South Man writes:
"With a team like Rhodes you have to look at who is in their top 5, it's not like they have an army of backups to step in and run 26:30....They didn't run their best team until regionals. People keep citing that UW-LC race like it's a regional, but look at who Rhodes' fifth guy was there...some freshman. At regions they instead had Warth running better than usual as their 5 and Handelman coming back from injury (I'm guessing) to be their 4th. They ran much better at regionals than at previous meets."
Clearly, Rhodes is a better team than they showed at LAX, but only because their #4 runner (Handelman) didn't run at LAX. However, if he did run at LAX, and if we generously slot him in next to Moore (their #3), Rhodes only goes up 40 points, which puts them right with Hamline (who did not qualify) and still behind Luther and Wartburg (which did qualify). Now you can argue that everyone on their team has improved (from Moore all the way down to Warthy), but there's really no evidence of this, other than the usual improvement that most teams experience during the season. I mean, their spread hasn't improved since LAX, and it's not like Moore ran away with the title at Regionals. So objectively, the difference between Rhodes now and Rhodes then is Handelman, and even he doesn't make that much of a difference.
Now still, I don't think that Rhodes and Emory will finish 31st and 32nd. They aren't leaps and bounds worse than the other teams, after all, and on any given day, teams will move up or down. In my opinion, there's about 10 teams that Rhodes and Emory can beat if they run well (Anderson, Bowdoin, Carleton, Colorado, Dickinson, Heidleberg, Mt. Union, Tufts, Trinity, Wartburg). I figure, they'll beat a few of these teams, and they'll lose to a few, but in the end, both South teams will finish in the bottom ten of the meet.
I also think there are teams from stronger regions that are better than Rhodes and Emory. 4 examples are St. Lawrence, Wheaton, Wash. U, and MIT. They aren't A LOT better, but I think that on a typical day, those four would beat the 2 South teams.
Now . . . what do South teams need to do to get the region some respect? Well, if they don't go to or perform well in the big invites in the east or midwest, then the only way is to perform at Nats. In my opinion, that means that for the South to have a chance at an at-large selection next year, either one of Rhodes or Emory needs to finish in the top half of the standings (the top 16) or both need to finish in the 16-20 range. If they do that, the South will get some love.
But I wouldn't count on it. They're just not that good.