Here is Georgia (the US state, not the country, in case that's confusing to anybody):
Anyone who looks at those two trends, for daily cases and fatalities per million (7-day smoothed), and imagines things are better in Georgia, is smoking dope.
Here is Georgia (the US state, not the country, in case that's confusing to anybody):
Anyone who looks at those two trends, for daily cases and fatalities per million (7-day smoothed), and imagines things are better in Georgia, is smoking dope.
One more from me. I classified the US states according to their vote in the 2016 presidential election, with purple for states with < 5% difference between Republican and Democrat vote. Here are daily cases per million:
Here is the same plot for fatalities:
The Democrat curves, dominated by NJ and NY, are both declining sharply. Purple states have relatively constant growth in new cases and gradual decline in fatalities. Republican states have had increasing new cases for the past two months, with recent sharp acceleration, and the slowest (by far) decline in new fatalities.
I didn't know what to expect when I started this, but found it very interesting.
Fat hurts wrote:
brazen2 wrote:
We "saw" a spike in cases after the lockdown - as was expected. Cases are now trending down.
More importantly, deaths are way down and hospitalizations are down since opening 44 days ago.
And your positivity rate is down.
It's far too early to say that cases are trending down again. They certainly aren't down much from their new high, if at all. Also note that June 1st is higher than May 24th. That's worrisome because numbers on the right side of the graph tend to go up over time. It suggests that the slight downward trend of late may could starting going back up for early June.
We don't know if the positivity rate is up or down. We only have 7 days of data. But I agree that it's probably down from, say, a month ago. We do have more testing now, which we expect would make it go down.
On page 9 of this thread, you stated there was "clearly" a second spike. That was after 2 days of the 7 day average of cases moving up. And indeed in the graph of incomplete cases did show an upward trend.
You did the same thing on page 11. An "exponential growth in cases" with a graph showing the 7 day moving average increasing for seven days.
The current GADPH graph shows a decline in cases for 5 days and with the data out there the 6th day is pretty certain. Now you are saying that its too early to tell if the cases are trending down again???
I have to say that you are all over the place on this.
Post all the charts you like, daily COVID deaths in GA are down dramatically.
You believed the hype.
Accept you were fooled and move on
interested reader wrote:
Here is Georgia (the US state, not the country, in case that's confusing to anybody):
https://ibb.co/TmXkRWCAnyone who looks at those two trends, for daily cases and fatalities per million (7-day smoothed), and imagines things are better in Georgia, is smoking dope.
I'm a realist.
The exponential growth in cases and deaths has been arrested and the trend is now downward. Deaths per day are 50% off the high.
Georgia certainly is not out of the woods by any means. "Better"? Absolutely.
Please don't politicize this. There is not place for it here.
You can go to the Trump thread to spout your political thoughts.
Hey "interested reader" - just wanted to let you know that I find your posts to be informative and interesting. I appreciate them.
brazen2 wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
It's far too early to say that cases are trending down again. They certainly aren't down much from their new high, if at all. Also note that June 1st is higher than May 24th. That's worrisome because numbers on the right side of the graph tend to go up over time. It suggests that the slight downward trend of late may could starting going back up for early June.
We don't know if the positivity rate is up or down. We only have 7 days of data. But I agree that it's probably down from, say, a month ago. We do have more testing now, which we expect would make it go down.
On page 9 of this thread, you stated there was "clearly" a second spike. That was after 2 days of the 7 day average of cases moving up. And indeed in the graph of incomplete cases did show an upward trend.
You did the same thing on page 11. An "exponential growth in cases" with a graph showing the 7 day moving average increasing for seven days.
The current GADPH graph shows a decline in cases for 5 days and with the data out there the 6th day is pretty certain. Now you are saying that its too early to tell if the cases are trending down again???
I have to say that you are all over the place on this.
You have to know how to read the graph. The data on the right side tends to go up and not down. So if you see an upward trend already occurring then it's not too early to call it. But if you see a downward trend you have to wait.
brazen2 wrote:
Please don't politicize this. There is not place for it here.
You can go to the Trump thread to spout your political thoughts.
You don’t have to be a Trump supporter to see how this played out around the country. After these protests the left and their full hypocrisy is on full display. People in the middle who are Independent (like myself) are not fooled by any of this and it will show in November.
Fat hurts wrote:
brazen2 wrote:
On page 9 of this thread, you stated there was "clearly" a second spike. That was after 2 days of the 7 day average of cases moving up. And indeed in the graph of incomplete cases did show an upward trend.
You did the same thing on page 11. An "exponential growth in cases" with a graph showing the 7 day moving average increasing for seven days.
The current GADPH graph shows a decline in cases for 5 days and with the data out there the 6th day is pretty certain. Now you are saying that its too early to tell if the cases are trending down again???
I have to say that you are all over the place on this.
You have to know how to read the graph. The data on the right side tends to go up and not down. So if you see an upward trend already occurring then it's not too early to call it. But if you see a downward trend you have to wait.
We do see a short downward trend from May 19 to May 24. And it looks like it will probably go slightly lower. But it's not down by very much and as I mentioned, the longer term trend for the first week of June looks like it's headed back upward. Too early to call that one though.
brazen2 wrote:
On page 9 of this thread, you stated there was "clearly" a second spike. That was after 2 days of the 7 day average of cases moving up. And indeed in the graph of incomplete cases did show an upward trend.
On the day I posted that on page 9, we had 8 days of the 7 day average moving up. Not two days.
Here is the graph from that day I posted on page 9:
https://covidtracking.com/screenshots/GA/GA-20200526-183023.pngFat hurts wrote:
brazen2 wrote:
On page 9 of this thread, you stated there was "clearly" a second spike. That was after 2 days of the 7 day average of cases moving up. And indeed in the graph of incomplete cases did show an upward trend.
On the day I posted that on page 9, we had 8 days of the 7 day average moving up. Not two days.
Here is the graph from that day I posted on page 9:
https://covidtracking.com/screenshots/GA/GA-20200526-183023.png
Ya’ll know he’s a troll. Right?
brazen2 wrote:Please don't politicize this. There is not place for it here.
You can go to the Trump thread to spout your political thoughts.
Did I spout that graph or the commentary? I'm pretty sure I did not. If you think I did, it's possible you have a chip on your shoulder.
I'm not the one making this political in the US. I'm neither American nor living in North America. I am interested in how this has devolved into a bitter political battle (instead of a war against cv-19) in the US. It hasn't done that in most of the rest of the civilized world.
interested reader wrote:
brazen2 wrote:Please don't politicize this. There is not place for it here.
You can go to the Trump thread to spout your political thoughts.
Did I spout that graph or the commentary? I'm pretty sure I did not. If you think I did, it's possible you have a chip on your shoulder.
I'm not the one making this political in the US. I'm neither American nor living in North America. I am interested in how this has devolved into a bitter political battle (instead of a war against cv-19) in the US. It hasn't done that in most of the rest of the civilized world.
It's very sad, but everything is political in the age of Trump. Even public health.
Fat hurts wrote:
brazen2 wrote:
On page 9 of this thread, you stated there was "clearly" a second spike. That was after 2 days of the 7 day average of cases moving up. And indeed in the graph of incomplete cases did show an upward trend.
On the day I posted that on page 9, we had 8 days of the 7 day average moving up. Not two days.
Here is the graph from that day I posted on page 9:
https://covidtracking.com/screenshots/GA/GA-20200526-183023.png
2 days of "complete" data - no projected numbers.
Notice how the curve about a week out looks similar to what happened when we actually moved into the window.
interested reader wrote:
brazen2 wrote:Please don't politicize this. There is not place for it here.
You can go to the Trump thread to spout your political thoughts.
Did I spout that graph or the commentary? I'm pretty sure I did not. If you think I did, it's possible you have a chip on your shoulder.
I'm not the one making this political in the US. I'm neither American nor living in North America. I am interested in how this has devolved into a bitter political battle (instead of a war against cv-19) in the US. It hasn't done that in most of the rest of the civilized world.
Until now, the discussion has been apolitical.
Posting a graph with red/blue state data politicizes the discussion.
Take the political crap to the Trump thread.
brazen2 wrote:
May 1 was the first day Georgia reported the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations. It was 1500. That was the highest reported number, so it probably had a higher peak than that.
Today, Georgia is at 788 and dropping.
Fat Hurts - I'd like to hear you opinion on this. You seem to dispute case and death trends, as well as positivity rates. What about the rate of hospitalizations?
Fat hurts wrote:
brazen2 wrote:
On page 9 of this thread, you stated there was "clearly" a second spike. That was after 2 days of the 7 day average of cases moving up. And indeed in the graph of incomplete cases did show an upward trend.
You did the same thing on page 11. An "exponential growth in cases" with a graph showing the 7 day moving average increasing for seven days.
The current GADPH graph shows a decline in cases for 5 days and with the data out there the 6th day is pretty certain. Now you are saying that its too early to tell if the cases are trending down again???
I have to say that you are all over the place on this.
You have to know how to read the graph. The data on the right side tends to go up and not down. So if you see an upward trend already occurring then it's not too early to call it. But if you see a downward trend you have to wait.
The days shortly after the current window only change slightly. If you go back to the graphs you posted on pages 9 and 11 of this thread, you can see, surprisingly accurately, the trend for the next 7-8 days. A few cases get added back to flatten the drop a little, but you could see the peak and drop at least 7 days before it moved into the window.
There is an outlier for June 1st. It may be accurate or it may be a response in how people answer the medical questions when testing positive.
"When did you first start feeling symptoms?"
"About the beginning of the month."
"Okay. I'll code it as June 1st."
We'll have to see, but all indications as this point show a drop in the 7 day average for cases for at least the next week.
brazen2 wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
On the day I posted that on page 9, we had 8 days of the 7 day average moving up. Not two days.
Here is the graph from that day I posted on page 9:
https://covidtracking.com/screenshots/GA/GA-20200526-183023.png2 days of "complete" data - no projected numbers.
Notice how the curve about a week out looks similar to what happened when we actually moved into the window.
Like I said, you need to know how to read the graph. It's a little odd until you dig into it.
None of the data is complete. They even sometimes change the data outside the 14 day window. None of the numbers are projected. They all represent real cases.
However, the further you go to the left on the graph the more solid the data becomes and you expect fewer revisions.
Also, the data for a given day is never revised down to any significant degree, but it can go up quite a lot. So on the day I made my pronouncement it was clear that we were already seeing an exponential growth in cases. It wasn't a projection. It was a fact.
brazen2 wrote:
brazen2 wrote:
May 1 was the first day Georgia reported the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations. It was 1500. That was the highest reported number, so it probably had a higher peak than that.
Today, Georgia is at 788 and dropping.
Fat Hurts - I'd like to hear you opinion on this. You seem to dispute case and death trends, as well as positivity rates. What about the rate of hospitalizations?
I am reading and interpreting the data correctly. I'm not disputing the data at all.
I don't think I've said much about hospitalizations, but I'm glad we seem to have sufficient resources. It's not something I'm particularly worried about right now.
