brazen2 wrote:(2) Until now, the discussion has been apolitical.
(2) Posting a graph with red/blue state data politicizes the discussion.
(3) Take the political crap to the Trump thread.
(1) I've been in this thread since the beginning, and you are mistaken, this has not been a remotely apolitical thread.
(2) Well, there is a political dimension that's interesting to explore.
(3) Sorry, no. I'm sure I was here before you. You are welcome to leave.
Giles Corey wrote:Post all the charts you like, ...
GC,
I post data in tables and graphs for people with cognitive capacity to digest them. Not everyone has that capacity, and that's OK.
Fat hurts wrote:
brazen2 wrote:
2 days of "complete" data - no projected numbers.
Notice how the curve about a week out looks similar to what happened when we actually moved into the window.
Like I said, you need to know how to read the graph. It's a little odd until you dig into it.
None of the data is complete. They even sometimes change the data outside the 14 day window. None of the numbers are projected. They all represent real cases.
However, the further you go to the left on the graph the more solid the data becomes and you expect fewer revisions.
Also, the data for a given day is never revised down to any significant degree, but it can go up quite a lot. So on the day I made my pronouncement it was clear that we were already seeing an exponential growth in cases. It wasn't a projection. It was a fact.
Projection was the incorrect term.
The data around 7 days out from current 14 day window (-14 to -7 day window) doesn't change much - up or down.
What it looks like we will see over the next 7 days in the next -14 day window is close to what is currently represented for May 25 - June 1 data. Big drop for May 25, flatten out and an outlier single day jump on June 1.
What happens to data on June 2-June 7 is still too early to tell.
Fat hurts wrote:
brazen2 wrote:
Fat Hurts - I'd like to hear you opinion on this. You seem to dispute case and death trends, as well as positivity rates. What about the rate of hospitalizations?
I am reading and interpreting the data correctly. I'm not disputing the data at all.
I don't think I've said much about hospitalizations, but I'm glad we seem to have sufficient resources. It's not something I'm particularly worried about right now.
It's not a resource issue.
It's likely a good indicator of future COVID-19 related deaths. At least a 50% decrease from peak COVID hospitalizations is very good news. If these start to increase, deaths will likely increase as well.
Test, trace, and isolate. We'll get through this.
brazen2 wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
I am reading and interpreting the data correctly. I'm not disputing the data at all.
I don't think I've said much about hospitalizations, but I'm glad we seem to have sufficient resources. It's not something I'm particularly worried about right now.
It's not a resource issue.
It's likely a good indicator of future COVID-19 related deaths. At least a 50% decrease from peak COVID hospitalizations is very good news. If these start to increase, deaths will likely increase as well.
Test, trace, and isolate. We'll get through this.
I'm not that interested in hospitalization rates in Georgia as long as the hospitals are not overrun. It's much harder to interpret the data for hospitalization because we don't know as much about the patients (date of onset of symptoms, etc.) Also, I read that Georgia only counts you as a COVID hospital patient if you first test positive while in the hospital. I may be misremembering that or they may have fixed it though.
Deaths will become interesting in the next couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see if there is a spike in deaths now that we are about three weeks from the spike in new cases.
brazen2 wrote:
Test, trace, and isolate. We'll get through this.
Yes, we will get through this one way or the other. But test, trace, and isolate should not be our only tools. Quarantine saves the most lives, but we have abandoned that.
The way we have chosen to get through this is with lots of death and civil unrest. COVID-19 has had a huge role in sparking the protests. George Floyd lost his job because of the pandemic. COVID has hit people of color harder than other groups. If George was isolating at home with support from the government he would still be alive today.
When people are desperate they are more likely to take to the streets. Now of course I support the marches and I do think that a lot of good will come of it. But there is no doubt that the poor handling of COVID has contributed to the reason that people feel the need to protest.
And now because of the protests, even more will be infected. Our government needs to care enough to quarantine and support its citizens instead of forcing them back to work under dangerous conditions.
Let's face it. Brian Kemp opened Georgia because he didn't want to pay unemployment benefits to lower class workers. And now look what he and other hard-hearted politicians have wrought.
We will get through this indeed. At least the ones who are still alive will.
Fat hurts wrote:
Deaths will become interesting in the next couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see if there is a spike in deaths now that we are about three weeks from the spike in new cases.
I have been hearing this shite since late February
Giles Corey wrote:I have been hearing this shite since late February
[blah blah blah] fingers in ears, hands over eyes [blah blah blah]
People are dying folks. Except for the ones GC can't see die right in front of his eyes of course. Those people aren't really dying. If a person dies in a forest, and GC isn;t there to see it happen, did that person ever really die? A question for the philosophers, I suppose...
Facking idiots around here.
6/7 data
More of the same - quick improvement in the US but slow degradation globally.
The 7 day average of daily deaths in the US has been falling quickly. Data points like just 41 deaths in NY State have brought the numbers down quickly. 5 days ago the 7 day average in the US was 1,050 and now it is 843.
Globally is different - every day the 7 day average rises. Again it hit a new cyclical high.
Still well below the mid April all time highs though.
Now: 4,362
April 18: 6,658
In the rankings the US passed Ireland in the wrong direction and is now 11th worst nation, per capita. We should soon pass the Netherlands and Sint Marten and move into 9th worst. But we probably won't pass any more nations.
No change in the rankings of the states.
Next few weeks should be interesting. We'll see if Memorial Day opening and BLM protests result in deaths. There are spikes in cases in FL and maybe AZ, but who knows how to think about those or if they will result in increased deaths.
I suspect Vegas is a major problem - they are doing everything wrong there. Indoor spaces, unhealthy people, near LA county, sending virus out around the nation. I'm not so worried about BLM marches. Outside.
agip wrote:
6/7 data
More of the same - quick improvement in the US but slow degradation globally.
The 7 day average of daily deaths in the US has been falling quickly. Data points like just 41 deaths in NY State have brought the numbers down quickly. 5 days ago the 7 day average in the US was 1,050 and now it is 843.
Globally is different - every day the 7 day average rises. Again it hit a new cyclical high.
Still well below the mid April all time highs though.
Now: 4,362
April 18: 6,658
In the rankings the US passed Ireland in the wrong direction and is now 11th worst nation, per capita. We should soon pass the Netherlands and Sint Marten and move into 9th worst. But we probably won't pass any more nations.
No change in the rankings of the states.
Next few weeks should be interesting. We'll see if Memorial Day opening and BLM protests result in deaths. There are spikes in cases in FL and maybe AZ, but who knows how to think about those or if they will result in increased deaths.
I suspect Vegas is a major problem - they are doing everything wrong there. Indoor spaces, unhealthy people, near LA county, sending virus out around the nation. I'm not so worried about BLM marches. Outside.
I'd suspect we'll see a spike resulting from Memorial Day and some of the mass gathering protests.
In the protests I've participated in everyone was social distancing and all wore masks. Obviously, that's not the case everywhere when you watch the news. Those types get the headlines, but there are only a few of them.
Fat hurts wrote:
brazen2 wrote:
Test, trace, and isolate. We'll get through this.
The way we have chosen to get through this is with lots of death and civil unrest. COVID-19 has had a huge role in sparking the protests. George Floyd lost his job because of the pandemic. COVID has hit people of color harder than other groups. If George was isolating at home with support from the government he would still be alive today.
When people are desperate they are more likely to take to the streets. Now of course I support the marches and I do think that a lot of good will come of it. But there is no doubt that the poor handling of COVID has contributed to the reason that people feel the need to protest.
And now because of the protests, even more will be infected. Our government needs to care enough to quarantine and support its citizens instead of forcing them back to work under dangerous conditions.
Let's face it. Brian Kemp opened Georgia because he didn't want to pay unemployment benefits to lower class workers. And now look what he and other hard-hearted politicians have wrought.
We will get through this indeed. At least the ones who are still alive will.
Now that's quite a stretch! Where to start???
1) "COVID-19 has had a huge role in sparking the protests. "
COVID-19 did not spark the current protests, The brutal killing of George Floyd and the perception of unjust treatment of African-Americans by police in this country did. I've never heard anyone at the protests shout "I can't breathe because of COVID-19." Now you could say that the lockdowns imposed because of COVID-19 caused several protests for different reasons.
2. "If George was isolating at home with support from the government he would still be alive today."
Come on now. You've got to be better than this. We could suppose all sorts of unfounded things like if he was white he wouldn't be dead. He tested positive for COVID-19 on 4/3 - 52 days before his death. How long does one need to isolate after testing positive?
3. "But there is no doubt that the poor handling of COVID has contributed to the reason that people feel the need to protest."
If you think people are protesting police brutality toward African-Americans because of the poor handling of COVID-19 , you are a lost cause. I can't help you. Now some people have protested the lockdowns because of COVID-19.
4. "Our government needs to care enough to quarantine and support its citizens instead of forcing them back to work under dangerous conditions."
Really, the government is forcing its citizens back to work under dangerous conditions? By force of the government? Is this local, state, or federal government that is forcing people to work?
5. "Let's face it. Brian Kemp opened Georgia because he didn't want to pay unemployment benefits to lower class workers."
I'm no Kemp fan for sure, but I'd like to see some actual hard evidence of this and not just speculation. There have been some positive provisions put into place. People can file for unemployment with GDOL if they were not laid off and decided to stay home from fear of COVID-19. Contract workers can now qualify for federal unemployment where they couldn't before. Georgians can now earn up to $300 a week and still keep unemployment benefits.
I get it. You are a glass half full type of guy - maybe be even empty glass guy.
Only 8 deaths in the last 3 days. You've got to be encouraged by that, right?
I know you want Georgia to have a prolonged, hard lockdown. It's not going to happen. You've got to deal the hand your dealt. Social distance, wear a mask, get yourself tested.
brazen2 wrote:
Only 8 deaths in the last 3 days. You've got to be encouraged by that, right?
I would be really encouraged if that were true.
Are you purposely looking at the wrong numbers? The 8 deaths are from incomplete data on the graph. You should know that by now. Or are you just a lying troll?
In raw terms, here are the death numbers Georgia reported for the last 3 days:
June 5th: 27
June 6th: -14
June 7th: 20
Even with the bogus -14, it's far more than 8.
brazen2 wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
1) "COVID-19 has had a huge role in sparking the protests. "
COVID-19 did not spark the current protests, The brutal killing of George Floyd and the perception of unjust treatment of African-Americans by police in this country did. I've never heard anyone at the protests shout "I can't breathe because of COVID-19." Now you could say that the lockdowns imposed because of COVID-19 caused several protests for different reasons.
I didn't say it sparked the protests. I said it had a huge role. And it did.
For years we have witnessed videos of black men being beaten and murdered by police. Why is it that this time whites have finally joined in? Why are these protests so much larger?
The answer is COVID-19. People don't protest when they think things are going well. If we had a great economy with full employment, most people would shrug it off like always.
Fat hurts wrote:
brazen2 wrote:
Only 8 deaths in the last 3 days. You've got to be encouraged by that, right?
I would be really encouraged if that were true.
Are you purposely looking at the wrong numbers? The 8 deaths are from incomplete data on the graph. You should know that by now. Or are you just a lying troll?
In raw terms, here are the death numbers Georgia reported for the last 3 days:
June 5th: 27
June 6th: -14
June 7th: 20
Even with the bogus -14, it's far more than 8.
Sigh.
Data from Georgia Situation Report COVID-19. These are published daily by GADPH at the end of the day.
brazen2 wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
4. "Our government needs to care enough to quarantine and support its citizens instead of forcing them back to work under dangerous conditions."
Really, the government is forcing its citizens back to work under dangerous conditions? By force of the government? Is this local, state, or federal government that is forcing people to work?
Yes, absolutely. Someone called back to work is forced to do so or go hungry because they can no longer collect unemployment.
Many of these workers have gone back to non-essential jobs with a high risk of infection. If we had a better government they would be allowed to stay home with full pay instead of spreading the virus.
brazen2 wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
I would be really encouraged if that were true.
Are you purposely looking at the wrong numbers? The 8 deaths are from incomplete data on the graph. You should know that by now. Or are you just a lying troll?
In raw terms, here are the death numbers Georgia reported for the last 3 days:
June 5th: 27
June 6th: -14
June 7th: 20
Even with the bogus -14, it's far more than 8.
Sigh.
Data from Georgia Situation Report COVID-19. These are published daily by GADPH at the end of the day.
And you are misrepresenting that data.
agip wrote:
6/7 data
More of the same - quick improvement in the US but slow degradation globally.
The 7 day average of daily deaths in the US has been falling quickly. Data points like just 41 deaths in NY State have brought the numbers down quickly. 5 days ago the 7 day average in the US was 1,050 and now it is 843.
Globally is different - every day the 7 day average rises. Again it hit a new cyclical high.
Still well below the mid April all time highs though.
Now: 4,362
April 18: 6,658
In the rankings the US passed Ireland in the wrong direction and is now 11th worst nation, per capita. We should soon pass the Netherlands and Sint Marten and move into 9th worst. But we probably won't pass any more nations.
No change in the rankings of the states.
Next few weeks should be interesting. We'll see if Memorial Day opening and BLM protests result in deaths. There are spikes in cases in FL and maybe AZ, but who knows how to think about those or if they will result in increased deaths.
I suspect Vegas is a major problem - they are doing everything wrong there. Indoor spaces, unhealthy people, near LA county, sending virus out around the nation. I'm not so worried about BLM marches. Outside.
Arizona is clearly spiking and possibly the worst example in the US of a post memorial day spike. Texas is also spiking. A good portion of the increased cases in Texas are from rural areas where there have been big outbreaks at meat packing plants, prisons and ICE detention centers. AR, and NC are also showing signs of spiking. This is very concerning given that school is out, most large gatherings have been cancelled and many people are still opting to stay home. I am in Texas and there are still a number of restaurants that are still closed in my area and a lot of people are still working from home. If the virus can progress this much with a fair amount of social distancing practices in place, the prognosis for further opening is not good. And Texas is letting bars open to 50% capacity despite the rising numbers.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-statesFat hurts wrote:
brazen2 wrote:
COVID-19 did not spark the current protests, The brutal killing of George Floyd and the perception of unjust treatment of African-Americans by police in this country did. I've never heard anyone at the protests shout "I can't breathe because of COVID-19." Now you could say that the lockdowns imposed because of COVID-19 caused several protests for different reasons.
I didn't say it sparked the protests. I said it had a huge role. And it did.
For years we have witnessed videos of black men being beaten and murdered by police. Why is it that this time whites have finally joined in? Why are these protests so much larger?
The answer is COVID-19. People don't protest when they think things are going well. If we had a great economy with full employment, most people would shrug it off like always.
"Why is it that this time whites have finally joined in?"
Ummm. This is far from the first time whites have "joined in." Not sure where this is coming from. Are you upset whites are "joining in" the protests?
"People don't protest when they think things are going well. "
Wow. Such critical thinking. LOL
"If we had a great economy with full employment, most people would shrug it off like always."
What was the economy and unemployment rate in late 2014? Spring 1992? Spring 1968? Summer 1965?
Fat hurts wrote:
brazen2 wrote:
Really, the government is forcing its citizens back to work under dangerous conditions? By force of the government? Is this local, state, or federal government that is forcing people to work?
Yes, absolutely. Someone called back to work is forced to do so or go hungry because they can no longer collect unemployment.
As I said before , according to GDOL, they can still file for unemployment benefits even if they were not laid off, but were not comfortable going back to work.
brazen2 wrote:
5. "Let's face it. Brian Kemp opened Georgia because he didn't want to pay unemployment benefits to lower class workers."
I'm no Kemp fan for sure, but I'd like to see some actual hard evidence of this and not just speculation. [/quote]
Yes, it's speculation. He would never admit that out loud.
This is the man who is letting thousands of Georgians die because he refuses to expand Medicaid. Then he tells them they have to go back to work and risk their lives or go hungry. He is no friend of the working poor.