NE DIV 3 XC 2007

Number of rankings in top 32 by region:

Great Lakes: 5

Atlantic: 5

Central: 4

Mideast: 4

Midwest: 6

New England: 4.5

South/Southeast: 1.5

West: 2

.5's since Bowdoin and Emory are tied for #32.

If you go only by these numbers, it looks like the #6 team in the Midwest gets screwed, the #2 team in the south gets lucky, and New England squeaks by with 5 spots.

Of course, the committee is by no means bound to put these numbers in as the number of teams each region get, but it gives a decent guideline for what regions are viewed as stronger or weaker.

It's also worth noting that if a weak team gets the #5 spot, or beats a stronger team to get the #4 spot, it decreases the chances that the region will get 5.

Natts wrote "... it looks like the #6 team in the Midwest gets screwed, the #2 team in the south gets lucky ..."

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There is really no arguement here. It does not hold water.

Last year at nationals the midwest went

9th Oshkosh

11th Lacrosse

13th North Central

25th Wash U

26th Platteville

The South went

21st Rhodes

28th Centre

Since the South's top 2 teams are on equal footing as the midwest's #4 and #5 teams, it's hard to make your argument.

Frankly, I thought the midwest wasn't as strong as they were billed last year with only 1 team finishing in the top 10, and no team in the top 8. They really smelled things up after bragging about how good they are.

For the sake of argument, last year, the Atlantic had 3 teams in the top 10, mideast 2, central 2, new England 1, Midwest 1, and Great Lakes 1.

I would suggest that those getting screwed this year are likely the #5 teams from the central and mideast. Those regions likely are tougher to get out of as they should have 2 national level teams grabbing the auto spots.

One thing to remember about the polls is that they are as political as anything. Each region has a rep selling other regional reps their teams. And we all know that you can not compare cross country races and times like you can track. So what little cross examination between regions that can be done has its flaws.

Just look at national results from last year and then compare it to the poll prior. Did anyone have Allegheny as #3 and St. Johns as #5. No. That is why there is a national race.

There is no way that any region can say that their #6 team is getting screwed when already we have #5 teams elsewhere being screwed as it is.

The arguement for a region sending 6 teams should die as it does not hold water. It is a weak arguement.

And, thank God that the committee does not look at the polls. Possibly they understand how political and how wrong they often are.

This is not meant to be an attack of the author or of the midwest. But, you need to understand that there are other regions out there that are alive and well.

Bump

Regionals are 3 days away. Time for some final predictions:

Men:

1. Williams

2. Amherst

3. MIT

4. Bowdoin

5. Trinity

6. USM

Women:

1. Amherst

Everyone Else

Rather than make rankings, I'd like to think in terms of odds each team has for either the win or for top 5

My take on the men's side:

For the win:

Williams 60 percent chance

MIT 20

Amherst 15

Bowdoin 5

For top 5:

Williams 95 chance

Amherst 80

MIT 80

Bowdoin 80

Trinity 50

Tufts 40

USM 35

Keene 30

Other: 10

I don't know enough about the women to predict beyond:

1. Amherst

i'm more inetersted in the individual race, honestly. does that kid from MIT have a chance? has Kosgey fallen from grace? this amherst freshman seems like a tough kid. it should be a barn burner with that many kids in contention on such a flat course. winner under 24:40?

Provided no hurricane, most definitely

I think the MIT guy(s) and all the frosh in the race are going to have a definite psychological advantage, having not been scarred by this course in the past. The real winners here will be the bacterium of the Connecticut shoreline.

USM second? That is bold. Just because there top 2 are studs doesn't mean they'll do well. I'll bet their 4 & 5 guys come in 70-100th place, which kind will kind of hurt the team score. Keene 3rd? What's the basis? They had a good race at Saratoga, but against all of the other teams on this list they have not fared well. And why will MIT bomb? Because they have in the past? Every season is different. I think they're too good of a team this year. My top 5:

1. Williams - Should win handily.

2. MIT - Only NE team to have beaten Williams this year, and I don't care if the Williams website said it was a tempo. They got smoked at home. Also, MIT did sick nasty Opens without Ruzevick.

3. Amherst - Another team with a bad history at Regionals. But hey, every season is different. They have the depth and talent to do big things.

4. Bowdoin - Another team with a strong top 3. If there 4, 5 guys run solid races, then they should be fine.

5. USM - I know I sh*tted on them earlier in the post, but I don't see Trinity holding things together, and they just beat up on Keene.

Individually, here's my stab at the top 10:

1. Curtis

2. Kosgey

3. Ruzevick

4. Drake

5. Moorhead

6. Yochum

7. Butcher

8. Nick

9. Levin

10. Watson

Get money.

I think the win is going to Williams, they are too deep not to win it. The rest of the field should be very closed behind. There are going to be half a dozen teams that could be 2-4.

1.Williams- depth

2.USM- With their front two scoring less than 7 pts between them it will be hard to mess it up.

3.MIT/Keene/Amherst- All these teams have their own strengths, should be interesting. I see Keene being anywhere from 2-10 depending on what team shows up, the other teams are more consistent.

As far as individuals the Wheeler twins should be up front. Moorehead should be up front. Insert rest of field here.

USM - best case scenario 1,5,20,50,55

More likely - 1-5,5-10,20-30,75-100,75-100

either way, they are not getting second...the best case, would put them in the top 5 thought. However, there is no way I think their 4,5 will be in the 50-60 range. if they both grab 75 points or more, which even that might be generous you are looking at a team score just under 200 which last year was about 6th place.

Any results yet??

Tufts men got 3rd

Amherst guys won with like 117, Williams second by a point, Tufts like 140 something, Trin Trin 150 something

Who would have thought? Amherst steps up and Williams does not at a District Meet. So different from years past. For 2007 Amherst is the XC capital of New England. Next week Amherst will be the XC capital of the nation.

amHerst stepping up is indeed unusual this late in the season. Williams not killing themselves out there is pretty much standard practice.

I seem to recall one N. Holtschulte, top NE individual at nationals in '03, '04, and '05 (champ) but never won the regionals race. Similar philosophy for the team: poor regionals - great nationals results (in general) these past five years.

Still, congrats to Amherst. Good luck at the big show!

Congrats to both their men and women, but before crowning Amherst the New England cross country capital, maybe we wait and see what happens at the race that matters?

Congrats to Bates for being the 6th nescac school.....way to improve, good job