Which country would win if the DMR was an Olympic event?

I love it when Americans think their international nobodies can take on the world and win. Webb's one fast race counts because it's times that count, and Lagat's championship credentials count because it's a race, after all. Never mind that Webb is completely unpredictable and Lagat, as great as he is, hasn't run faster than 3:32 the last couple of years. Kenya is far more likely to send two sure things at 1200 and the mile, not to mention 800.

Number three IMP wrote:

You musn't know much about American football.

You mean you disagree with my statement that, "n American football, a team with a great quarterback or running back can beat a team with a superior group of offensive linemen"?

There are actually good reasons that top draft picks tend to be quarterbacks and running backs, and good reasons that fans care more about the status of a top quarterback or running back than they do about the status of a top offensive lineman. And if there were a college draft for professional DMR teams, top milers would receive much more attention (and money) than top quarter-milers would.

Kenya on form is pretty much unbeatable. You have Kiprop on the anchor, and he is 3:45 capable with a solid kick as well. Keitany can hang with the best as he's run 2:16/3:33.9 already indoors. Rudisha/Bungei can give them a 1:43. Their 400 will be weak.

Of course the USA circa 2007 was very strong. Webb sans rounds, nerves etc. is a beast on that 1200. Lagat 3:50 capable with a good kick. Wariner can run 43 low and Symmonds/Robinson gives you a 1:44-1:46.

non yank wrote:

It shouldn't be an olympic event, because like any other relay that doesn't have legs of equal distance it heavily favours teams with strong endurance runners. The best 400m runner in the world is only going to beat the 10th best by about a second, if that. The best mile runner in the world could gain a lot more than that on their leg, meaning that the longer legs count for more, therefore it's not really fair.

I agree. There are already far too many opportunities for distance runners to win multiple medals. Any athlete good enough to win 8, 15, 5 or 10k is practically guaranteed to win another and very often a win in the steeplechase too. But who ever heard of an athlete winning 100, 200, and 4x100, or long jump, or hurdles?

But seriously, I don't understand the implication of the closeness of the 400. Firstly a component of the race can needed be a decider in and of itself. Secondly, can't the DMR be decided by less than 1 second? Then mightn't the 400 be a decider after all?

Jackulator wrote:

I agree. There are already far too many opportunities for distance runners to win multiple medals. Any athlete good enough to win 8, 15, 5 or 10k is practically guaranteed to win another and very often a win in the steeplechase too. But who ever heard of an athlete winning 100, 200, and 4x100, or long jump, or hurdles?

What world do you live in where guys who win one distance event in the Olympics are "practically guaranteed" to win more than one RACE? From what I recall, only one guy won two distance MEDALS in the last Olympics, and he happens to be the best distance runner in the world. Very often a steeplechase? When in recent memory has anybody ever doubled in the steeple and another distance event and medaled in both, let alone won? The only guy I can think of from the top of my head is Kip Keino in 1972, that's not exactly "very often."

It is much more common for athletes to double in the sprints, not even comparable really. 7 guys won multiple medals in the sprints in the last Olympics, compared to the previously mentioned 1 in the distance events. But whatever, if you want to make things up that is fine too...

I live in a world in which sarcasm is possible!

There is 4x1 and 4x4, so a DMR would be a good idea. There used to be a cross country team race (relay I suppose) in the early days were the Finns were the Kenyans!

TRG, I really like this question (my sig tells why):

Most years, USA would lose about 0.5sec/40 to Kenya on 800-1500 legs, but would gain back a second or more in the 400.

What would make this interesting is that every once in a while the stars would align and USA could upset. Imagine if say, next year GF, AW and AW were all running to their potential....

Also, don't underestimate the ability of the Kenyan Federation to screw up the selection process. This is one of the reasons the Ethiopians have cleaned up in the medals in the past.

No one has mentioned the women yet. Probably not the US. Could be Russia if they are/were actually clean.

If you did all time DMR teams this is what you'd get. Here's a rundown of the main suspects:

Team Kenya:

1200: Ngeny(2:11.96/3:43y), Kitur (44.18), Koskei(1:42.28), Lagat (3:26.3)

Team USA:

1200: Webb(1:43.8/3:46y), Johnson (43.18), Gray(1:42.6), Scott (3:47.6y)

Team Spain:

1200: Estevez(3:30.57), Cornet(44.96), Reina(1:43.83), Cacho (3:28.95)

Team Morocco:

1200: Aouita(2:15.16/3:29.46), Lahlou(45.03), Laalou(1:43.25), El Guerrouj (3:26.00)

Team Algeria:

1200: Boukensa (2:16.13/3:30.92), Louahala(45.13), Said Guerni(1:43.2), Morceli (3:27.37)

Team France:

1200: Maazouzi(2:15.26/3:31.45), Djhone(44.46), Marajo(1:43.9), Baala (3:28.98)

Team Great Britain:

1200: Coe (1:41.7/3:29), Thomas(44.36), Elliot(1:42.97), Cram(3:46.3y)

Team New Zealand:

1200: Walker(2:16.57/3:49.0y), 400=?, Snell (1:44.3y), Willis(3:32.0)

One more to add-

Team Republic of South Africa:

1200: Mulaudzi(1:42.89/2:15.86), Mokganyetsi(44.89), Sepeng(1:42.69), Fourie(3:50.82)

At the olympics there would probably have to be qualifying heats, as there are for the other relays. 1500 and 800 runners already have rounds and semis before the final. So if a country puts the top guy on the relay and he is good enough to make the final in the 1500 or 800 then you could have him running 5 races in 1 week. You would have to do this to your top 1500 guy, your top 800 guys AND 1 more for the 1200. It would be likely to see teams putting in subs for qualifying or burning out in individual events. In this case the event would favor the Kenyans, who have vastly superior depth at every distance except the 400, the least influential leg on a dmr.

That said, I would love to see some kind of distance relay at the olympics.

Poker wrote:

Team New Zealand:

1200: Walker(2:16.57/3:49.0y), 400=?, Snell (1:44.3y), Willis(3:32.0)

Chris Donaldson perhaps

Poker wrote:

One more to add-

Team Republic of South Africa:

1200: Mulaudzi(1:42.89/2:15.86), Mokganyetsi(44.89), Sepeng(1:42.69), Fourie(3:50.82)

Team Germany

1200: Wülbeck (1:43,65/3:33,74), Schönlebe (44,33), Beyer (1:43,84), Wessinghage (3:31,58)

Canada wouldint be bad

1200 - Nate Brennan - Olympian this year

400 - Tyler Christopher won last years Iaaf indoors

800 - Gary Reed 4th at the olympics

1500 - Kevin Sullivan who has been top 5 at the olympics

How has no one mentioned the all-out World Record race at the 2006 Penn Relays?

Granted, Lukezic instead of Webb and some different 400m runners... but this is a more realistic picture, don't you think?

Pl Time ID Affiliation/Runners

1 9:15.56 KBL Kenya A

Elkanah Angweni (2:50.8), Thomas Musembi (45.8), Alfred Kirwa Yego (1:46.2), Alex Kipchirchir (3:52.8)

2 9:15.63 BLU USA Blue

Chris Lukezic (2:51.7), James Carter (45.6), Khadevis Robinson (1:44.5), Bernard Lagat (3:53.8)

3 9:21.36 ALL World All-Stars

Mark Fountain (AUS) (2:51.2), Damion Barry (TRI) (45.1), Sherridan Kirk (TRI) (1:47.1), Julius Achon UGA) (3:58.0)

4 9:22.27 KGR Kenya B

Bernard Kiptum (2:52.3), Justus Koech (48.5), Geoffrey Rono (1:48.7), Boaz Cheboiywo (3:52.8)

5 9:25.55 RED USA Red

Jon Rankin (2:51.2), Milt Campbell (44.6), Kevin Hicks (1:47.3), Charles Gruber (4:02.5)

Notes

Kenya A (9:15.56) and USA Blue (9:15.63) run the two fastest times ever in this event. USA Blue establishes a new American record. The previous world and American best of 9:20.10 was set by the University of Arkansas at the 1989 Penn Relays.

QuotesAlex Kipchirchir(Anchor of Distance Medley Champs)

Kenya-Black

Last leg of race

"The last 150 meters, I could not believe [Bernard] Legat was not sprinting. He opened a gap of two meters, but, I managed to close it. My legs just guided me to winning."

400-1500 coach wrote:

Most years, USA would lose about 0.5sec/40 to Kenya on 800-1500 legs,

What the hell does this even mean? Anyways, I'm just gonna say yer wrong, coach. They would lose way more than .5sec/40. Take away Lagat and our guys are more like 5 seconds behind year after year.

Between Webb, Lagat, Lukezic, et al, we've had someone 3:33 or better for a number of years now (Webb being #1 in 2007), while the Kenyans usually have a 3:31 guy. With guys like Wheating, Manzano, Lamong, Rankin, etc. in the pipeline that pattern should continue. Correspondingly in the 800, the spread is usually 1-1.5 sec..So 0.5 sec per 400m holds up pretty well, statistically.

Life coach wrote:

400-1500 coach wrote:

Most years, USA would lose about 0.5sec/40 to Kenya on 800-1500 legs,

What the hell does this even mean? Anyways, I'm just gonna say yer wrong, coach. They would lose way more than .5sec/40. Take away Lagat and our guys are more like 5 seconds behind year after year.

ming ding xiong wrote:

I love it when Americans think their international nobodies can take on the world and win. Webb's one fast race counts because it's times that count, and Lagat's championship credentials count because it's a race, after all. Never mind that Webb is completely unpredictable and Lagat, as great as he is, hasn't run faster than 3:32 the last couple of years. Kenya is far more likely to send two sure things at 1200 and the mile, not to mention 800.

I did not see anyone saying the U.S. would win, most people are saying the U.S. can't win. Someone said that the Webb and Lagat of couple of years ago who put us in the mix and being that the anchor leg is so significant, I see where this is an invalid statement.

400-1500 coach wrote:

Between Webb, Lagat, Lukezic, et al, we've had someone 3:33 or better for a number of years now (Webb being #1 in 2007), while the Kenyans usually have a 3:31 guy. With guys like Wheating, Manzano, Lamong, Rankin, etc. in the pipeline that pattern should continue. Correspondingly in the 800, the spread is usually 1-1.5 sec..

Starting in 2005:

3:29.30 Bernard Lagat USA 12/12/1974 1 Rieti 28/08/2005

3:29.72 Daniel Kipchirchir Komen KEN 27/11/1984 1 Berlin 04/09/2005

3:30.00 Rashid Ramzi BRN 17/07/1980 1 Roma 08/07/2005

3:30.01 Daniel Kipchirchir Komen 1 Paris Saint-Denis 01/07/2005

3:30.37 Daniel Kipchirchir Komen 2 Roma 08/07/2005

3:30.49 Daniel Kipchirchir Komen 1 Zürich 19/08/2005

3:30.64 Bernard Lagat 2 Paris Saint-Denis 01/07/2005

3:30.77 Daniel Kipchirchir Komen 1 Doha 13/05/2005

3:30.80 Mehdi Baala FRA 17/08/1978 3 Paris Saint-Denis 01/07/2005

3:30.82 Alex Kipchirchir KEN 26/11/1984 4 Paris Saint-Denis 01/07/2005

3:31.04 Daham Najim Bashir QAT 08/11/1979 2 Doha 13/05/2005

3:31.04 Bernard Lagat 2 Zürich 19/08/2005

3:31.09 Bernard Lagat 3 Roma 08/07/2005

3:31.10 Alex Kipchirchir 3 Doha 13/05/2005

3:31.13 Daniel Kipchirchir Komen 1 Bruxelles 26/08/2005

3:31.46 Daniel Kipchirchir Komen 1r1 Sevilla 04/06/2005

3:31.72 Isaac Kiprono Songok KEN 25/04/1984 2 Berlin 04/09/2005

3:31.85 Suleiman Kipses Simotwo KEN 21/04/1980 3 Berlin 04/09/2005

1500 Metres 2006

3:29.02 Daniel Kipchirchir Komen KEN 27/11/1984 1 Roma 14/07/2006

3:29.14 Rashid Ramzi BRN 17/07/1980 2 Roma 14/07/2006

3:29.68 Bernard Lagat USA 12/12/1974 1 Rieti 27/08/2006

3:30.27 Daniel Kipchirchir Komen 1 Athína (Olympic Stadium) 03/07/2006

3:31.08 Ivan Heshko UKR 19/08/1979 1 Paris Saint-Denis 08/07/2006

3:31.10 Adil Kaouch MAR 01/01/1979 3 Roma 14/07/2006

3:31.36 Alex Kipchirchir KEN 26/11/1984 2 Paris Saint-Denis 08/07/2006

3:31.48 Bernard Lagat 3 Paris Saint-Denis 08/07/2006

3:31.57 Juan Carlos Higuero ESP 03/08/1978 4 Roma 14/07/2006

3:31.58 Tarek Boukensa ALG 19/11/1981 5 Roma 14/07/2006

3:31.58 Tarek Boukensa 2 Rieti 27/08/2006

3:31.61 Ivan Heshko 6 Roma 14/07/2006

3:31.67 Suleiman Kipses Simotwo KEN 21/04/1980 4 Paris Saint-Denis 08/07/2006

3:31.78 Ivan Heshko 2 Athína (Olympic Stadium) 03/07/2006

3:31.85 Tarek Boukensa 3 Athína (Olympic Stadium) 03/07/2006

3:31.85 Isaac Kiprono Songok KEN 25/04/1984 5 Paris Saint-Denis 08/07/2006

3:31.96 Shedrack Kibet Korir KEN 12/04/1978 1r1 Lausanne 11/07/2006

3:31.97 Elkanah Onkware Angwenyi KEN 05/02/1983 7 Roma 14/07/2006

1500 Metres 2007

3:30.54 Alan Webb USA 13/01/1983 1 Paris Saint-Denis 06/07/2007

3:30.92 Tarek Boukensa ALG 19/11/1981 1 Roma 13/07/2007

3:31.01 Mehdi Baala FRA 17/08/1978 2 Paris Saint-Denis 06/07/2007

3:31.05 Mehdi Baala 1 Strasbourg 28/06/2007

3:31.18 Shedrack Kibet Korir KEN 12/04/1978 2 Roma 13/07/2007

3:31.49 Belal Mansoor Ali BRN 17/10/1988 1 Athína (Olympic Stadium) 02/07/2007

3:31.58 Alex Kipchirchir KEN 26/11/1984 3 Roma 13/07/2007

3:31.73 Augustine Kiprono Choge KEN 21/01/1987 1 Doha 11/05/2007

3:31.75 Daniel Kipchirchir Komen KEN 27/11/1984 1 Shanghai 28/09/2007

3:31.89 Suleiman Kipses Simotwo KEN 21/04/1980 4 Roma 13/07/2007

3:31.98 Suleiman Kipses Simotwo 2 Doha 11/05/2007

3:32.13 Youssef Baba MAR 07/08/1979 3 Doha 11/05/2007

3:32.18 Juan Carlos Higuero ESP 03/08/1978 5 Roma 13/07/2007

3:32.28 Belal Mansoor Ali 1 Monaco 25/07/2007

3:32.35 Tarek Boukensa 4 Doha 11/05/2007

3:32.35 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13/06/1982 2 Shanghai 28/09/2007

1500 Metres 2008

3:31.49 Daniel Kipchirchir Komen KEN 27/11/1984 1 Monaco 29/07/2008

3:31.57 Augustine Kiprono Choge KEN 21/01/1987 1 Berlin 01/06/2008

3:31.64 Asbel Kipruto Kiprop KEN 30/06/1989 1 Roma 11/07/2008

3:31.88 Abdalaati Iguider MAR 25/03/1987 2 Roma 11/07/2008

3:31.91 Daniel Kipchirchir Komen 2 Berlin 01/06/2008

3:31.94 Shedrack Kibet Korir KEN 12/04/1978 2 Monaco 29/07/2008

3:31.98 Tarek Boukensa ALG 19/11/1981 3 Roma 11/07/2008

3:31.99 Shedrack Kibet Korir 3 Berlin 01/06/2008

3:32.00 Mehdi Baala FRA 17/08/1978 4 Roma 11/07/2008

3:32.06 Mohamed Moustaoui MAR 02/04/1985 5 Roma 11/07/2008

3:32.06 Haron Keitany KEN 17/12/1983 1 Zürich 29/08/2008

3:32.10 Abdalaati Iguider 4 Berlin 01/06/2008

3:32.16 Alex Kipchirchir KEN 26/11/1984 5 Berlin 01/06/2008

3:32.37 Abdalaati Iguider 1 Rabat 14/06/2008

3:32.40 Augustine Kiprono Choge 1 Paris Saint-Denis 18/07/2008

3:32.55 Geoffrey Kipkoech Rono KEN 21/04/1987 6 Berlin 01/06/2008

3:32.57 Juan Carlos Higuero ESP 03/08/1978 6 Roma 11/07/2008

That's like thirteen different Kenyans and two Americans. And one is an ex-Kenyan and the other is a one-hit wonder. So what pipeline are you talking about?