MN Cross Country Predictions 2022

Looking back at Big Lake, could argue Mankato East #1, Belle Plain #2, and Big Lake #3. Belle Plain having the low stick could steal a state victory as well, we legit have 4 teams that could win on the right day.

I think somebody said Big Lake beat Mankato East a couple of weeks ago...hard to argue a head to head win

Very true, I knew there was a reason I had Big Lake #1. This is shaping up into a tight race for a state championship.

East missing number 2 runner at Hutchinson invite.

Looking at the sections, this year it’s looking to be the first time in a decade that the Edina girls team will likely not go to state this year. It’s crazy because they used to make NXN every year. If they do somehow make state, it will be because one of the girls from Minnetonka transferred there.

But, at postseason Edina girls team always seems to have a different result than at sections. But making NXN won’t be likely for them this year either. I have Wayzata and Olathe west making out of that

Speed ratings:
Edina - 106 - 106 - 92 - 87 - 84
Minnetonka - 118 - 113 - 97 - 94 - 88 - 88
Prior Lake (these are from applejack. They raced Victoria lions too but those SRs aren’t on Tully runners unfortunately. They beat Edina at Applejack anyways). 104-99-96-95-95-94-85.
These PL speed ratings are still better than Edina’s latest speed ratings. Minnetonka has better speed ratings than Edina. Not sure how accurate the STMA speed ratings are

Yeah and their top sophomore had an off race

East can definitely put 5 guys in front of Big Lake’s 4th

Just realized that East, Worthington and belle plain are in the same section. I think in that section it will go:

1. East

2. Belle Plain

3. Worthington

Worthington got a strong 1-3, but their 4 is too far back and their 5 is even farther back.

East and Belle plain both put 5 ahead of Worthington’s 4 last meet. Belle plain actually put 6 ahead of Worthington’s 4th.
Such a shame since this was supposed to be a signature year for Worthington. Very senior heavy team this year. But they do have underclassmen that will carry this team to big things in 2 years. Sad that all 3 of these teams can make it from most other sections

They kept Jade at #1 all of 2021 cross country seasonafter she won the TCRC showcase (2020) against Amanda and the 3200 at state(2021).

In 2021 Amanda won State against Jade in cross country. So I am guessing they will keep her there all season. In 2022 Jade came back and won the 1600 and 3200 against Amanda.

So I was a bit surprised also that they still have Amanda at #1 but am looking forward to watching it play out at state.

You can go ahead and count Mounds View out. They aren’t where they were last year. Lost to Stillwater.
For Washburn to win, Just needs to bring his A-game and Gross needs to drop over a minute from his PR, which is rare to do with how little time of the season is left.

On a different note, it looks like Edina’s defor is not lined up for Conference. Not sure what’s going on there. He wasn’t even on the roster at the start of the season. Then he made a sudden appearance at Bauman Rovn. He’s either been running unattached or with their JV when he’s clearly Edina’s top 2. Doesn’t matter cause I don’t see them going to state anyways. But it never hurts to put him in at sections and see their chances of qualifying though.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1GPdTxiHRPIeWZW2OWIvxnSHhur4Zj-X510NPKK9KLIE/htmlview#gid=0

Looks like the older Fries isn’t lined up here.
https://www.tonkatrack.org/page/show/602640-boys-cross-country-2012-

I see Fellner twice. Pretty sure there is only 1 Fellner on the team. Maybe they accidentally put Fellner the second time instead of the other Fries

Mounds View lost their #2, #3 (JC Otto to injury) and #5 at NXR (Max Gregory running as Cayden Stoner who was pulled due to injury). If you look at the guys they have, their improvement from last year at the same meet is good (Lelinga 1:50, several other guys ~1:00 year-to-year). No they're not going to be making the trip to NXN, but underwhelming seems dramatic. MN as a state is just much deeper this year.

Stillwater was bad at Alexandria last year and ran really well last weekend. Riniker has made a good jump as a soph, they got Degonda back who was a 16:5x guy two years ago but didn't race in 2021, and Kilibarda is back where he should be. Lots of 5-men teams in MN this year so will be interesting to see who can put it together in November!

The mounds view guys that impressed me the most are those that weren’t on varsity last year. Like Lelinga and a bunch of juniors like Coleman and Arnold.

But yes, it’s very competitive this year in MN. The loss of Skelly/Otto and McArthur dropping in the class rank definitely negatively impacted this team.

None of the teams that finished in the top 6 at state graduated many people. This is why it’s so much more competitive this year. Mounds View beat Minnetonka but Tonka’s fifth guy died down last year after the first mile. I definitely think they Tonka have made the podium.

Stillwater only returned 2 guys from last year’s state meet but that’s not something to be fooled by. They also returned Degonda/Kilibarda who raced at TCRC, but not this year’s state meet. And a sophomore that stepped up. Those are their top 5, and Christensen is making the most of this group.

I do think Mounds View will be better next year than this year since teams like Lakeville North and Rosemount are losing a bunch of guys and will be mediocre again. Mounds View will only lose McArthur and Lelinga.

Way too early 2023 boys predictions:

I think next year Wayzata will practically be unbeatable. Could have a high finish at NXN. But they will need to develop a low stick to replace Hamza.

For Southwest it will be a hit or miss. It will depend if they find a 5th or not. if they find one they could maybe challenge Wayzata but it will be hard. If they don’t find one, they probably wont podium.
Until Southwest finds a 5th for next year it is looking to look like this:

1. Wayzata

2. Minnetonka

3. Mounds View

4. Minneapolis Southwest

5. Bloomington Jefferson

should* have made the podium

Lots of 5-man teams in MN right now can possibly turn into a 6-man team this year. Which would help in case someone has an off day.
Stillwater can possibly become a 6-man team (Walsh is stepping up. Also did well in track).
Same with North (Altergott is stepping up).
Same with Wayzata (with McMillan back and Dietrick being better than last year)
If Beaudette (who scored last year at state) is in top shape he could maybe join Rosemount’s top 5 and make it a 6-man team.
Eden Prairie could turn into a 6-man team if Derouin is healthy and Doolittle gets back to where he was last year when he made state individually.
Southwest pretty much is a 6-man team.

Minnetonka has more depth than any other team in the state. Eden Prairie is deep too but they aren’t looking to do anything special other than making state.

Ryan Fries not racing Conference