Three guys at 4:08 for the full mile at NIN, can anyone go sub 4?

MD specialist wrote:

As a pro runner that has run sub 4 minutes, I would like to point out something.

It is easier for a 4:50 miler to run sub 4:15 than it is for a 4:08 to run sub 4. This is a fact.

also, we have seen the equivalent because Webb went from 3:59 indoors to 3:53 outdoors...is that the equivalent of going from 4:50 to 4:15? it's a huge improvement but maybe more like to 4:30

on the runs wrote:

Mac Fleet is the guy to watch for. He ran 4:09 to win Reebok and 4:08 (bumped around) for 3rd at Nike without any other races or sharpening work, while the other two guys have had serious racing seasons. This is a guy who can run 48 in the quarter, runs 60-70mi/wk and won the CA State XC title.

How do you know did no sharpening? His 48 400 was a relay split. He usually runs more than 70 week. He won state in the D3 division.

One questions is, do we need to take into account that some of these guys (Springer, Andrews, etc.) have already had numerous races over the past few months? Will they be sharp at the end of the season or will they simply plateau like a lot of east coast guys do?

I'd hope that their coaches are smart enough to bring them back outdoors and improve. Some guys, like Danny Neff and Drew Shields, have barely raced due to a lack of an indoor season in their state. Will this serve them better for end of the year success?

No offense to Steve Magness, who I really like, used to talk to on the Dyestat boards, and have the utmost respect for- but lets be honest- If Steve can teeter on the verge of 4 minutes, CERTAINLY Robby Andrews, a guy with clearly superior speed and talent, can match his accomplishments.

That being said, I would much rather Robbie run a 3:50 mile in 3 years and win an Olympic medal in 2016 than worry about 4 minutes in HS.

i think all the guys have the ability to run a 48.xx second 400

Have any of those top 3 (or other guys like andrews) decided on colleges for next year?

Pat will be going to Kentucky

Lets see here...

Mac just ran 4:04.5 in a DMR split at Mt. SAC in which he took over the pacing and won handily. It's safe to assume that he can run at LEAST 4:05 if he gets pulled by faster runners. Sub-4 for him may be a stretch, but a 4:04.5 this early in the 1600 says to me that he can do big things later on in the season.

Then throw Patrick McGregor, Elias Gedyon, Andrew Springer, Robby Andrews, Elijah Greer, and even Tyler Brady (who split 4:07.3 in the Mt. SAC DMR) into the mix and we have 7 people who can run around 4:05 or under by the end of the season; maybe even more.

The talent pool this year is extremely deep. If we don't have a sub-4 miler this year, we will in the next two. We have extremely talented sophomores and freshmen on the rise: Craig Lutz, Joe and Jim Rosa, Gedyon, and Zach Wills, just to name a few.

My guess is that Fleet, McGregor, Gedyon, Springer, and Andrews will all go sub-4:07. Fleet will go 4:03 or better if he find the right race, and Andrews will go 4:04. Both Fleet and Andrews have the best shots at a sub-4 mile, and at least one will come close if not go sub-4 if they run at the Prefontaine Classic.

Andrew Springer: undecided

Mac Fleet: Oregon

Patrick McGregor: Kentucky

Others:

-------

Robby Andrews: UVA

Brett Johnson: UVA

Trevor Dunbar: Portland

Reed Connor: Wisconsin

Elijah Greer: Oregon

Tyler Stutzman: Stanford

I hope this helps.

Let me see if I understand this...three guys in Nine Inch Nails can run the mile in 4:08?

That's gotta be a record for a top music group, breaking the old mark of two by Insane Clown Posse

MD specialist

"As a pro runner that has run sub 4 minutes, I would like to point out something.

It is easier for a 4:50 miler to run sub 4:15 than it is for a 4:08 to run sub 4. This is a fact."

I agree completely, it is not that it doesn't happen but i have seen literally dozens of guys who were under 4 10 and still never break 4. One of the reasons i gave up track actually i thought there was nothing sadder than reading a newspaper story about a "journeyman" miler hoping to crack the 4 minute barrier in the summer all comers meets. More than 10 years out of high school and this guy was stuck on 402.

Why do you think so few HS runners break 4?

it is a unique talent and harder than hell

Wait, Journey has a miler too? Can he keep up with the guys from Nine Inch Nails?

Probably 1/100 4:50 milers ever run 4:15. But probably more than 1/10 4:08 milers crack 4. Just think about how rare it is to get a 4:20 miler. In high school, there are usually only about 200 sub-4:20 milers on the dyestat lists, out of hundreds of thousands at the very least trying.

Springer and Fleet have 4:03 + and 4:04+ relay legs, so there's a ray of hope.

jonesy. wrote:

Probably 1/100 4:50 milers ever run 4:15. But probably more than 1/10 4:08 milers crack 4. Just think about how rare it is to get a 4:20 miler. In high school, there are usually only about 200 sub-4:20 milers on the dyestat lists, out of hundreds of thousands at the very least trying.

Almost 50% of high school sub 4:08 milers go on to break 4:00 or the equivalent 3:42.22 for 1500m.