tergat is definitely too old to win next year and geb is approaching that age range as well. i would say the favorites are:
robert cheruyiot-kenya
felix limo-kenya
martin lel-kenya
paul tergat-kenya
a. goumri-morocco
j. gharib-morocco (getting older as well)
geb-ethiopia
ryan hall-usa
obviously kenya can only select 3 runners.
You're on crack if you think that Ryan Hall is more talented than Geb. I have no doub t that Ryan wouldn't say the same thing (in so many words).
When Ryan runs 3:31 indoors, 12:39, 26:22 and 2:04, we'll start talking. Right now, the 2:04 is the only one withing the realm of possibility. I'm not alone in thinking that Ryan can take down the AR, but I don't think you really appreciate how great Geb is when you make a statement like that.
Flagpole Willy wrote:
I think he has as good a shot as anyone at winning that gold medal.
I think you put it best of all the posts on this thread so far. In the Olympic Marathon, there are so many who really have no shot and there are a couple who are thought of as favorites but of those favorites it's very hard to say one is more likely to win than another. Right now I think that Hall is among the favorites and has just as good a shot at the gold as anyone.
gfjhg wrote:
I actually think hall has more talent than geb or tergat. This kid has a big, strong, powerfull, relaxed, fast stride. Noone on this earth has more talent, and his newfound realizations about life, ... this kid is the best.
i am in awe of his dedication, from training day in and out, to struggling through stanford, to inner growth as a christian. Hall is not even getting started at doing the things he is born to do. I really am in awe.
I agree with this completely. I think he has talent equal to a Geb or Tergat to be perfectly honest. I mean, he did run sub-50 for the quarter in HS, and he has been logging 100 mile weeks for YEARS... just like the best Africans.
The reason I brought up his faith in the original post is that his faith absolutely does and will help him as a runner. Because of Ryan's beliefs, he believes in himself while remaining humble. He enjoys his running because it is a spiritual experience for him, and I'm sure he draws on his faith while he is actually running as well. Of course there are other athletes who are similarly strong in their faith, and I would never argue that religious faith is necessary to be the toughest runner, but I have noticed that many tough athletes take their spiritual lives very seriously. There is something to be said for a correlation between the ethics needed to stick to what one believes in and resist potentially harmful temptations in life and the worth ethic and toughness required for success in distance running.
I remember when Hall was in HS, he was being talked about for the mile and everything, but one of his heavy workouts were these 10-milers that were reportedly close to 5-flat pace. Back then his talent at longer distances was already clear.
somehomodude wrote:
gfjhg wrote:I actually think hall has more talent than geb or tergat. This kid has a big, strong, powerfull, relaxed, fast stride. Noone on this earth has more talent, and his newfound realizations about life, ... this kid is the best.
i am in awe of his dedication, from training day in and out, to struggling through stanford, to inner growth as a christian. Hall is not even getting started at doing the things he is born to do. I really am in awe.
I agree with this completely. I think he has talent equal to a Geb or Tergat to be perfectly honest. I mean, he did run sub-50 for the quarter in HS, and he has been logging 100 mile weeks for YEARS... just like the best Africans.
The reason I brought up his faith in the original post is that his faith absolutely does and will help him as a runner. Because of Ryan's beliefs, he believes in himself while remaining humble. He enjoys his running because it is a spiritual experience for him, and I'm sure he draws on his faith while he is actually running as well. Of course there are other athletes who are similarly strong in their faith, and I would never argue that religious faith is necessary to be the toughest runner, but I have noticed that many tough athletes take their spiritual lives very seriously. There is something to be said for a correlation between the ethics needed to stick to what one believes in and resist potentially harmful temptations in life and the worth ethic and toughness required for success in distance running.
Ryan has NEVER broken 50sec in the 400m. His PR is 50.5 from 2001.
And we'll see if he ends up going the Jonathon Edwards route. I doubt it, though.
huh?? wrote:
I remember when Hall was in HS, he was being talked about for the mile and everything, but one of his heavy workouts were these 10-milers that were reportedly close to 5-flat pace. Back then his talent at longer distances was already clear.
10mi training runs a 5min pace is what you'd expect from a 4min miler. You can usually bet that if a guy can run ~50sec in the 400m and can run 10mi in 50min pretty comfortably, that they have a 4min mile in them.
somehomodude wrote:I think he has talent equal to a Geb or Tergat to be perfectly honest.
You Americans are hilarious.
By Hall's age (25), Geb had run 7:25/8:01/12:39/26:22 and won an Olympic gold medal and three world titles at 10,000 metres.
All Hall has done is run a fast half marathon, finish 7th at a major marathon and run a 2:09 marathon on a tough course. That doesn't even compare.
Yes, I think Hall and Webb represent two of the most talented distance runners the US has ever produced. But to say that they are of the same talent as Geb and Tergat is to have a total lack of appreciation for how good those two were/are.
3:46.91
and
2:09:04 on that course.
at 24-25 years of age.
with 5 years at least of those times or faster.
yeah they're not as good now, but they're probably going to peak later and hold it longer.
It's kind of weird to think, but if Ritz runs 10,000m instead of the marathon, Hall could lose an Olympic medal to KK. Hall knows what a marathon force KK is. Hall admitted after the trials that when he saw KK's name on the board, that's when he laid the hammer down. KK wasn't in top shape for the trials, but Hall still knew KK was a serious threat.
Most Americans would be thrilled to have 2 Americans medal in the marathon, but most Hall fans would be disappointed if KK got the best of Hall in Beijing.
sjc wrote:
tergat is definitely too old to win next year and geb is approaching that age range as well. i would say the favorites are:
robert cheruyiot-kenya
felix limo-kenya
martin lel-kenya
paul tergat-kenya
a. goumri-morocco
j. gharib-morocco (getting older as well)
geb-ethiopia
ryan hall-usa
obviously kenya can only select 3 runners.
Doesn't the list of contenders in the recent Olympic marathons almost always turn out as several (but less than expected) Africans, a Brazilian, a couple of Europeans and several (more than expected) semi-unknown Asians? I would be surprised if it turned out to be only Africans + Hall at the front. I'd accent the Asians this time considering that the race is in China. I'll bet the Koreans and Japanese are hyped for this one, and of course the Chinese.
I agree there will be more local talent near the front, i am pulling for Hall but i have heard terrible things about the the air quality in Bejing. Running in NYC or Mammoth or even in heat & humidity are not representative of bad air quality. The air quality in So Cal was much worse in the early 70's and someone use to say it was like running while sucking on a muffler. Then i went to Eastern Europe and just about choked on the fumes there while trying to run. The sky was yellow i swear, those stupid little Trabants running on glorified Kerosene, An entire City running on two stroke engines, imagine Los Angeles but where every car had a lawnmower engine.
now run.
If you train in that crap you adapt(or quit)
At Mammoth you breathe deep and efficient, but in Bejing you will need to change your breathing to run fast
there is one guy who is in 2:04 shape
i think hall has been impressive but for anyone to say he has talent remotely approaching that of geb is just being a blind idiot
hall may do great things - but fact is he has not yet, at all
geb as it now stands is the single greatest runner ever, there are few who would argue with that
what has hall done to distinguish himself as a world class athlete?
7th london debut -
that is great but there was another guy making his debut who ran faster
goumri then ran extremely well in his second marathon - in new york
to be fair hall isn't even the best young marathon runner
gfjhg wrote:
I actually think hall has more talent than geb or tergat. This kid has a big, strong, powerfull, relaxed, fast stride. Noone on this earth has more talent, and his newfound realizations about life, ... this kid is the best.
i am in awe of his dedication, from training day in and out, to struggling through stanford, to inner growth as a christian. Hall is not even getting started at doing the things he is born to do. I really am in awe.
Have you ever seen geb run? He drops sub-60 halfs while he looks like he's jogging. He's not just a great runner--he's in a different category.
I'm glad you've found a hero and all that--it's very important, but let's see him beat maybe one or two africans before declaring him world champ.
not a bad race wrote:
You Americans are hilarious.
By Hall's age (25), Geb had run 7:25/8:01/12:39/26:22 and won an Olympic gold medal and three world titles at 10,000 metres.
All Hall has done is run a fast half marathon, finish 7th at a major marathon and run a 2:09 marathon on a tough course. That doesn't even compare.
Geb was actually 35 at the time in ePo-pian years. No one is saying Hall is on the same level. But Hall is among the elite who have broken the fabled one hour mark for the half running totally by himself, and his trials effort was worth a 2:06 (2:07:25 for the last 37.2K by himself on a rolling course coasting to the finish and dropping a 44:12 for 15k at the end). He has as good a shot at medaling as anyone. Weather may play a factor and favor the Africans heavily, but London back in April wasn't exactly Winter.
For what it's worth, two aspects of this thread from this weekend.
First, Saturday night I literally bumped into Gelindo Bordin, so after saying, "Scusi," I took the chance to ask him about Hall's chances to medal in Beijing. He said they're very good, that he's among the top tier. He said Hall is "big, big talent. Biggest talent you have in 20 years. Maybe more." He said for Beijing would need to add heat training.
The next morning, Hall appeared briefly in the media center during the regular marathon. He said he wouldn't be going somewhere specifically for heat training, that Meb's and Kastor's experience at Athens leads them to believe that the key is to get as fit as possible, and that going someplace really hot and humid would compromise quantity and quality. Sounded like he'll stay in Mammoth and, like Kastor before Athens, wear layers on easy runs. (He said he did this some before London.) As for pollution, he said the thing to do is to avoid it, not go train in it, because of the damage it could do to your lungs and the compromises it would cause in training. Before Athens, Kastor et al went to hot (but non polluted) conditions for the last three weeks, and it sounded like at this point that's what he'll do before Beijing.
Sagarin wrote:He has as good a shot at medaling as anyone.
Sure, I'll agree with that. I just don't think a lot of people on this thread realize how many people 'anyone' includes. There are a lot of 2:08 guys. Goumri is a 2:07 guy who stayed with Lel for about 42 km in two major marathons. Hall isn't there yet.
Here's a list of three other 2:06 guys, ones you've likely never heard of.
2:06:29 Emmanuel Mutai KEN 01 04 1978 1 Amsterdam 21 10 2007
2:06:45 Richard Limo KEN 18 11 1980 2 Amsterdam 21 10 2007
2:06:51 Abel Kirui KEN 1982 2 Berlin 30 09 2007
You also want to consider Patrick Ivuti at Chicago for the race he put in, along with Luke Kibet and Joshua Chelanga (2:08 on a very hot day in Rotterdam). Granted, Kenya can only send three guys, but unless they send a B team, it's hard for you to tell me that Hall is better than any of them.
From Morocco you want to consider Goumri and Gharib. From Switzerland there will be Viktor Rothlin who has run 2:08 and has a bronze from Osaka. From Qatar, you want to consider Mubarak Hassan Shami, a proven veteran with a 2:07 PB and a WC silver. Then there's also Geb. Those are eight people (three Kenyans, two Moroccans, a Swiss, a Qatari and an Ethiopian) who are better than Hall. They just don't happen to be American. Anything can happen in a marathon, sure, but a lot of people in this thread need to get a grip.
Frits wrote:
Slim chance Hall can medal. Beijing will be hot/humid. Hall is a cold weather runner.
No, Hall is a fantastic runner, and that is the only kind of runner he is. Don't try and doubt those at a level you will never reach. Besides, with that kind of statement, it implies you've seen him fail in heat, when might have that been, you ignorant prick........
sjc wrote:
tergat is definitely too old to win next year and geb is approaching that age range as well. i would say the favorites are:
robert cheruyiot-kenya
felix limo-kenya
martin lel-kenya
paul tergat-kenya
a. goumri-morocco
j. gharib-morocco (getting older as well)
geb-ethiopia
ryan hall-usa
obviously kenya can only select 3 runners.
Wow, I cannot believe how many crappy posts people have put on this thread!!! What do you think Geb ages faster then everyone else. He just set the WR a little over a month ago. He is the favorite! END