The Trials are only about 3 months away! Is there an unknown or a surprize for the 3rd spot? There are so many guys with a legit shot.
I'd pick Hall and Meb. Culpepper seems to come through when it counts. Is someone going to have a breakthrough on a (hopfully) perfect fall day in NYC?
The problem with the marathon is that the training period up to it means as much as the race. Get the flu in late September and it could mess up the marathon in November.
Abdi is more likely to win the Trials race, but he's also more likely to blow up & fail to make the team altogether. So if winning is defined as making the team, Hall is more likely to win.
Gilmore is awesome, but I don't see how he can make the team. He's the most consistent of the bunch, but there are at least eight guys who, on a good day, are better than he is on his best day. Six of them would have to have bad days for him to make it.
1.hall- wins by about 30 seconds, finally back in shape
2.Meb- the tougher courses seem to suit him well, he's not out of it yet, just had some crappy luck
3.sell-also a tough course kinda guy
4.abdi-with his newfound confidence he'll try to break away around 16 miles knowing he can win, and then he shuffles in the last 3 miles at 5:45 pace, becuase when you break in the marathon it hurts alot more
5.cabada- lets forget that thread I made about him, but not ready yet to hang with that front pack
6.bizuneh- also young and years away from his prime
7.Gilmore- consistency is a virtue unless you want to actually make the team
8.culpepper- out the back door, he doesn't have much life left in his legs
Do you know how hot it was in London when Hall ran?
Hall
Sell
Meb (past his prime)
Abdi
KK makes the team in 2:09:02, proclaims this as his proudest moment to represent the U.S., and then doesn't.
Or maybe not.
facts always figure wrote:
Closing speed is overated in the marathon.
Closing in a marathon to me, is meant by a last 5K-10K. Not an ending sprint.
Hall of fame wrote:
Do you know how hot it was in London when Hall ran?
No.... but I remember Hall stating afterwards that the temps were a little too hot for any records. I "want" to say it was upper 60's F...but I can't remember for sure.
70 F with 70% humidity
thechamelion wrote:
1.hall- wins by about 30 seconds, finally back in shape
2.Meb- the tougher courses seem to suit him well, he's not out of it yet, just had some crappy luck
3.sell-also a tough course kinda guy
4.abdi-with his newfound confidence he'll try to break away around 16 miles knowing he can win, and then he shuffles in the last 3 miles at 5:45 pace, becuase when you break in the marathon it hurts alot more
5.cabada- lets forget that thread I made about him, but not ready yet to hang with that front pack
6.bizuneh- also young and years away from his prime
7.Gilmore- consistency is a virtue unless you want to actually make the team
8.culpepper- out the back door, he doesn't have much life left in his legs
Anything can happen in a marathon, but I don't see how anyone can pick Abdi not to make the team. He just crushed the best marathoner in the world (Cheryouit) by 30 sec in a half marathon. Abdi is in a different league right now than the other guys...
BRIAN SELL OWNS YOUR SOUL. HE WINS OUTRIGHT. POSSIBLY THE BIGGEST TRAINING BADASS IN RECENT YEARS. Also I give Kyle O'Brien my darkhorse card.
On this thread, two people have said Ritz won't run the Trials, and I'm the only one picking him to make the team. What have I missed? Has there been some announcement stating that Ritz's previously declared intention to run the Trials has changed? If not, why think he won't run the Trials? And if he does run, it's hard to see he won't be in the mix (I actually think he'll win).
I could see Sell showing up with a hulk hogan mustache, winning the race, and signing a very lucrative endorsement contract with Obierto Beef Jerky. He would use his new found fame to lobby congress for legislation allowing citizens to shoot semi-automatic weapons while riding a motorcycle and listening to Ted Nugent music. He will sell the rights to his life story to a production company that will turn it into a made-for-tv movie played exclusively on the Spike channel. The roll of Sell will be played by John Stamos. The role of Abdi and Meb will be played by Kadeem Harrison and C. Thomas Howell, respectively.
In his last move as President, George W. Bush will appoint Sell as the ambassador to a small island nation with very low income taxes, lax gun control laws, and the largest manufacturing plant of Houston Rockets practice basketball shorts on the planet.
Ritz has the durability of a pretzel. I don't see him being there, much like us cross. He is not proven in the marathon yet and has a much better shot in the 10k. Check me if I am wrong, but abdi is a chronic dnf-er. You have to put a guy in there who has a debut time 3 mins faster than the previous winning trials time.so put in hall, meb just because he almost never falters, and the last spot goes to a hanson, just not sure who yet.
Brian Sell will not make this team. Is he hard core and training beast? Hell yes. But does anyone really think he can beat Meb,Abdi,or Ryan. Honestly he will have his hands full with Alan,Dathan, and possibly Khalid. The only chance he really has is if people go out way too hard and then come back to him like at Boston. But if it is a large pack at a decent pace(2:10-11) and one of the top guys drops a quick mile late in the race Sell won't be able to match any of those guys speed and will be dropped.
You stated: "BRIAN SELL... POSSIBLY THE BIGGEST TRAINING BADASS IN RECENT YEARs."
But it comes down to a RACE. And there you have it. If they just put the highest mileage guys on the team he is in. That said, I hope he makes it because his training LEADS to a successful race.
jerry mizner wrote:
abdi is a chronic dnf-er.
when has he DNF'd? in his debut he stuck it out in NYC and ran 2:17. i don't think he's ever DNF'd a marathon, and i can't remember any other races he's not finished, and i've been watching him race since U of A.
go abdi! throw some D's on that bitch!
because ritz has only run 1 marathon and has recently become the king of underperforming in national championship races. it seems like he only runs well in races where the outcome isn't the most important ex: healthy kidney 10k, pre classic, belfast xc, etc. the last 2 national championship races he has run haven't had the best outcomes. good but not what people were expecting. everyone expected him to win in boulder in his own backyard and he was third. coming off his 2 mile at pre everyone thought he was the favorite for the 10k at nationals....third again. two years ago in nyc xc nats he was the favorite and was fourth. basically he doesn't have the credentials that the other guys do. meb is a multiple time national champ and olympic silver medallist. abdi multiple time national champ and is on fire lately 208, 272x, 60:29 all in the last year. the list goes on.
Jeez you're talkin over 135-mile weeks!
JOSH COX!