Rupp will break 27 this year.

Hello People wrote:

1318 was not solo, I don't know where you came up with that. He was running against two very talented Ethiopians (Daba and Bekana) and nearly beat both. It should be mentioned that their PRs are 1304 and 1300 respectively. It should also be mentioned that Rupp was likely training through that race.

rupp was second in that race with chelanga 3rd, bekana daba is the name of the runner who beat rupp.

just a sidenote bekana daba improved his best time in the 5k to 13:02 yesterday in berlin.

Interesting, I just looked at the Golden League results from Berlin this weekend and Daba finished 5th in 13:02, less than two seconds behind Bekele. Indoors, Rupp lost to Daba by half a second or so when he ran 13:18.

coaching scientist wrote:

Sorry AbsoRUPPinglutely, the pictures speak for themselves.

BTW, these photos are everywhere. About 15 seconds and very little effort is all it takes.

Fanboys are in denial and very, very sad.

Why do you first post under the name "echoplex" and then "coaching scientist"?

Apparently you're impressed by those who are legends in their own minds. Hate to have to shatter your illusion, but they're stat hacks, the Trekkies of t&f, and not accomplished runners.

adult among children wrote wrote:

United States of Whatever wrote:

They may be stuffy on T&FN, but they're generally just as ignorant and prone to runaway homerism. Don't break your arm patting yourself on the back, stiff.

No it's like being in a room of accomplished runners (peers for some of us) and talking track and being with people who "have never been there" talking track. I think most of the knowledgeable types don't bother posting here anymore and are just coming to see if there is anything interesting and then leaving. If you don't know what I mean it won't surprise me.

Smifson wrote:

We could be looking at a Sub 27, Sub 13 this year from Rupp, although it will be difficult. His times will surprise everyone.

Rupp's not cracking 13 or 27 this year. The kid's a good runner who's got a shot at those marks eventually. Not at this time though.

Figure around 13:10 or just under and maybe a 27:25 out of him in the right race this year.

thank you great predicto's, where would track and field and the internet be without your wisdom's?

okay so rupp won't run those times this year...and if he does, the first thing you are going to do is rush to a computer to post here what a negative dick you are, right?

yer wrong wrote:

thank you great predicto's, where would track and field and the internet be without your wisdom's?

okay so rupp won't run those times this year...and if he does, the first thing you are going to do is rush to a computer to post here what a negative dick you are, right?

How does what I posted make me a "negative dick"?

I would say Rupp would be doing great if he could get to around 13:09-11 and 27:10-20 this year. That would be about what Meb ran when he was in AR shape.

If next year he can bring it down to 13:05-10 and 27:05-15, that would be great leading up to 2011.

By 2011 you hope he is running 13:02-13:07 and 27:00-27:10.

If he can get there in the next 3 years, all while getting his 1500 PB down to 3:34 or 5, he will have a shot to do some damage in 2012.

I would be shocked if he get's near 26:59 this year and he may never get it.

So much depends on how much he can improve. As a friend of mine said, he's a lab rat (I added one hugely talented lab rat), and I just don't the ceiling on someone like that.

On a separate note:

I don't understand why Ritz doesn't go and train with Rupp. Those 2 could tear it up in the 10k. Ritz ran, what, 4:05 as a Junior in HS amnd 1:51 or so as a frosh in college? He has more natural speed then Rupp, and is arguably as talented or more so aerobically.

one of the most repeated mistakes about rupp is that because he hasn't run a time, people assume he isn't capable of it.

i think this year kind of threw out the questions about his...speed, ability to break 4 in the mile, ability to run a fast 800 (1:49) etc.

the reality is... we just don't know what he is capable of.

and we won't, until his career is over, and his done it all, and there is no more to do.

I don't disagree with that. I just think we should all be stoked if he runs those times and not EXPECT faster. He may run faster, he may not. But given what he has done so far, I think my above scenarios would be a reasonable expectation and should be the minimum standard of success.

Conto wrote:

I don't understand why Ritz doesn't go and train with Rupp. Those 2 could tear it up in the 10k. Ritz ran, what, 4:05 as a Junior in HS amnd 1:51 or so as a frosh in college? He has more natural speed then Rupp, and is arguably as talented or more so aerobically.

That would be bad for one or the other. Ritz would run himself into the ground to keep up with Rupp and Rupp could become despondent if Ritz consistently beats him. Spoiled Americans are mentally soft like that, on the whole.

Ritz has been training and periodizing through these mini-peaks for quite some time now. We need to see him break 27:20 before we can start talking about 27:00. That said, he definitely elevated his game this year, and being able to close the way he has, kicking from 1200 out is nothing short of impressive. He may not be mixing it up with the Kenyans just yet, but he has definitely raised the bar. I'll call him at 27:12 and an AR just for grins...

KnowItAll wrote:

Conto wrote:

I don't understand why Ritz doesn't go and train with Rupp. Those 2 could tear it up in the 10k. Ritz ran, what, 4:05 as a Junior in HS amnd 1:51 or so as a frosh in college? He has more natural speed then Rupp, and is arguably as talented or more so aerobically.

That would be bad for one or the other. Ritz would run himself into the ground to keep up with Rupp and Rupp could become despondent if Ritz consistently beats him. Spoiled Americans are mentally soft like that, on the whole.

if you think rupp is a spoiled american, then you are reflecting your own great ignorance. if you think he'd get despondent over training, you are showing how much you lack intelligence.

those are two things you cannot say about this kid. he's worked every step of the way.

and he is one of the most naturally happy and balanced people around.

the only person who is mentally soft here, is YOU!

besides, who are you, what have you done except display your spincter opine on a website anonymously?

Conto wrote:

I would say Rupp would be doing great if he could get to around 13:09-11 and 27:10-20 this year. That would be about what Meb ran when he was in AR shape.

If next year he can bring it down to 13:05-10 and 27:05-15, that would be great leading up to 2011.

By 2011 you hope he is running 13:02-13:07 and 27:00-27:10.

If he can get there in the next 3 years, all while getting his 1500 PB down to 3:34 or 5, he will have a shot to do some damage in 2012.

I would be shocked if he get's near 26:59 this year and he may never get it.

I can see this scenario and don't think the 1500m time is all that important. He's got enough speed and strength IMHO. What he needs is experience running the paces required in the setting needed to get down to 27:00 and under 13:00.

Oops... Rupp will will run 27:12, not Ritz.

Using the average improvement ratio from three of Rupp's PRs this season (1500-5k), he's due for a 27:09 10k based on his 27:33 PB.

And this is before one takes into account the fact that his 1500, 3k, and 5k times were all run indoors (meaning he could likely improve significantly on them outdoors).

I've seen Geb run his hardest and hit 26:50's... So I'm not ready to give Rupp sub-27:00.

Hello People wrote:

Using the average improvement ratio from three of Rupp's PRs this season (1500-5k), he's due for a 27:09 10k based on his 27:33 PB.

And this is before one takes into account the fact that his 1500, 3k, and 5k times were all run indoors (meaning he could likely improve significantly on them outdoors).

well I've been observing for a while and i had to chirp in. this is not directed at you "Hello People" obviously because I think you are right on.

it really continues to amaze me that people think this kid is only good for 27:20-27:25 and 13:10-13:15! i'll give the benefit of the doubt to some of them and assume they just have never seen him run or really have no idea when and where he set his "prs".

let's think for just a second about where all the africans set the 13:00 and 27:00 range marks. outside of the pre meet here and that stacked and rabbited reebok 5k nearly every mark comes from European races and are nearly all rabbited at sub 13:00 and sub 27:00 minutes. granted in the olympics and world championships when you have 12:37 and 26:20 guys in the races they may bring them down to near 13:00 or 27:00. outside of a very small handfull of guys, all the other 13:00 & 27:00 marks are set under ideal conditions and ideal circumstances.

having said that, when was the last time galen rupp was in one of those races? i don't know off the top of my head but I'm pretty sure he hasn't hit europe in over 3 years. the next closest thing was a midseason 10K race at cardinal invite over 2 years ago and an indoor 5K this year and surprise, those are where his pr's are from. the plain and simple fact is he hasn't gone for a timed effort at either distance outside of those 2 races. you can't look at those pr marks and try to compare apples to apples where he matches up with africans who hit the european circuit year after year.

as someone mentioned, rupp was narrowly beat by Daba at the Tyson invite indoors in a race that started out around 13:25 pace at the 1K and gradually got faster and faster each 1K and ended:

1 DABA

Bekana adidas Lane: 10 13:17.89

2 RUPP

Galen Oregon Lane: 11 13:18.12

3 CHELANGA

Sam Liberty Lane: 8 13:19.79

4 GENETI

Markos adidas Lane: 12 13:31.71

5 FORREST

Shawn Arkansas Lane: 7 13:37.77

for those of us who watched that race, rupp looked absolutely within himself the whole way, he was actually short stepping at times as if his body wanted to go faster. those who saw it I'm sure remember. daba looked frightened.

and what has daba done since then?

ever heard of a little race called carlsbad?

10 Daba Bekana Ethiopia M 13:19 13:19 1 1 1 4:17 20 19 20

3 Abreham Cherkos Ethiopia M 13:19 13:19 2 2 2 4:18 20 19 20

1 Maregu Zewdie Ethiopia M 13:24 13:24 3 3 3 4:19 20 19 20

6 Ali Abdosh Ethiopia M 13:25 13:25 4 4 4 4:20 20 19 20

5 Collis Birmingham Australia M 13:27 13:27 5 5 5 4:20 20 19 20

2 Anthony Famiglietti M 13:28 13:28 6 6 6 4:21 20 19 20

8 Ibrahim Jeilen Ethiopia M 13:36 13:36 7 7 7 4:23 20 19 20

7 Alistair Cragg Ireland M 13:36 13:36 8 8 8 4:23 20 19 20

12 Haron Lagat Kenya M 13:38 13:38 9 9 9 4:24 20 19 20

15 Scott Bauhs United States M 13:56 13:56 10 10 10 4:29 20 19 20

16 Stephen Pifer United States M 13:58 13:58 11 11 11

ever heard of a little meet in berlin called the golden league? fyi 1st and 3rd below were gold and bronze at the olympic 10K in beijing.

Official Results - Men - 5000 Metres Pos Athlete Nat Mark Pts

1 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13:00.76 20

2 Abraham Chebii KEN 13:01.08 16

3 Micah Kogo KEN 13:01.30 14

4 Vincent Kiprop Chepkok KEN 13:01.35 12

5 Bekana Daba ETH 13:02.32 10

6 Thomas Pkemei Longosiwa KEN 13:03.43 8

7 Mark Kosgey Kiptoo KEN 13:03.70 6

8 Lucas Kimeli Rotich KEN 13:08.64 4

9 Edwin Cheruiyot Soi KEN 13:09.31 3

10 Silas Kipruto KEN 13:09.64 3

11 Jacob Korir Cheshari KEN 13:09.91 3

12 Jonas Cheruiyot KEN 13:14.61 3

13 Joseph Ebuya KEN 13:21.28

14 Mourad Marofit MAR 13:22.87

rupp has only gotten better since indoors and while due to his ncaa and oregon obligations this spring he probably won’t be hitting Europe, he is at the level. on a very conservative scale a 27:36 in beijing last year indicated he was already under 27:20 as a runner. he beat abdi by 15 seconds. abdi ran 27:16 in the morning at PRE and largely alone. Kidane Tadasse was less than a second ahead of Rupp and he ran 27:06 in may last year. Mahboob Hasan was 19 seconds behind rupp and his pr's are 7:44.99 (slower than Rupps indoor mark when rupp ran sick) 13:18.98 (slower than Rupps indoor mark) and 27:24. Rupp has faster indoor marks than this guy (who hit his marks in europe) and rupp kicked his ass at the olympics. and he is 27:24 guy. in fact you have to go back 12 places from rupp and over 35 seconds behind him until you can find a guy that doesn't have a pr faster than Rupp in either the 5K or 10K or both. to put it plainly rupp was beating a lot of guys that have better pr's in either the 3K, 5K, 10K and even all 3 than rupp. A lot of them substantially faster. take a look:

i would encourage any of you who use a vague notion that "the east africans" are all faster and that because you happened to dig up rupps old prs and assume that it’s too much time to knock off in one blow to reconsider. the fact is rupp was a sub 27:20 guy last summer and probably a 13:10-13:15 guy last summer. he is clearly (to those in tune with the sport) at different level now. that was first apparent when he went 24 laps in the 30-40 workout under pace and was told to stop (besting PRE's best mark by a mile and salazars by two miles). then he opened the xc season with a romp at pac-10's by beating 13:30 runners by nearly 60 seconds again at the western regional. where it really got interesting is when he decided to start working on speed and went 1:49 indoors. bye the time indoors ncaa's rolled around he was untouchable. untouchable in the 5K to a 13:19 guy. untouchable shortly after to 2 3:56 milers in the DMR mile. untouchable the next day to a 7:48 guy in the 3K despite completing a triple.

the point is there are guys in the ncaa who have run 3:37, 7:48, 13:19 & 27:28 and they couldn't even touch rupp as he doubles and triples. not even remotely. where is the logic that follows that rupp is at his best a 27:20 or 13:15 runner? rupp is right now a 27:0X and 13:0X runner and though he may not hit europe this summer he'll run like one at worlds. get on board and enjoy the ride. sorry for the long post, but hopefully you guys can get as excited as many of us are to see this happen. I don’t think anyone in their right mind thinks rupp is going to beat down that top tier right now, but if he can crack that next tier he’ll be doing something that only Kennedy and Lagat did regularly and Teg when he was at his best.

nice long post. all of what we are saying is that he's not going to have much of an impact on world stage. He'll improve but how much we are talking here. I say he goes 27:14 for 10k and 13:07 for 5k. That should be good for him. I DONT see him going sub 27 let alone sub 13. Do any of you guys now how fast that is. It seems like most of you guys are underestimating these barriers and just think rupp closes really fast at 28min paces and 14min paces means that its a lock for him to go sub 27 and sub 13. I'm afraid not. There is a reason why arturo barrios 10k record have yet to be broken by a non african. Its hard as hell. But all in all, I would be really happy for him to prove me wrong. -Peace-