MN Cross Country Predictions 2022

Fair reason to believe they could’ve taken it like a workout

Facts nachotaco

Exactly. Wayzata seems unbeatable right now, I think Tonka could put up a fight if older Fries is back. Surprised to see Tyler Vos run 10:00 or so, he must be related to Andrew who finished 13th at the state meet last year.

If they really are related that must be helpful. He can take some advice from his older brother. He probably wanted to make the varsity team like his brother did junior year.
Jefferson has 2 guys (8th and 9th grader) in the JV top 7 that have older relatives scoring for their varsity. Their times are not outstanding right now but give them a few years and they could make 2025 a great, deep year for Jefferson (which already has 4 freshmen who were good enough to run at Griak). They could challenge for a state title/NXN berth that year.
They also have a 7th grader in their JV top 7.

WTH this is so stupid. Wayzata beat Cherry Creek HEAD TO HEAD just to be ranked 2 spots below them?
https://www.milesplit.com/rankings/flo50/1493/5160

Looks like provenzano is doing much better at Carmel than he would have done if he was at Hopkins

Abbey Nechanicky shot up from #10 to #2 in Dyestat’s Top 30 Individual Girls national rankings, out today. That reflects her two most recent runaway wins.

Gonna get this out before people try to gas the results up to much: Ev Berg is and has been a very fast course and generally is where people who run it turn in one of their fastest times of the year. No Rosemount is no winning state. No they won’t put 4 guys under 16 at state. They’re running almost a minute ahead of griak. Stachewiz/Casey’s times are still fast but they probably ran more by themselves so those are more reasonable and in line with previous times.

Someone had to say it😅

results.wayzatatiming.com

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Wow, great race between Lakeville North and Rosemount at EV berg. 2 point gap for the Lakeville win. Casey ran amazing, so did Stachewicz and Harder. That will be a battle at state.

Ev Berg
https://results.wayzatatiming.com/meets/18471/xc-scoreboard
Lakeville North boys team beat Rosemount but not by much. Very close race. Should be another close race between them at conference, state and NXR. But they are in different sections and both teams should win them with ease.
Times seem pretty fast. 24 guys under 17. But on this course times are always fast.

Looks like North also has a 6th unlike Rosemount. Altergott was on the very cusp in North’s top 7 last year and the year before so he was probably tired of not making their top 7 (and not running varsity at sections) and wanted to be close to their top 5. This is good for the team though. Having a 6th helps if someone has an off day and also helps with displacement.
Beaudette from Rosemount ran in the JV race even though he scored for them at State last year. Should be back on varsity soon based on his time. I thought he was gonna be closer to their top 5 since he scored for them last year.
Boston Peterson is an 8th grader. Brennen / Lauren Peterson’s brother I’m assuming?
17:13 is really good for an 8th grader. We can expect him to maybe score for their varsity next year.

Rosemount freshman times:
17:13 (8)
17:30
18:11 (coach’s son)
18:11
18:33
18:53
19:01
19:20

Jefferson’s
16:34
16:34
17:10
18:25
20:24 (8) (brother of the Ian Klein?)
20:25
20:45 (7)
21:12 (brother of Adam Lueth)

Wayzata’s
17:40
17:55
18:19 (8)
18:57 (8)
19:10
So it looks like, in AAA, Jefferson has a better group of top 3 freshmen-and-under than Rosemount and Wayzata. Rosemount has the deepest freshman-and-under class. Jefferson has a great group of top 3 freshmen. Their 4th/5th freshmen aren’t that outstanding but they have 8th and 9th graders who are not in their top 3 in this group, but have older brothers on varsity so this could be helpful.
Becker and Orono also have very good freshman times but they are in AA. But it will matter for NXR 2025 to everyone that wants to make NXN because all AA and AAA teams will be eligible to race at NXR heartland.

Perham invite:
https://gsetiming.com/results/cc_rslts/cc_rslts.asp?meet_id=1060&race_id=5534&show_indiv=n&hide_team=n&hide_ind=n&sport=Cross-Country
Rypkema wins by a minute.
Bemidji missing one of their scorers.
Perham got a nice mostly-sophomore-built team. 1 senior on varsity for the second year in a row.
Lakeville South has a nice young team that could challenge for the conference title next year after Rosemount and North graduate a lot of people. Seems like a nice reloading program now. I did not expect them to reload and beat Owatonna for state last year. Owatonna had a best freshman class in the state in 2018 / best soph class in 2019. And still failed to ever make state after 2012. Nice to see Lakeville North not repeat those mistakes after having a best sophomore class in the state in 2020.

Thundering royal elk:
https://gsetiming.com/results/cc_rslts/cc_rslts.asp?meet_id=1079&race_id=5546&show_indiv=n&hide_team=n&hide_ind=n&sport=Cross-Country
Centennial over Heritage Christian (the new class A favorite).
Centennial got a nice senior class and have a nice program so I would hope they qualify out of a rather weak section 7AAA.

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It’s actually becoming a lot harder to see how North / Rosemount would stack up against Wayzata. IMO, North’s 4/5 were farther behind their number 3 than I expected. The race between North and Rosemount was NOT close at Griak

Jade Rypkema ran a 17:16 at Perham: fantastic time! She and Amanda Overgaauw are bound to have a fierce run-off at State. It’s too bad they don’t get more opportunities to compete during the regular season. Plus I sure hope to see them both in Sioux Falls on November 13th.

So uh, how does he expect to win a state title if he can’t even beat the teammate that isn’t in the mix?

Dude, it was his first race of the season after not racing for 11 months. He will be back I think.

https://mn.milesplit.com/signings/45770

Speed ratings
Wayzata
177
174
172
170
161 (I’m sure that this big gap will be closed by someone)

Lakeville North
179
173
169
164
159

Rosemount
172
171
168
166
160 (usually, Schultz is not this far back)
Seems like Wayzata has the best speed ratings out of the 3 teams. Lakeville North needs to close the 3-5 gap to step up to have a chance to win.
Rosemount will need all 4 of Harder’s teammates right next to him to win state. Not that easy to do.
But hey, I’m sure Wayzata is still working on closing the gap between 1-5 too.

I will be curious to see how Dowling Catholic’s speed ratings turn out. Maybe Wayzata can win the Heartland region again.
I don’t think Minnetonka’s Hoka 3200 times can be speed rated. Doesn’t matter though. They were probably not as fast as expected anyways.

http://tullyrunners.com/XC2022/Ratings_Oct08.htm#Owatonna

http://tullyrunners.com/XC2022/Ratings_Oct01.htm#STMA

This time even caught the attention of Bill Meylan, who speed rated Jade’s performance here: 142!

Will Mankato East be ranked number 1 now that they beat Worthington?