The 5k prelim may not take much out of Rupp but a tactical 1500 prelim where he will have to kick certainly can't be good against a guy who has broken 27:30 and will be running his first and only race of the championships. I say Rupp doesn't win any.
1500 - Centro
5000 - Mead
10000 - Chelanga
You never hear of a Kenyan or Ethiopian doubling or trebling. Nobody at his college will give a toss about him when he leaves. Admirable though it may be, he should run for himself and concentrate on one event at a time.
Disagree if you like, but you will be the very people slagging him off if he burns out like Webb, or more likely gets injured
rupp could even just run for second in the 10k, and as long as he gets 7th or better in the 15, that's still more points for the team.
ukathleticscoach wrote:
You never hear of a Kenyan or Ethiopian doubling or trebling. Nobody at his college will give a toss about him when he leaves. Admirable though it may be, he should run for himself and concentrate on one event at a time.
Disagree if you like, but you will be the very people slagging him off if he burns out like Webb, or more likely gets injured
It seems to me you have it just about exactly backward. If Rupp pulls off 22 or 25 points at NCAAs it will be talked about literally for decades to come among Oregon track fans, just as some of the legendary performances by Cruz, Salazar, Chapa, McChesney, Centrowitz (senior), and Pre are mentioned again and again even now. Rupp has already earned himself legendary status as a Duck but if he pulled off a high-scoring triple at NCAAs to lead Oregon to the outdoor team championship, finishing the team triple crown after XC and indoors, he would be doing something something many people around here would consider very noteworthy.
Kenyans and Ethiopians don't double or triple in track meets because they're usually not participating in team-scored events.
haha, YO wrote:
The 5k prelim may not take much out of Rupp but a tactical 1500 prelim where he will have to kick certainly can't be good against a guy who has broken 27:30 and will be running his first and only race of the championships. I say Rupp doesn't win any.
1500 - Centro
5000 - Mead
10000 - Chelanga
Wow, it is hard to believe that anyone could think that Rupp won't win the 5k. Bold predictions, sir.
I'd say:
1500 - Rupp will get 4th or better
5000 - Rupp will win by basically jogging (for him)
10000 - Rupp will win though Chelanga will keep it close
Too many races at NCAAs are tactical for Rupp to really get tired out. The only way for these races to tire out Rupp and make him falter (a little) is if Chelanga, Fernandez, Mead and maybe a few others conspired to make each race all out from the start.
Of course this won't happen. And even if it did Rupp would still win the 5k, no worse than 2nd in the 10k and probably place top 6 in the 1500. No, I just don't think there is any slowing him down this year.
Billy the Kid wrote:
Too many races at NCAAs are tactical for Rupp to really get tired out. The only way for these races to tire out Rupp and make him falter (a little) is if Chelanga, Fernandez, Mead and maybe a few others conspired to make each race all out from the start.
If I'm Chelanga, I know (a) I can't outkick Rupp, (b) I have one race and he has a full plate, (c) my PR is better than Rupp's PR, (d) I'm gonna do everything I can to make him regret his multiple events. Chelanga has guts. Rupp might win the 10K regardless, but if Chelanga runs smart (i.e pushes the pace for the conditions), Rupp's 5 and 15 will suffer.
Right, if Chelanga is wise, he'll do what he did at XC Pre-nats and go crazy from the start, and maybe convince Rupp to run easy for 2nd.
I agree that Chelanga could tire Rupp out. I personally believe that Rupp win's the 10k no matter the tactics used. He'll have an even easier time in the 5k since Chelanga won't be in that race and he's so much better than anyone else in the field. So I say 20 points right there with about a 90% certainty. As for the 1,500? Well, anything can happen, but Rupp has shown what he can do for the mile when tired at indoor nationals. I believe he'll be top 4 in the 1,500 even when tired. I always go back to indoor nationals... even when tired he threw down basically a pr in the mile to finish it off. He just recovers quickly and can race well when tired.
But it's all predictions. I just want to watch the races and see what happens!
what- no steeple? what a chump.
We all need to remember, he hasn't said he WILL triple, just that he and his coaches are considering it.
I dont know much wrote:
I agree that Chelanga could tire Rupp out. I personally believe that Rupp win's the 10k no matter the tactics used. He'll have an even easier time in the 5k since Chelanga won't be in that race and he's so much better than anyone else in the field. So I say 20 points right there with about a 90% certainty. As for the 1,500? Well, anything can happen, but Rupp has shown what he can do for the mile when tired at indoor nationals. I believe he'll be top 4 in the 1,500 even when tired. I always go back to indoor nationals... even when tired he threw down basically a pr in the mile to finish it off. He just recovers quickly and can race well when tired.
But it's all predictions. I just want to watch the races and see what happens!
He may be the class of the field but you CANNOT forget he will have already raced 18000 meters. Mead isn't a slouch, he proved that at Stanford. There are plenty of other guys out there who will be ready and willing to take it to Rupp.
What's the gap between Rupp's 5K PR and the rest of the field? Anyone know?
how would you coach a triple like that? I'm coming from a workout perspective--the 1500 and 10k are so different, how do you set up workouts that will allow him to compete at the top of each race?
sampson wrote:
how would you coach a triple like that? I'm coming from a workout perspective--the 1500 and 10k are so different, how do you set up workouts that will allow him to compete at the top of each race?
Precisely the way that Alberto and Vin have been working him out.
In my opinion up through the 10K final he'll be fine. He can easily run the 5K prelim, come back in the 1500 prelim and then do his 10K. If he wants to win the 10K he will. Unless Chelanga is ready for another 15 second pr in the 10K, and he can do it leading with Rupp stalking him (there is 0% chance of this) than he is not dropping Rupp.
Why are people comparing Chelangas recent rabbited PR with Rupps mark from 2 years ago? Absolutely apples and oranges. You want to compare the two? Compare their race history, compare their speed, compare their strength and most importanly consider their ability to deliver on the big day. In all accounts, by far, it's Rupp.
If Chelanga does want to go suicidal at lets say 13:45 for this first half, Rupp could let him go and real him in over the second half. Sam will cave from the fact that he knows Rupp is better and that he is clearly capably of realing him in as Sam dies to 14:00 or slower. Or, Rupp can jog it and kick for 2nd. This might be the most likely scenario, since his last 2 races will be the toughest.
After finishing the 10K Rupp will likely feel about how he does after any of his 5K-10K workouts, or one of his races where he follows it directly with a lengthy workout in the middle of a full mileage week.
He'll have something in his legs no doubt, but you can't really analyze his recovery like you would others. The man has been getting so calloused to intensity and mileage over the past 5 years he is just a different animal. He mentioned that indoor NCAA's was the first time that he ever really tapered for a race and it felt great (wonder why?). I expect he'll taper a bit for NCAA's so that would aid to his recovery.
5K. He's unbeatable here unless the race can go at 13:30 effort and someone can close under 1:25 on the last 600. Meade could perhaps, maybe a few others. My gut tells me Rupp delivers here where others don't, and his biggest competition may be his own teammate Kiptoo Biwott.
1500. If he is able to go over 28:00 and near or over 13:30 I think Rupp has enough to score top 5 no matter how it goes. If it's fast he'll be in it all the way. If it's slow he'll be able to outkick more than half of the field (and that's assuming his legs feel like rubber by this point).
Rupps PRs mean nothing right now. He can run 3:37, 13:07 nd 27:10 if he actually goes into a single day meet with decent conditions, one event to run and strong competition.
There is nobody else near that in the NCAA, so if he attempts the triple he comes down to the level a bit in 5K and 10K and probably takes himself out of contention for a shot at 1st in the 1500.
Two ways he can run it.
10K, 5K both for blood and victory and then 1500 for whatever points he can come up with, counting on say 3 points.
OR
10K, give up 1st if Sam goes hard and claim a conservative 2nd. 5K, run in the back and don't touch the lead until the last 800 or less and go for the win, with a chance that someone like Meade sneaks it away and you get second most likely off of a slow pace. 1500 with mileage under the legs but not the long hard efforts, go in trying to win it or at least get top 3.
Personally i think option one is better.
ukathleticscoach wrote:
Nobody at his college will give a toss about him when he leaves. Admirable though it may be, he should run for himself and concentrate on one event at a time.
I'm sure some of his teammates will 'give a toss' if he puts it on the line and those extra few points bring home a third team title on the school year.
Nice post unbelievable I think you summed it up. Oregon heat you made some good points but who cares that Chelanga's 10k pr is faster than Rupp's. Do you really not thing Rupp could run faster right now?
haha, YO wrote:
The 5k prelim may not take much out of Rupp but a tactical 1500 prelim where he will have to kick certainly can't be good against a guy who has broken 27:30 and will be running his first and only race of the championships. I say Rupp doesn't win any.
1500 - Centro
5000 - Mead
10000 - Chelanga
Stupid post. I'm willing to put whatever amount of money at 5:1 odds that Rupp wins at least one of the events. I'm serious, back up your nonsense. Email me at
hayward101@yahoo.comand it's game on....
Heard through the grapevine wrote:
Right, if Chelanga is wise, he'll do what he did at XC Pre-nats and go crazy from the start, and maybe convince Rupp to run easy for 2nd.
It is all speculation at this point, but if he were to run at least the 5k/10k and not win both of those, that would be a huge choke (even if it was brought on by being tired from the 1500 rounds).
You have to remember that nearly all the all-time greats have won the 5k/10k double and some have won it several times. Rupp has (so far) won ZERO outdoor NCAA titles.
It was just a few months ago that he was considered to be a big choker and a "show pony" who couldn't get it done when it mattered. I always felt he didn't derserve that rep, but let's face it he had it!
Getting 1st, 1st and say ... 5th would be awesome and would be one of the best performances all-time in a single meet ... but 2nd, 1st and 5th would be perceived as LAME and a waste of the excellent ability he has been showing for 12 months.
I don't agree with your interpretation that it would be LAME for Rupp to finish 1st and 2nd. Anyone who has raced understands that somedays you just don't have it...for whatever unexplainable reason. If Rupp has one of those days, he will not win an NCAA finals race, simple as that. So, I would not at all belittle a 1st, 2nd and say 5th...that would be tremendous accomplishments in my opinion. What is he more likely to finish? Probably one 1st in the 5K, and around 4th in the 1500 (let's not forget that even though he can now run a 3:55 mile, he is not primarily a miler like Centro). Oregon will not need his 10K points, so he probably can sit back and enjoy the team celebration by the time that race is run.
Pac-10 wrote:
Oregon heat you made some good points but who cares that Chelanga's 10k pr is faster than Rupp's. Do you really not thing Rupp could run faster right now?
Oh I definitely think Rupp beats Chelanga if Rupp was only running the 10K, or even just the 5/10 double, but if Rupp really plans to triple that's a lot of racing in potentially nasty conditions. I'm just saying if this really is all about doing what's best for the team, then maybe holding something back in the 10K is the way to go. And if it ends up being a tactical 10K, then by all means go for the win, but I expect Chelanga will make Rupp work more than he would like for a win in the 10K.