 13:22, & 13:26. Not bad for a championship run, but then again, Schumacher has a history for that at Wisconsin. I think Schumacher and/or Salazar could make Ritzenhein a more competitive 10,000m runner. I also think that Jager may be destined to have a great career ahead of him. He's 20, running professionally as one of the best in the U.S. right now, having PR's of 3:54 for the mile, 13:22 and a spot on the 5k team for world champs. And with a kick and the stride he has, I wouldn't be surprised if he qualifies for the second round at worlds.

I think Lagat is still big papa in the U.S. though. He'd push Symmonds but probably not beat him, he could be beat anyone 1000m - 5000m, maybe even 10,000m. Having just run 13:03, you have to wonder what he could for 10k. But i guess if Tegenkamp refrains from venturing forth on the 25-lapper, Lagat isn't even in the picture.

I would say that, nearly without exception, we've had someone capable of breaking the record every year since it was set. Doing it is something else, though. When Teg ran his PR he could have done it. Lagat has been a threat every year since he started running for the USA. Webb could have done it in 2007. Easily, I think. Ritz could have done it a couple years ago - 8:11 is equal to sub-13, especially with his endurance.

But no one has. To run that fast requires some luck. You have to be healthy, you have to be at your fittest (if you're not an East African anyway..) and you have to be in the right race at the right time.

Given all that, my magic eight ball says BK's record will be broken in the next year. Who will do it? Ask that question and the eight ball isn't so magic. I'll go with the safe bet and say it will be Lagat who breaks it. As for sub-13, I think we'll see Rupp get it next year, but he won't get Lagat's record.

I can't sleep, and not, obviously, because I don't need the rest. I take it back. 8:11, regardless of someone's endurance is not equivalent to sub-13. I was thinking that 12 seconds off the Komen's WR at 2 would mean 20 seconds of his 5k best. But, 8:11 is really only on a par with 7:35 or so, right? Not too many guys who maxed at that for 3k who broke 13.

I think it goes to show how frakkin good the top 5,000 times are.

In my opinion in order of liklehood of who will break 13 is:

1)Lagat

2)Teg

3)Solinsky

4)Rupp

Next white guy to do it would probably have to say:

1)Teg - 13:04 is close and early evidence say he is in great shape.

2)Cragg - Craggs 7:32 a few seasons ago suggest he should already have broken 13.

3)Solinsky - same as Teg looks in great shape

4)Rupp - He has the potential but being the top in NCAA does not mean you will get near 13 minutes. I cannot think of 1 NCAA distance runner who has broken 13 in the 5km??

aaaahhh the EPO years....

Here is a list of everyone who has ever broken 13:00. 63 people in all. Of those 63, 9 have tested positive for PED or are highly suspicious (Kennedy included by virtue of the era in which he broke 13:00, and the people he trained with, Lagat because of that pesky "A" sample). That widdles the list of sub 13:00 down to 52. My suspicion is that it would go closer to 40 with better testing.

Sub 13:00 doesn't happen every day for a clean athlete. Its still a very notable achievement. If the US could get 3 clean guys on there in the next few years, that would be amazing. I think it can happen between Teg, Solinsky and German. Possibly Rupp too, but time will tell.

12:37.4 Kenenisa Bekele

12:39.4 Haile Gebrselassie

12:39.7 Daniel Komen (*)

12:46.5 Eliud Kipchoge

12:47.0 Sileshi Sihine

12:48.7 Isaac Songok

12:48.8 Saif Shaheen

12:49.3 Brahim Lahlafi(*)

12:49.7 Mohammed Mourhit(*)

12:49.9 Paul Tergat

12:50.2 Hicham El Guerrouj

12:50.3 Abderrahim Goumri

12:50.6 Moses Masai

12:50.7 Moses Kipsiro

12:50.8 Salah Hissou(*)

12:50.9 Ali Saïdi-Sief(*)

12:51.0 Joseph Ebuya

12:52.0 Thomas Longosiwa

12:52.3 Sammy Kipketer

12:52.4 Edwin Soi

12:52.5 Tariku Bekele

12:52.8 Gebre-egziabher Gebremariam

12:53.0 Abraham Chebii

12:53.4 Khalid Boulami(*)

12:53.7 Augustine Choge

12:53.7 Philip Mosima

12:53.8 Assefa Mezgebu

12:54.1 John Kibowen

12:54.1 Dejene Berhanu

12:54.2 Abreham Cherkos

12:54.5 Moses Mosop

12:54.6 James C'Kurui

12:54.7 Dieter Baumann(*)

12:54.8 Moses Kiptanui

12:55.0 Benjamin Limo

12:55.5 Hicham Bellani

12:55.6 Abebe Dinkesa

12:55.6 Mark Kipkinyor

12:55.8 Craig Mottram

12:55.8 Boniface Songok

12:55.9 Tom Nyariki

12:56.3 Ahmad Abdullah

12:56.3 Paul Koech

12:56.5 Luke Kipkosgei

12:56.7 Richard Limo

12:57.0 Mulugeta Wendimu

12:57.1 Boniface Kiprop

12:57.2 Worku Bikila

12:57.8 David Chelule

12:58.2 Bob Kennedy(*)

12:58.4 Saïd Aouita

12:58.5 Yusuf Biwott

12:58.6 Hailu Mekonnen

12:58.6 Mike Kigen

12:58.6 Moukheld Al-Outaibi

12:58.8 Ismaïl Sghyr

12:58.9 Paul Bitok

12:59.1 Jonas Cheruiyot

12:59.2 Bernard Lagat (*)

12:59.3 Zersenay Tadese

12:59.4 Million Wolde

12:59.6 Ali Abdosh

12:59.8 Leonard Maina

FDJJJ wrote:

Here is a list of everyone who has ever broken 13:00. 63 people in all. Of those 63, 9 have tested positive for PED or are highly suspicious (Kennedy included by virtue of the era in which he broke 13:00, and the people he trained with, Lagat because of that pesky "A" sample). That widdles the list of sub 13:00 down to 52. My suspicion is that it would go closer to 40 with better testing.

Sub 13:00 doesn't happen every day for a clean athlete. Its still a very notable achievement. If the US could get 3 clean guys on there in the next few years, that would be amazing. I think it can happen between Teg, Solinsky and German. Possibly Rupp too, but time will tell.

Rupp would be the most likely of this group and I'd add Jager ahead of German at this point. He's only a year older and in both their 5K debus as Stanford and both of their 2nd 5Ks at USA's Jager was a level above German. Considering that German comes out of high school at a much higher level than Jager did, but Jager is competing above him now no reason (imho) to assume that German goes blowing by him, especially since Jager likely hasn't peaked yet for this season.

I think next summer you'll see a bunch of guys chasing times and the top marks will be:

3K

Lagat

Rupp

Teg

Solinsky

Lincoln?

Jager

German (if he races in Europe)

Ritz

5K

Rupp

Lagat

Teg

Solinsky

Ritz

Lincoln?

Jager

German

10K

Rupp

Ritz

Nelson

Abdi

Bauhs

The fact is the top Africans aren't breaking 13:00 right now, so it seems unlikely unless there is a 12:55 race or better that one of our guys gets under 13:00 but who knows.

twentyseven o something wrote:

Rupp would be the most likely of this group and I'd add Jager ahead of German at this point. He's only a year older and in both their 5K debus as Stanford and both of their 2nd 5Ks at USA's Jager was a level above German.

He is 20 years old. 1 year, 10 months older than German. By the time German is 20 Yager will no longer be within 100 yards of him. You know it, I know it. Acknowledge, move on.

Thorkin wrote:

twentyseven o something wrote:

Rupp would be the most likely of this group and I'd add Jager ahead of German at this point. He's only a year older and in both their 5K debus as Stanford and both of their 2nd 5Ks at USA's Jager was a level above German.

He is 20 years old. 1 year, 10 months older than German. By the time German is 20 Yager will no longer be within 100 yards of him. You know it, I know it. Acknowledge, move on.

I'm a fan of all the young "potential greats" coming up in this country at this time (certainly including German). But to say that Jager will not be within 100 yard of GF in two years strikes me as assuming too much for GF and/or too little for Jager.

Assuming that you are a serious track fan and would like to develop an understanding of what "may" happen before it actually does, I would urge you to take a close look at the video of the National Champs 5k. Don't focus on the fact that Jager beat GF by 3 seconds or even that he beat him by 3 seconds on the last lap (which is a bit more indicative of where they each are at this time).

Instead, focus on their faces during the last few laps when they are both in the lead pack. It is pretty evident that GF is straining to maintain that pace (kudos to him for doing so as an 18 year old!). It is also evident that Jager is not straining at all. He is clearly just staying where he wants to be and waiting for the real race to start. The difference is quite striking.

Right now Jager is significantly further ahead of GF than the three second final time differential might indicate. In two years who knows? But give Jager his due. He has given us as much reason as anyone (in the 17 - 20 year old group) to believe that an American might conceivably medal in the 5k sometime in the next 10 years.

There really is a great bunch of runners in the ncaa ranks right now, particularly good young runners. I am referring to Matt Centrowitz(3:36.9), Michael Coe(3:56, 7:48), Chris Derrick(13:29), Luke Puskedra, German Fernandez,(3:55, 13:25), even guys like Brandon Bethke(3:42, 13:27) and Hassan Mead (13:28) who are in positions to make some serious noise in USA running in the near future. I wouldn't be surprised if Fernandez breaks 13. I don't know if Rupp ever will. I wouldn't put it past him, but Fernandez shows natural speed and toughness. I mean, he could run a 3:55 indoors in January? I would like to see Bekele do the same. Not that Fernandez could do anything above a mile in the same ball park as Bekele, but I would like to see Fernandez train with the Schumacher group in the future. Schumacher's doing a pretty good job with Jager.

Bekeles indoor marks:

2000 Metres 4:49.99 Birmingham, GBR 17/02/2007

3000 Metres 7:30.51 Stockholm 20/02/2007

Two Miles 8:04.35 Birmingham, GBR 16/02/2008

5000 Metres 12:49.60 Birmingham, GBR 20/02/2004

That 4:49 2K makes me think that Bekele could moonwalk the last 10 meters and finish a indoor mile in 3:55.

I don't mean to slam you or German, but I think it would be good to back off just a tad on comparisons and expectations for him. That 3:55 was really his best race of his freshman year with a lot of collegiates hitting faster marks (1500) outdoors, himself not included.

He's a phenomenal freshman, but lets leave it at that until he progresses up another level or two. USA outdoors showed there is no reason to compare this guy to the best in the world when he's not even the best of the minors in the USA. If he has a little less expectation he might listen to his body better and get to where we all want him to be sooner and more often.

That's definitely true concerning Bekele's 2k indoor mark. I'd forgotten about that. I was just thinking of when Bekele ran the Boston Indoor Mile and finished somewhere around 4:01. 4:49 for 2000m means he was around 3:50 at the mile mark. That's insane. Which means El Guerrouj's 4:44 is even more insane(1 second faster per lap).

Why don't we first see if any American 5k runners make the finals first. Lets take on step at a time.

'Here is a list of everyone who has ever broken 13:00. 63 people in all. Of those 63, 9 have tested positive for PED or are highly suspicious (Kennedy included by virtue of the era in which he broke 13:00, and the people he trained with, Lagat because of that pesky "A" sample). That widdles the list of sub 13:00 down to 52. My suspicion is that it would go closer to 40 with better testing'

Everyone knows the East Africans are the best distance runners right now. How many of them have actually from that list have actually failed the test? In that time how many sprinters?! Komen failed (although rescinded) on caffeine - its not even on the illegal list now - you can take it until it comes out of your ears! The ones who have failed are largely not born at altitude and trying to bridge the gap.

Bob Kennedy did do the one thing you need to do to be a top distance runner. He trained at altitude for long periods of time- with the East Africans. Mottram did the same.

No.

So many sub-13s in 2006 because there as no World Championship. People were chasing marks, records, etc. 2010 will be similar.

Jager is better than German. 3:54 and 13:22 to 3:55 and 13:25. Beat him twice this year. This "Fernandez will beat everyone" argument is getting annoying. Just let the guy run and improve. Right now he's not our best 5K guy. Eventually he may be. Give it time.

Tegenkamp will break 13 very soon. Probably next season. He and Solinsky will break 13:10 this year though before Worlds.

Lagat might do it next year but who cares about Lagat. He's tested positive for an A sample and failed a B. What's up with that?!