What will be Rupp's career 10k pr?

Read before you post. I already addressed it. I used a much more talented runner in Bernard Lagat to refute the idea that Charles' times are a good indication of Rupp's potential success. You are having too much of a problem with me simply because I have a different opinion. Instead of trying to tear my thought down, state yours and STFU...Unless , of course, you enjoy this kind of tripe, to which I have to say "get a life buddy"! Your reasoning skills are firghtfully poor. Besides, last time I looked, Rupp was nowhere near 13:02 for 5K. so, its all conjecture on your part which hardly supports your position.

please wake up and then post wrote:

Brad Nowell wrote:

Charles Kamathi

7:41.89

13:02.51

26:51.49

Those We know Rupp is good for that 3000m mark and I can see him bettering that time for 5000m, so maybe sub27 isn't so unrealistic after all.

Now you've just blown blind eyes speed theory to bits. You sure you wanted to do that?

My "speed theory" which is you, once again, redefining my posts, is probably stated poorly. Let me be more clear and give you something else to bitch about. IMO, I dont think he has the talent. Is that better?? Notice I didn't say he wasn't talented. I just dont live in your fantasy world where everything is possible if we just believe.

29:43 New US Masters Record

ccccccccccc wrote:

Rupp trained already like a pro(and had even a better equipment/support than most pros) when he was in HS, it's unlikely that he now drops 40s from his 10k PR unless he is getting into heavy doping.

Meb gradually increased his workload, started to do altitude training and so on, so he had much more room for improvement than Rupp.

I say 27:21

Thank You!!! I agree wholeheartedly. SHHH!!!...Dont tell "wake up and then post" or you'll ruin the fairytale wonderland.

hello people wrote:

Comparing PRs from a year ago to today.

mile: 3:57.5i/4:01 = .983

3000: 7:44i/7:49 = .989

5000: 13:18i/13:30 = .985

Average improvement = .985

Multiply by 27:33 and you get 27:09.

And keep in mind this is comparing indoor times to outdoor times since he ran all his new PRs this Winter, meaning outdoors his improvement will likely be even better.

Interesting. I hadn't considered it that way. We shall see.

The comparison to Lagat is completely disingenuous. Lagat, while a talented runner, is clearly a 1500 specialist, whereas Rupp is not. Why don't we compare Rupp to Nick Symmonds, or Kipketer or Coe? Because it doesn't make any sense. Before this year, Rupp had terrible speed compared to his longer distance ability. There isn't a whole lot of reason to believe he has now converted his running abilities to be similar to a mid-distance runner. Rupp will probably continue to track (relative to his level of talent) 5k-10k type guys, because that is the type of runner he is. So pointing out that it is in fact possible to break 27 without breaking 13 is relevant, because it depends on Rupp's particular talent: endurance. Even better, he will hopefully have a little more speed during the last 800 of his race, as shown by his 1:55 close at indoor NCAAs.

The guy has only raced one all-out 5k this year, and that was actually run with a fair amount of uneven, tactical pacing, in addition to being indoors. I think it's reasonable for Rupp to improve from 13:18 to around 13:12 if he races an all-out outdoor 5k this year. Given that he'll be somewhere from 13:12-13:18, I think 27:20 is a sure thing this year.

I think that Rupp's lifetime pr will be very much a function of how long he can continue to improve. I know this sounds like really just stating the obvious, but let me elaborate first.

I worry (maybe not the right word, because I don't care that much) that Rupp is burning it to hot and too often without any rest to keep improving over long periods of time. He has experienced some great short term goals, and has at least temporarily proved me wrong on one point (I thought that running endless mile and 1500 races was pointless for him). However, I think it will be interesting to see how he holds up this year, and in the next couple of years. How do you go from a great outdoor season, to training all summer through the Olympics towards a great summer Olympic performance, the perform like he did in cross country and keep going through this fantastic indoor campaign. Presumably he isn't going to take it light this spring, and then he's got the summer with world champs, people are talking about an AR attempt in Europe...etc.

Everyone, no matter how talented, has a breaking point physically. Even the great African athletes don't run at that high of a level for that long of a time continuously. So, my current theory is that he does not improve much past this year or the next, if I am right, I say he peaks at 27:05-27:15. If I am wrong (and it has happened in the past) then I would venture to guess that he can run between 26:45 and 27:00.

So, I've given a 30 second window, not much of a prediction I know. I am leaning towards my first prediction, so I will go with 27:08.63

edumacator wrote:

The comparison to Lagat is completely disingenuous. Lagat, while a talented runner, is clearly a 1500 specialist, whereas Rupp is not. Why don\'t we compare Rupp to Nick Symmonds, or Kipketer or Coe? Because it doesn\'t make any sense.

Exactly. If you really wanna go off the hook with comparisons, try this:

Micah Kogo,

3000: 7.38.67

5000: 13.00.77

10000: 26:35.63

Obviously it's not a fair comparison; Kogo is simply a beast at 10k.

But I think it's fair to say that right now, Rupp's ideal distance is 10k, and that if he can break 13:10 in his career then he should be able to give sub 27 a legitimate shot. I also find it hard to believe that some people are arguing that at 22 he's near the end of his prime. Let's ignore the fact that, as a previous poster mentioned, his 27:33 for the win was probably worth close to 27:20-25 in ideal pacing--you still have to contend with his consistently dropping times across the board in the last 18 months. He's showing no signs of hitting a plateau, and as long as he can continue to execute his training without significant injury issues he should have a window of at least another Olympic cycle to go after a sub-27.

edumacator wrote:

The comparison to Lagat is completely disingenuous.

I know it was. I was being absurd to show the absurdity of the comparisons to draw conclusions about Rupp. Satire so to speak.

At least you are being well reasoned. I give you points for that. I'll say again...I hope Rupp proves me wrong because I like to pull for the home team. I guess I want more proof that his current reductions in time are the beginning of his improvements and not the upper end of his ability. Time will tell.

Have a great day.

ccccccccccc wrote:

Rupp trained already like a pro(and had even a better equipment/support than most pros) when he was in HS, it's unlikely that he now drops 40s from his 10k PR unless he is getting into heavy doping.

Meb gradually increased his workload, started to do altitude training and so on, so he had much more room for improvement than Rupp.

I say 27:21

Meb came out of high school as a very good runner and ran at UCLA under a very sophisticated coach and program (the same coach he uses to date).

Yet Meb's PR as a senior was 28:15 and Rupp's as a junior was 27:33. So Meb can improve over a minute in a few years and Rupp will not likely improve a half a minute in his career? Following your logic, wouldn't Meb be a more likely doper?

The doping nonsense aside consider this:

If you do your homework on this you'll see that there are a couple sub 26:40 guys not too far in front of Galen:

You'll also notice that Rupp substantially outdistance a lot of guys who have run 27:20 and up.

What's scary here is that Rupp (going by his words, his coaches, and his 30-40 workout) seemed to really make a jump after his downtime after the olympics. His cross dominance seemed to mirror those indication and his indoor season put the stamp on it.

Rupp has not once run in a European 10K in the last 5 years. He hasn't even run in a "time trialed" one in over 2 years. Thinking that he is a 27:1X racer at his best in a european race (like the ones where tergat, geb, BK, Bekele, Teg, Lagat and every other fast cat with huge pr's set them) is not really knowing.

If you saw the Tyson 5K he was shortstepping at 13:20-13:25 pace, chomping at the bit to get moving. He made Daba nervous and Daba is a 5K specialist and likely a sub 13 guy very soon.

hello people wrote:

Comparing PRs from a year ago to today.

mile: 3:57.5i/4:01 = .983

3000: 7:44i/7:49 = .989

5000: 13:18i/13:30 = .985

Average improvement = .985

Multiply by 27:33 and you get 27:09.

And keep in mind this is comparing indoor times to outdoor times since he ran all his new PRs this Winter, meaning outdoors his improvement will likely be even better.

For this you get an A. I would love to see Rupp break 27:00, but wasn't convinced. But if he merely improves by the same amount he has in other distances (let alone the fact that 10k is his speciality) he'll likely be under 27:10 this year? Sub-27 seems very manageable.

As for Rupp racing too much: he took a big break after the Olympics. Many D1 athletes stay in form from cross through track. He started a bit late and will run into the summer. Then he'll probably rest. I don't see that as being too much. I say sub 27:00 in summer 2010.

If Rupp gets into the right race where he can essentially time trial, I think there is a very good chance he will run under 27:00 and probably 26:50ish. As previously pointed out, it might be in a meet where that great time is a 5th or 6th place finish. Now, what may prove to be the cool part of that is suddenly, we will have guys running 27:20-27:00 more consistently and gunning for sub 27. It takes one breakthrough to shift the paradigm.

12:58.31 and 26:56.88 for sure.

I could see this conversation happening on the eve of the Van Damme between Alberto Salazar and meet directer Wilfred Meert.

Salazar(walking into Meert's office): Hi, I would like you to include my athlete in the 10,000 meter and, perhaps provide him with a pace setter to help him to a 27:00ish time.

Meert: Well, you realize we usually provide rabbits for the guys that are ready to run 27:40 pace. What is this athlete's PR.

Salazar: 27:33.

Meert: Um, that would put him as one of the slowest guys we've accepted into the meet in a while. Perhaps you should...

Salazar: But wait. He ran that PR two years ago.

Meert: So what is his new PR?

Salazar: Well, its still 27:33. But he's ready for a breakthrough. He has improved dramatically in other distances.

Meert: Like?

Salazar: His most notable has been a 13:18 indoor 5000.

Meert: 13:18? That would most defininately be the slowest PR of anybody in the field.

Salazar: But you don't understand. The 5000 is not his best event.

Meert: I sure hope its not his best event. Listen, I'm a busy man. Maybe there's a nice permit meet that might suit him.

Salazar(as he's being ushered out by security): But you don't understand. He won four NCAA titles! He showed a lot of guts! Hundereds of Letsrunners agree he is in low 27 pace!

Dear TheTrinity:

You sure are a funny person.

Sincerely,

OP

To go sub 27 he would need to be able to go sub 13 in the 5k, or at least have the ability to do so if he focused on it. That said, do all the people who think he can go sub 27 think he can also reset the AR for 5k?

I think Rupp has the ability to come close to it, though we have seen alot of other talented runners try and fail.

26:59.99

lohalloran wrote:

To go sub 27 he would need to be able to go sub 13 in the 5k, or at least have the ability to do so if he focused on it. That said, do all the people who think he can go sub 27 think he can also reset the AR for 5k?

I think Rupp has the ability to come close to it, though we have seen alot of other talented runners try and fail.

How can you say this in the face of "please wake up and then post's" dungheap of a mountain of evidence? Foolishness I tell you!

Now can we all get back to playing CandyLand?

Then Salazar gets desperate:

"Don't you know who I am!", followed by "I work for Nike, and I always get what I want", and finally from a distance "I'll sue I tell you..."

Meert: Did he say he had the company checkbook?

Somewhere between 27:15 and 27:20. By this time though several younger runners will have eclipsed Rupps efforts and the focus will be off Rupp.