IRONMAN TRIATHLON LANCE OR MOTTRAM?

Citizen Runner wrote:

Let's review. At Noosa, Craig Walton (who lead the 2000 Olympic Triathlon up until midway through the run, has won Noosa a bunch of times, and is known for hammering the swim and bike stages) put 6 minutes into Mottram over 40 km. My presumption is that over the Ironman distance (4.5 times that distance) he'd get in 30 minutes or so. Considering Jalabert's performance Armstrong might do about the same. In short, Mottram is weak on the bike, but I don't believe he is as weak as some of you presume. He's a very good swimmer and obviously a world class runner.

I don't see Armstrong having a clear advantage over Mottram in an Olympic distance race. At the Ironman distance, Armstrong has demonstrated ability in very long races whereas Mottram is an unknown.

It doesn't work like that. Just because you think Armstrong would only get 6 minutes over Mottram in Olympic distance it does not follow that for 4 times the distance, you can just multiply by 4. When a person lacks the endurance to truly race a longer event, their deficiencies in attempting to race it are a lot worse than linear.

Mr. Butler better think about getting on a pro tour team before running another marathon if he averaged 29.15mph over 100 mi.

I do not want to say that he did not ride 3:26 for this distance, but I will say that he either had tornado as a tail wind or he lost at least 4000 ft of elevation.

You could not inject enough drugs into a human body to go that fast over 100mi....or ws it 100k?

Mottram in an Olympic Distance

Lance in IRONMAN

In Olympic distance, whatever Mottram would lose on the bike would be gained right back or more on the run. And Mottram is probably a better swimmer.

Lance is used to doing the longer stuff so I go with him for an IRONMAN

Mottram does have a pretty good background in tris and won a few major ones a few years back. I think it would be a close one.

Hi Paul

i cant find a quote for butlers 3.26 for the hundred(i may have been mistaken) but as you can see here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Best_All-Rounder

he has managed an average of over 27miles per hour for a combination of a 50 / 100 / and 12hr timetrial...and the courses in the uk are out and back type...he is not cycling anymore but he is one phenomenal non professional athlete

all the best

scott

First off, I'm not sure why people assume Mottram is the better swimmer. Lance was one of better distance freestylers in Texas in high school and Texas is a swimming powerhouse. Also, while Mottram's 19:55 1500 meter swim is repectable, it is certainly not stellar. A sub 20 1.5k open water swim is really not that difficult as long as you have some sort of swimming background. Give them both time to train in the swim, I'd call it even at best for Mottram in the swim.

As for the bike, this leg comprises about 55-60% of the race for the Ironman elites, making it the most important. Lance would absolutely destroy Mottram on the bike. It would not even be close. Mottram's 1:01:50 40k bike split at Noosa is rather pedestrian even for age-group triathletes. Now, Lance is a seven time TDF winner and former World Cycling Champion. That's comparable to a 16:00 5k runner racing Paul Tergat in the marathon. Craig Walton put 6 minutes on Mottram in the Noosa race, and even though Walton is probably the best cyclist on the ITU circuit, Lance would easily be able to put a few minutes on Walton (when in shape). Pro cyclists can go sub 50 in a 40k TT. Now expand that over 4 times the distance where Mottram will rapidly deteriorate in efficiency and strength whereas Lance would be able to keep close to the same pace.

A 112 mile bike ride is a brutal challenge, even if you just want to finish it. Now try racing it, then tacking on a marathon afterwards, Mottram would crumble. Remember, Lance rode 112 mile bike rides daily during his career. In the TDF he raced 100+ mile races daily for a whole month. After completing a 112 mile bike race Lance would be immeasurably more 'fresh' than Mottram, who may have never even ridden a bike ride that long before in his life. Mottram may even struggle to break 3:00 in the marathon depending on how tight his quads/hamstrings/calves are and how much pain he has in his lower back from the bike. Being a triathlete, your running ability can be tremendously mitigated if you don't have the aerobic base on the bike to be able to handle the long rides and come off the bike feeling loose and ready to transition into a run. Lance obviously has more than a 'base' for cycling. Because of the fact that the bike comes before the run, Mottram's superiority in the run would be lessened.

Mottram averaged just over 24 mph in his 24.8 mile bike tri race. Normann Stadler, who won the 2006 Ironman, averaged over 26 mph for a 112 mile ride. Assuming an in-shape Lance can atleast hang with Stadler, and more than likely put 10-15 minutes on him, and giving Mottram a generous 22 mph average, that's already over 50 minutes Mottram would have to make up. Lance would probably pull off a 3:15 marathon or so; there is no way Mottram is running a 2:30 or under.

Also, for those who say Mottram couldn't race in the Noosa Elite wave because they didn't want him to win, which may have been the reason, in reality there is no way he would have been close to winning anyway. In fact, his time would have probably been the same. His swim was over 1:30 slower than that whole Elite pack ahead of him which would have made it impossible for him to catch up to and draft off that bike pack ahead of him. So he would have ridden solo anyway. In ITU races, you can't win the race on the swim, but you can most definitely lose it. Even in an olympic distance race, Lance could probably pick up 8 minutes on the bike, and given Mottram runs his 32 10k (which I expected to be much much faster), I'm sure Lance would be sub 40.

So that is my outlook on the race.

You Americans crack me up....

Firstly Mottram did Noosa off 6-8 weeks training and did it as a bit of fun after Athens.

He was in the top 20 based on times and the cycle leg is quite tough and Walton is a gun.

Lance is a gun cyclists but would he be able to contain himself so he too is not smashed off the bike before the run. As someone pointed out about Mottram crumbling, so would Lance as he is not a very mobile distance athlete. Shoot he cant even run 4min/ km for 42km (2hr 48min) where as Mottram could run 2hrs 20mins right now without having adequately trained for one.

You say Lance was a gun. Against who? He only competed against Americans and lets face it tri's were not what they are today. Mottram only competed against Aussies so trying to make out that they were both super stars is a crock because if they were they would be doing them instead of running or cycling.

Lance is a good cyclists and Mottram is runner but trying to work out who would be better over an Iron Man is ridiculous. Too many variables and neither one of us really know the full background of their tri's so stop acting like you do.

Lance stated that he would take the worst day in the tour de france over running a marathon because it was so hard so it goes to show that running is much harder and that comes from the man himself...

I remember Mark Allan saying how he was a great runner and after his tri career was going to show us and make the Olympic marathon team and he never ever broke 2hr 20mins so what was the point of analyzing that like the Mottram V's Lance iron-man.

So stop analyzing Mottram at Noosa like he did it as a major race as it was done for fun as part of his break and Lance who did tri's last millenium..

triathlon run distances are not ever accurate.

This is all fun speculation that this show down would ever happen. Lance will never race Kona as a PRO.

If he did, and trained for the swim and run portions, he would not be the bike monster we all image. 27.6mph or 15 min faster than Normann would be a miracle....especially if Lance's legs are pounding 60-70 miles per week and his new found upper body mass is pulling 20,000m of water per week.

I wish Mottram (and Alan Webb-he can swim and learn how to turn the cranks) would enter the sport.

Lance said he would take the worst day in the TDF over a marathon because that comment came after he ran the whole marathon with shin splints! Obviously that would make the race extremely painful. Also, he wasn't adequately prepared for the race training wise and his body isn't built for running like it is for cycling. I don't see how you think this comment proves running is harder. Both sports are difficult, but due to the fact that running contains a large amount of impact, there are limitations to the amount of training one can do for it, whereas in cycling they are out there 6 hours everyday training. That sounds much more strenuous to me. Cycling races are multi-day events that are a combination of endurance, climbing, time trialing, and sprinting where the victor will have to be a master of all. Also, from my experience in both sports, cycling builds up much more lactic acid in the legs than running.

sunglasses wrote:

Lance said he would take the worst day in the TDF over a marathon because that comment came after he ran the whole marathon with shin splints!

Actually it came after he ran the whole marathon with a stress fracture

whatever!

Mottram would easily run 2:35-40 for the Marathon...Lance maybe a 3:30..

Could lance put a 45 min gap on him in the earlier stages?!

Over 112 miles? Yes.

runfirst wrote:

whatever!

Mottram would easily run 2:35-40 for the Marathon...Lance maybe a 3:30..

Could lance put a 45 min gap on him in the earlier stages?!

If you seriously think today's Mottram could run 2:35-2:40 off the bike in Kona, then you are smoking some good sh*t. I'm not saying he couldn't do it with a few years of long distance cycling training under his belt (he probably could), but today I'd wager he'd have a hard time with 3 hours, much less 2:45.

I was a 30:30 10K runner when I did my first olympic distance tri. With no bike training, I didn't make sub-40 for 10K after the bike leg. A mate of mine who was a sub-3:40 1500 meter runner had a similar result, running about 39 minutes for 10K off the bike his first time. The run leg of a triathlon is at least as much about cycling fitness as it is running fitness.

Mark Allen and Dave Scott would beat them both!

Alan

C'mon Curtus lighten up we're just having a little fun...Oh, and Armstrong wins by 00:31:23...Next question?

Got to say even though I like Mottram way more than Lance, it would be Lance all the way... and while I think Mottram might be able to train up to the ability of a very elite Ironman competitor, Lance would have the technique advantage time and time again due to his Triathlon, and Biking background.

Lance has been at the elite end of both triathlons and biking, while Mottram hasn't.