Down goes the Dow

Bib #1 wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Futures trend points to test of 12/24/2018 low of 2,346. Bull market is dead if that level is broken.

Wow. That’s pretty dire. But as someone 90% in cash, should be music to my ears. I’ll be a buyer.

History would say that is not close to a floor. We’ll see.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Bib #1 wrote:

Wow. That’s pretty dire. But as someone 90% in cash, should be music to my ears. I’ll be a buyer.

History would say that is not close to a floor. We’ll see.

Agreed. I was 85 equities 15 cash in 12/18, so in much better shape now. I would like to add to my exposure a little bit though, given paltry cash yields.

Cash preferred asset when things collapse. Big money moves into high quality bonds because they have to find a place to park, regardless of price. That drives yield lower. Hard to see how lower Fed rate changes much. Like other period, Fed cuts as markets move lower. Unlikely to provide any significant floor.

Interesting to watch from a historical perspective. Likely to have something to tell your grandchildren. “It was so obvious, but no one cared.”

It’s not that epic.

Fact checker wrote:

It’s not that epic.

Yet, of course. We’ll see.

Fact checker wrote:

It’s not that epic.

I’ll take that response back. It is epic, with a 30 Year Treasury trading at 0.99%.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Fact checker wrote:

It’s not that epic.

I’ll take that response back. It is epic, with a 30 Year Treasury trading at 0.99%.

Your going to be telling your grandchildren about that?

The flip side of 11.9% mortgage in 1979 or a 17.9% car loan in 1981.

Think about it before posting stupid stuff.

“Update (2020ET): And there it is: for the first time since the financial crisis, the emini S&P future has hit the limit down band of -5%, something it failed to do even during the May 2010 flash crash.

This means that no more trade are allowed below the limit down level until the market opens at 9:30 am ET (assuming it opens of course). Trades higher are still permitted, naturally, however that will probably not be a great comfort to all those who are rushing to liquidate with reckless abandon. But fear not: with the S&P now down more than 17% from its all-time highs just two weeks earlier, and just shy of a bear market, those who want to sell will have ample opportunity to do so in the days ahead.”

—Zerohedge

Fact checker wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I’ll take that response back. It is epic, with a 30 Year Treasury trading at 0.99%.

Your going to be telling your grandchildren about that?

Someone else agrees:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

“Update (2020ET): And there it is: for the first time since the financial crisis, the emini S&P future has hit the limit down band of -5%, something it failed to do even during the May 2010 flash crash.

This means that no more trade are allowed below the limit down level until the market opens at 9:30 am ET (assuming it opens of course). Trades higher are still permitted, naturally, however that will probably not be a great comfort to all those who are rushing to liquidate with reckless abandon. But fear not: with the S&P now down more than 17% from its all-time highs just two weeks earlier, and just shy of a bear market, those who want to sell will have ample opportunity to do so in the days ahead.”

—Zerohedge

for the record, the last time this happened was just three years ago, election night 2016.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Enjoy what is left of the weekend. Things heat up again in less than 30 hours. Can’t wait!

?

I recently saw where someone was told to shut up for questioning anyone who would pick this guy for a financial advisor.

Someone who finds joy in the market being in turmoil, hoping to prove a point.

Shhhh wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Enjoy what is left of the weekend. Things heat up again in less than 30 hours. Can’t wait!

?

I recently saw where someone was told to shut up for questioning anyone who would pick this guy for a financial advisor.

Someone who finds joy in the market being in turmoil, hoping to prove a point.

Point is you took on too much risk and you are eating every penny of it.

Someone should have warned you.

just a reminder here...if someone does choose to sell everything tomorrow...he or she will have received one of the better historical 10 year returns from US stocks: 11% or 12% per year.

agip wrote:

just a reminder here...if someone does choose to sell everything tomorrow...he or she will have received one of the better historical 10 year returns from US stocks: 11% or 12% per year.

Since 2008?

and one of the poorest 20 year returns.....

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

and one of the poorest 20 year returns.....

But one of the best 18 year returns.