Running Up Mountains wrote:
"There was nothing special about 2001-2003, except the continuation of the steady progression of "non-oxygen" related improvements to speed that had been observed between 1992-2001."
OMG, Rekrunner is Jon Orange.
What is going on here at this Paula thread?
Is this an old Paula thread that I have not even seen before now?
Yes.
That is a surprise.
I have a few comments:
Ms. Paula Radcliffe's 2:15:25 is equivalent (Purdy tables) to a 4:00 mile, 8:00 3K, 13:53 5K, and 29:03 10K. Paula is way beyond Almaz Ayana, Wang Junxia, and the Dibabas. Paula is the best long distance athlete that has ever lived on this planet.
From wiki:
She has previously asked for the results of a blood test taken at the London Marathon to be made public, saying that she had "absolutely no objection to my test being released".[115]
In 2015, in the wake of revelations of widespread doping in athletics,[116] Radcliffe said that, unlike some other prominent British athletes, she would not be releasing her blood-test history, and discouraged other athletes from doing so.[117] She was later indirectly identified as a suspected doper by MP Jesse Norman during a parliamentary inquiry into blood doping.[118][119] In response, Radcliffe issued a statement in which she "categorically denied" cheating in any form and said she has "nothing to hide".[120] Shortly afterwards, her three suspect test results were leaked, though Radcliffe still refused to release her complete blood-test history.[121] In late November 2015, the IAAF declared that the accusation were "based on the gross misinterpretation of incomplete data". The UK Anti Doping Agency, having received Radcliffe's blood test history via the IAAF, stated that "Ukad has come to the same conclusion as the IAAF review that there is no case to answer".[122]
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(Ross Tucker has Paula as a 7 out of 10 on his "suspicious" scale.) Here are some results from his website of OFF scores from some blood test results:
http://sportsscientists.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Capture-400x256.png
The OFF score= hemoglobin(g/dL) x 10 - 60 x (square root of the reticulocyte%).
Here is the information I used to come to a conclusion on Ms. Radcliffe:
On Oct. 2, 2003…two days before the World Championship Half-Marathon that she won…Paula had a blood test result which had a hemoglobin value of 12.8 g/dL, and a reticulocyte score of 0.59% (of RBCS), which make up an OFF score of 82 pre-race.
On Oct. 4, 2003…Paula had a blood test result which had a hemoglobin value of 15.6 g/dL, and a reticulocyte score of 0.47% (of RBCs), which make up an OFF score of 114.87 post-race. The IAAF report also stated that the increase was 2.8 g/dl. Since the final value on Oct. 4, 2003 is known to be 15.6 g/dL in the leaked values that were published in the Sunday Times, the hemoglobin value on Oct. 2, 2003 was 12.8 g/dL.
That is a 21.88% increase in hemoglobin value in 2 days, from 12.8 g/dL to 15.6 g/dL.
To get a rough estimate of hematocrit score (which many people are more familiar with), the hemoglobin score can be multiplied by 3, so the 12.8 Hb would be roughly equivalent to a hematocrit value of 38.4%. A 21.88% increase in hematocrit value in 2 days, from 38.4% to 46.8% is a very large magnitude increase... in a very short amount of time.
Even severe dehydration, which causes a loss of plasma volume, and elevates Hb values, does not increase hemoglobin values more than 15%…even in extreme dehydration after running for 2.5 to 3 hours and losing 4% of bodyweight. Paula ran for 1 hour 7 minutes and also won the race.
Altitude training can increase Hb values by 5 to 10%…and takes 3 to 6 weeks to work. All types of EPO take weeks to work. Cobalt chloride takes weeks to work. Inhalation of xenon or krypton gas to increase erythropoiesis also takes weeks to work. Hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) stabilizers such as FG-4592 also take weeks to work. No other drug or substance that I know of can work in 2 days to increase hemoglobin values by that much.
There is only one plausible explanation for hemoglobin values that increase by 21.88% in 2 days:
1) An autologous blood transfusion by Ms. Paula Radcliffe.
(The reticulocyte score also shows a 20% decrease from 0.59% of RBCs to 0.47% of RBCs, which is also consistent with a blood transfusion, since the reticulocytes are diluted by the infusion of the old stored blood.)
My conclusion is:
Ms. Paula Radcliffe is a Brit Doper-Cheater-Liarâ„¢.
For more reading on the physiology and mechanism of action:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3874847/(Please note that each gram of hemoglobin binds 1.39 mL of oxygen.)
http://www.hypo2sport.com/total-hemoglobin-mass-testing-the-gold-standard/http://www.hypo2sport.com/high-performance-services/physiologicalperformance-testing/Paula is OFF the charts in every way.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/11/04/12/005A4F6F00000258-3303406-image-a-35_1446640504599.jpghttp://media.gettyimages.com/photos/athlete-of-the-year-paula-radcliffe-marc-maury-hicham-el-guerrouj-hrh-picture-id1651915http://www2.pictures.gi.zimbio.com/2007+World+Athletics+Gala+bVvZN8YHBSjx.jpg
Paula and Lord Coe are having a lot of fun at the IAAF gala in Monte Carlo, Monaco.
Go Paula.