MN Cross Country Predictions 2022

Same here, was fun to see that course again. I last ran it 25 years ago!

I was in there but JV race in middle school at that point. One of the best races I can remember was a b9 conference track meet where Winona ran Garrett in the 800m (I assume so they could use him in more than 2 events) and it set up a matchup between him and Hans Storvick from Mankato West who was a state champion in 800m. I'm don't remember who won but I know it was fast and it came right down to the tape.

That should leave a dent in the Tonka lineup, but with Sean Fries being a 16:12 guy and running 10:00 in what likely was a workout oriented race 2 mile, James Thomas as a 16:23 and 10:03 finisher in the same race, and also Jackson Downin who is a 16:45 guy and ran 9:57 at that race, they should still contend. That being said, Conference team predictions:

1. Wayzata- Looking like possibly the best team in the state this year, too hot to count out of this.
2. Minnetonka- Could contend with Wayzata as they did last year shocking a lot of people and losing by only 5 points, on a good day. No R. fries though.

3. Eden Prarie- 2nd deepest team in the state other than Minnetonka, but their stick isn’t low enough to compete for the win.

4. Edina- If they can actually run their entire varsity team as one, they could shock some people with how well they do with a good 1-2 punch of Haerter and Defor.

5. Hopkins- Most people’s 4th place pick, 1-3 is strong, but 2-3 did much worse at the 2 mile than I expected.

6. Buffalo- Solid 1, just cannot contend with any of the teams above. Macheel and Wistrom could contend for all conference.

7. STMA- #1(Salas), is surprisingly good compared to the rest of the team, but won’t contend at all.

Defor isn’t lined up here.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1GPdTxiHRPIeWZW2OWIvxnSHhur4Zj-X510NPKK9KLIE/htmlview#gid=0
But even with Defor missing, Edina should be able to beat Hopkins. This is exactly what happened at Griak first and foremost (although Hopkins’ 4-5 gap seems to be closing now).
Also, Edina’s freshman Ohe emerged as their second man last race. At conference last year he was their 7th runner (third nonsenior) with all these 2022 grads on the team with the exception of Richter who didn’t race. Ohe should help this team beat Hopkins.

But I agree that Minnetonka should get second without R Fries. They have enough depth to make up for his absence. None of the teams in this conference seem comparable to Wayzata or Minnetonka.

Princeton Last Chance 2022 - Complete Results (milesplit.com)

Here's a good race yesterday with AA ranked Boys Individuals;

(x) = current ranking

1 (3) Sal Wirth 15:53

2 (6) Owen Layton 15:54

3 (10) Noah Mahoney 16:01

4 (7) Kade Layton 16:02

5 (2) Cameron Stocke 16:28

13 (10 Class A) Mark Swanson 17:33

Teams:

1 (1) Big Lake 57

2 (9) Monticello 66

3 (6) Delano 91

4 (10) Becker 113

Emmett Gerres has been on fire running 15:39 to beat #1 in Class A Henry Karelitz by 27 seconds on a tough course in Jordan yesterday.

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Jordan Invitational 2022 - Complete Results

MileSplits official Complete Results formatted results for the 2022 Jordan Invitational, hosted by Jordan High School in Jordan MN.

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Adrian Ellsworth Dragon Invite 2022 - Complete Results

MileSplits official Complete Results formatted results for the 2022 Adrian Ellsworth Dragon Invite, hosted by Adrian High School in Adrian MN.

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Worthington boys looking less and less impressive.... Overgaauw girls with the easy win again

Worthington was missing their 4th guy…not sure how much he would have helped the team here or will help the team go to state. Their 3rd guy seemed to have an underwhelming performance. As I said they do have a group of underclassmen to help the team in the future.

In the other meet, Stocke finished surprisingly low. Also Seems like the gap between Monticello and Becker is getting bigger.

Cotter wins the boys meet.
Lead by a junior who’s been on this varsity team since 7th grade, and their top 5 also has 2 freshmen, a 7th grader and 8th grader. Could make a trip to state for the first time in a long time.
Girls second.

results.wayzatatiming.com

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Rochester Mayo boys win.

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AA boys and teams is getting really interesting. Here's what I have for AA Boys individual;

1.Emmett Gerres 12 Belle Plain
2.Salvador Wirth 10 Annadale
3.Owen Layton 11 Big Lake
4.Sulley Anez 10 Willmar
5.Charlie Power-Theisen 12 St. Paul Como Park
6.Noah Mahoney 12 Monticello
7.Kade Layton 12 Big Lake
8.Harris Gulbransen 12 Breck
9.Isaiah Anderson 11 Mankato East
10.Cameron Stocke 12 Rock Ridge
11.Alden Keller 12 Breck
12.Soren Bortnem 12 Dassel-Cokato

I don't think Alden Keller has enough time to win state again, he very well could, but I think he'll be top 4. Soren Bortnem hasn't raced since the 27th of September where he only lost to Wirth by 3 seconds. Section 6AA will produce some very fast times this year at the Litchfield golf course, I predict the winner will be around 15:29 if the weather is good.

South suburban predictions:
1. Lakeville North. Beat Rosemount head to head at Ev Berg. Got a strong #1 in Casey. Their 4/5 need to be on if they want to win this year.

2. Rosemount. Lost to North at Ev Berg. But they seem to be getting closer to them. They don’t have a low stick like North does. So their top 5 need to improve collectively to beat North.

3. Lakeville South. Had some high finishes in every race except Griak. Solid group of 7 guys that should help them get to state this year. Also a young team with only 2 seniors that could challenge for the title next year after Rosemount and North lose a lot of guys.

4. Shakopee. Has a solid group of 4 guys. Having a 5th man would have been nice but they are in a tough section so they won’t go to state anyways. They lost to Farmington but Froats was only their #4 when these teams raced each other. Froats was their #1 the next race.

1.Emmett Gerres 12 Belle Plain
2.Sulley Anez 10 Willmar
3.Salvador Wirth 10 Annadale
4.Owen Layton 11 Big Lake
5.Noah Mahoney 12 Monticello
6.Kade Layton 12 Big Lake
7.Harris Gulbransen 12 Breck
8.Charlie Power-Theisen 12 St. Paul Como Park
9.Isaiah Anderson 11 Mankato East
10.Cameron Stocke 12 Rock Ridge
11.Alden Keller 12 Breck
12.Soren Bortnem 12 Dassel-Cokato

Moved Charlie down a few spots and moved up Sulley Anez. Sully beat Noah Mahoney by 27 seconds this month at Alexandria.

Should rock ridge be ranked 2nd? they finished 8th at this meet...are they missing guys?

Rock ridge was missing the Kendall brothers. Also appears that 2 of their varsity guys (matschiner and aune) might have been tempoing (based on the times and how close they were to the JV guys).
Based on Griak results I thought that Rock ridge would have a shot to win state, but right now this isn’t looking likely anymore.
https://mn.milesplit.com/meets/497725-princeton-last-chance-2022/teams/13436#.Y0a8RCVOkWM
At this point I have Mankato East winning conference, sections, and AA state all for the first time ever, and next year I have them repeating all of this. They have 1 senior scoring (the only one on varsity) and have a big 5-6 gap, but with how much talent they have outside of the top 5, East should close that 4-5 gap next year.

Agreed, Mankato East is starting to emerge as the clear favorite. Belle Plain on the rise too, Rock Ridge and Worthington really slipping. Worthington looks to be on the outside looking in. Mankato East invite today, not sure who is going, should tell us more about them.

East invite results will be in this link
https://results.wayzatatiming.com/meets/18600/teams
Jefferson and Marshall are the only “strong” teams I see.
Owatonna is ok but it’s a rebuilding year for them.

Minneapolis conference will also be held today. Should give us a better idea on which team is looking to get the second spot in section 6aaa behind Wayzata

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Class AAA rankings for 2023

1. Wayzata-Only losing one of their top 7 next year, could actually challenge for nationals as well.

2. Minnetonka-I think these two teams stand out amongst all others, way too deep to count if of it.

3. Jefferson-Another very young and deep squad should finish very highly.

4. Eden Prarie-Loses their 1 and 2, but their team is deep enough to make up for it.

5. Moundsview-Keeps a lot of returners, but loses McArthur, shouldn’t make that huge of a difference,

6. Lakeville South-The other Lakeville team will take over the section next year, not losing many.

7. Southwest-Get Sam ascot back, but will definitely need a #5 as their 5 and 6 leave.

8. Rosemount-losing a lot of their top guys won’t contend too much

9. Edina-Returning most, young team, should be good.

10. Stillwater-Riniker is back, Kilibarda leaves, pretty good team other than that.

Way too early boys AAA Predictions for 2023:
1- Wayzata - this team has only been getting stronger the last couple of years. Only losing Hussein. Very difficult to beat this team. Looking to be deep. Should be in contention at NXN with a senior-heavy squad but needs to develop a low stick.
2- Minnetonka - deepest squad in state this year. Losing Gilles/Westerlund, but they have enough depth to make up for this. Both Fries brothers need to be healthy to challenge Wayzata.
3- Mounds View - losing McArthur/Lelinga but they do have enough depth to make up for that. Should be 7-deep next year and senior heavy. They are a solid program, have a good coach and are looking to bounce back after a mediocre season (for them). Looking to have a new low stick in Kalmes.
4- Minneapolis Southwest - good team this year already and returns 4 of their top 5, but needs to find a fifth man. Has a low stick in Sam Scott (projected state champ and NXN qualifier). If they find a 5th they should contend for a state title and an NXN berth.
5- Bloomington Jefferson. Young and improving team that should start contending for state titles and NXN berths in a couple of years. But they do lose Lueth, so to podium at state, they need to develop a new low stick, and like Southwest, they will need to find a 5th man.
6- Edina. Good program and coach. This year is a young, rebuilding year for them, and without Defor, they have a solid 1-3 in Haerter, Ohe, and Danielson, all of whom are returning for 2023, and even 2024 which will help them challenge for the state title in 2024. They also return some nice depth behind the trio.
7- Eden Prairie. Loses 4 varsity seniors but still has enough depth to make up for the losses. Looking to challenge Edina for a state berth.
8- Lakeville South. Very strong, reloading team that now only has 2 seniors and should challenge for a conference and section title after a bunch of Rosemount and North guys graduate.
9- East Ridge. Solid program that always reloads. Not a single person is graduating this year. Also has a low stick in Schultz. Looking to qualify for state after seeing Rosemount graduate a lot of people.
10- White Bear Lake. Great, well-coached program. Not looking to go to state this year unless they close the 4-5 gap, but this is a young, rebuilding year for them. They return a solid top 3 in Williams (who could contend for a state podium spot), Larson and kolstad. After not making state this year, next year they will come back with a chip on their shoulder and qualify. They will need to find a 4/5 for next year though.