-soccer (at least for girls) is a fall sport, but is a spring sport in other states, so again less chance of getting some talent
Shen girls team was in good position to maybe podium at NXN last year because they were 5-deep coming into the season, but one of those girls switched to soccer which made this team 4-deep, and another one of their top 4 girls had an off race at NXN
-soccer (at least for girls) is a fall sport, but is a spring sport in other states, so again less chance of getting some talent
Shen girls team was in good position to maybe podium at NXN last year because they were 5-deep coming into the season, but one of those girls switched to soccer which made this team 4-deep, and another one of their top 4 girls had an off race at NXN
Don't sleep on Shen. They're reloading, not rebuilding. 1-7 could realistically be all underclassmen and if my math is correct they're going to score less at NXR/Federation than they did last year.
Over a week ago, top 4 EA sophomores ran a 9:30 3200 average. To find a 5th it’s gonna take a lot of work especially at a small school like this. They have 1.5 years to find one, and if they do, they could do well at NXN when those sophomores are seniors
WM has my pick to win state/feds. They have some sleeper guys who's track times don't exactly blow you away, but they always game up when it's time for XC. Andrew Senf is going to be a strong low stick. They are going to have a tough test at their state qualifier with Northport looking to take revenge for the last 2 years.
WM has my pick to win state/feds. They have some sleeper guys who's track times don't exactly blow you away, but they always game up when it's time for XC. Andrew Senf is going to be a strong low stick. They are going to have a tough test at their state qualifier with Northport looking to take revenge for the last 2 years.
There could be a possibility that one of these teams (WM or Northport) doesn’t make states but both of them make NXN. Section 2 girls teams have the same thing going every year as of late.
East Aurora has a strong top 4, but they have a huge 4-5 gap coming into the season, which can be an issue in a large field like Feds.
Out of section 1 on the boys side, it looks like New Rochelle is going to be the favorite. I can’t remember the last time they’ve won - going back 30 years. You might even have to go back to the 80’s.
Section one has historically been dominated by North Rockland and Arlington. In the past 26 years they’ve combined for 24 of the section championships. But NR has to start a rebuild and Arlington has seemingly fallen off a cliff from where they used to be.
Baldwinsville is looking to be the favorite for section 3 boys. Last year they took second in the section race and are returning their 1-6 from that, in addition to their #1 guy Rosario who didn’t race there. Baldwinsville hasn’t qualified for states since the 1970s. FM could possibly challenge them in the section race.
Auburn was 5-deep and is losing 3 of their top 5 which is a lot of holes to fill. I don’t see them being a factor.
Which teams are the favorites to qualify to NXN on the boys side in your opinions?
For me it has to be Ward Melville and I am split between Northport/East Aurora for the 2nd spot.
There’s a bunch of nuance in this and it’s still too early. But things to look for are 3200m times and depth + what programs are doing it. It’s also important to realize that if a group of guys is serious and focused you can do a LOT in one summer block. 2 years ago Colonie came out of nowhere and basically had 7 guys all around 170.
Northport looks like they’ll have a low stick, 3 guys currently around 9:40 (one of them is a 9th grader so he will probably make a big jump) and a bunch of guys around 10-10:15.
East Aurora is 4 deep and those 4 look very solid but in XC your 5th runner is the most important. They can all go 180 but if they’re 5th is a 155 I don’t know how much it’ll matter.
Im not super familiar with WM. Based on the xc results from last year and this years 3200’s they are 3 deep with some guys around 10 that could step up.
Im going to include FM in this - mostly just because we know what Aris can hypothetically do. They have two 10th graders that just went 9:22 and 9:28. Another who went 4:34 and freshman who put up a 170 last season. So essentially 4 “deep” - more like 2.5 deep but again if Aris pushes this team has the highest ceiling of anyone.
Brighton is also in the conversation. At running cadet thier underclassmen went 9:35, 9:39, 9:40, and thier low stick from xc ran high 170’s last year so they are at least 4 deep.
Im also not too familiar with the catholic or city schools. I know someone brought up Bronx hs of science.
If I had to pick a favorite I’m probably going with Northport but I don’t see any clear favorites. I also don’t think any of these teams can be competitive at NXN this year. To go top 10, you need about a 9:15-9:20 3200 team average which none of these teams are close to. Next year might be the first year in a long time we have a shot with EA contingent on them finding a 5 or FM starting to develop talent again.
This post was edited 14 minutes after it was posted.
For Section 2 boys teams, it will be a battle between Saratoga, Guilderland, and Bethlehem. Saratoga won the section last year but they are losing 3 of their top 7 including Isenovski. Guilderland and Bethlehem weren’t too far behind and they return their entire top 5.
Over a week ago, top 4 EA sophomores ran a 9:30 3200 average. To find a 5th it’s gonna take a lot of work especially at a small school like this. They have 1.5 years to find one, and if they do, they could do well at NXN when those sophomores are seniors
East Aurora’s 5th fastest sophomore ran a 9:57 at the ECIC Championships. They’re making great progress
For section 2 girls teams it will be a battle between Bethlehem, Guilderland, and Saratoga. Shen was 4-deep last year and lose 3 of their top 4, but they should not be counted out.
For section 2 girls teams it will be a battle between Bethlehem, Guilderland, and Saratoga. Shen was 4-deep last year and lose 3 of their top 4, but they should not be counted out.
They're actually going to be better next year. 1-3 will be good with the soccer girl returning. 4-5 is going to be significantly better than their #5 situation last year. Lots of depth with at least 12 girls capable of making top seven. It could be all underclassmen. When I did the math, they should score between 75-100 points at Federation/NXR. It will be tight to win sectionals and make it to state though. As for NXN, probably around 15th place most likely.
According to this, Brighton boys and Northport have never won a XC state title before. Last time Ward Melville won a XC state title was 1969, and that was in Class B. We could see some more history being made.
Guilderland XC never won a state title before either. Their girls team may have a small chance this year, but first they have to make it out of section 2 against other teams contending for an NXN spot
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