way too early GIRLS 2025 XC CIF HS predictions

At the beginning of the season, I would have agreed with your take that the El Toro girls would have a chance at NXN, but it just hasn't come together for them. Based on how the season has gone, they have almost no chance of being one of the top 2 teams at State. It's a three-horse race between J Serra, Buchanan, and Mira Costa. And only the two auto qualifiers will make it to NXN; no chance for an at-large bid to California girls.

Who does everyone think the individual qualifiers will be?

Why do you see no at-larges to CA for NXN?

Besides J Serra and Buchanan, there aren't any teams that have developed much of a national resume. The only chance of CA getting an at-large berth is if Mira Costa beats Buchanan at States; then Buchanan would have a good chance of scoring an at-large. (Unfortunately, I don't see anyone beating J Serra as much, as I would like to see the cheaters, sorry "recruiters," get their comeuppance.)

I guess Santiago being ranked 16th in the country by Milesplit and 21st by Dyestat doesn't do anything for you? What about Mira Costa ranked 29th? You don't think either of them finishing 3rd in the merge would get them an At-Large for NXN?

Aelo Curtis

Chiara Dailey

Summer Wilson

Braelyn Combe

Amaya Bharadwaj

I'm assuming that Brooks NIL girl Jaelyn Williams will be running the Brooks West Regional race and skipping NXN even if she finishes top 5 at state.

Santiago does not have the horses that Mira Costa has. Mira Costa can't match Combe, of course, but they essentially have five equal to Santiago's #2-3. Mark my words, Santiago's score will be well off of Mira Costa's at CIF-SS and at States. Milesplit and Dyestat are flat out wrong to have Santiago ranked that high. If you look at Rich's California rankings (which come from someone who is actually familiar with the team results here), you'll see that Mira Costa is ranked ahead of Santiago.

As for NXN at-larges, the Southwest is guaranteed to get two. That leaves only two more to divide amongst the whole country. I think Mira Costa will finish 3rd in the State merge and could be considered for an at-large but ultimately won't make the cut. Santiago will finish no higher than 5th in the merge and won't be considered at all.

The CA merge will be interesting this year. After the top 2 it's pretty challenging to figure out. Rich's rankings don't really help with that since they are broken up by division. That is unless you go back to his last NXN rankings a month ago.

Agreed. Mira Costa, Santiago, Trabuco, Santa Margarita, El Toro, and St. Francis could all be pretty close.

These are probably the consensus favorites. I have Bayles and Hopkins challenging as well.

The last 3 you mentioned are all D3 so that's probably the most up in the air competitive division there is right now. I think the other divisions are a bit more predictable.

Also Whitney, they haven't built anything as far as a resume this year but they should be up there in the merge.

I'd put Alyssa Gutierrez from St Francis SJS on that list. She's a frosh but check out her times vs the girls listed. (Last two races have been on hilly courses.)

That is why I say Dark Horse pick. Also there is no guarantee that California won't have an at-large selection, the selection committee has made many surprising selections in the past.

And Buchanan dominates the Division 1 race

Based on these results, I'm predicting that Mira Costa will win D1 at States and earn an NXN auto bid. Buchanan looks sort of a mess right now. But I do think their finish at NXN last year and their overall body of work this year will earn them an at-large bid. I didn't expect them to look so vulnerable going into States, but the bright side is that if they miss out on an auto bid, it will pave the way for CA to have 3 teams at NXN.

A lot of teams are using the “we’ll have our best race of the season and all PR” strategy going into State.