MN Cross Country Predictions 2022

Also, an 8th and a 9th grader that lead the Jefferson team in the JV race each have the same last name as a guy on the varsity team. If they are brothers, this could be advantageous for them (and hence the team) for the future.

In MN there are teams that are “always good” or “always up there” like Wayzata, Edina, Mounds View, and Stillwater. Jefferson is looking to be joining that group soon.

side note - Tony Provenzano ran a 15:02 and his team almost beat the #3 team in the nation (whose #1 guy was missing)!!!! He must be having a total blast there!!!!!!!!
https://timingmd.net/Results/xc/twi_10_1_22/Race%20Length%20nikentwi.html

Jefferson Speed ratings for underclassmen
157 - 10
157 - 9
156 - 9
148 - 10
144 - 9
138 - 10
Putz got a 191 speed rating.
157/156 is really good in itself but to run that as a freshman…amazing
http://tullyrunners.com/XC2022/Ratings_Oct01.htm#Steve

https://mn.milesplit.com/signings
Nick Gilles to Wisconsin Madison
Alden Keller to Duke

Boys AAA teams-
1. Lakeville North. Very senior-heavy team. Scoring 5 are all seniors, and this varsity team has been the same since 2020 basically, which enhances the team chemistry. Top MN team at Griak
2. Wayzata. Young team. Good depth and pack. Lone senior is their front runner, something they did not have last year.
3. Rosemount. Good pack of 5 (4 seniors) but lacks a front guy to bring the score down in championship races.
4. Minnetonka. Not at full strength at Griak, but could challenge for the podium once everyone is healthy. Also a very young, mostly sophomore-built, deep team.
5. Mounds View. Deep team, but front runner needs to be back to where he was last year. And the 2-5 gap needs to be closed better also. Very young, mostly junior-built team.
6. MPLS Washburn. Has one of the fastest guys in the Heartland region, but needs a fifth man to punch a ticket to state.
7. MPLS Southwest. Has the best junior in the state. Also solid at positions 2-6. Young team but needs a number five for next year to take this team to the next level.
8. Bloomington Jefferson (I moved this team up here because they have a solid front runner and a 5th runner. Neither of which we see from Eden Prairie right now). Stillwater has a good top 5 as well, but Jefferson has a better #1 guy. This is also only the beginning of their success with only 1 senior and 2 juniors on this team.
9. Stillwater. Solid top 5. #1 guy is always the same. Reloaded very nicely from last year when pretty much all of their top guys were seniors.
10. Eden Prairie. No low stick. Also needs a 5th man ready to go for sections.

Individuals
1. Noah Breker. Won Griak.
2. Sam Scott. Second MN runner at Griak
3. Andrew Casey. Third MN runner at Griak. Putting him here for taking down Sam Scott in a race once. Looking to lead his senior-laden team to a state title.
4. Nick Gilles. Off day at Griak. But he has done better in previous races.
5. Aidan Jones. Almost beat Andrew Casey at Griak. Also, looking to lead his team to possibly make state out of a very rigorous section.
6. Adam Lueth (for taking down Kifle who beat Hamza at Griak). Seems like he was the only one who raced this week.
7. Hamza Mohamed. As I mentioned before, last year there was no front runner at Wayzata. This seemed to have changed this year. 5th MN finisher at Griak.
8. Nolan Sutter. Won the Maroon race
9. Bryce Stachewicz. Scored for his team as an 8th grader and is now having a great senior season, looking to help his team win their first state title ever. 6th MN AAA finisher in the Gold race at Griak
10. Hootie Hage. Did not race at Griak but won the race he did run.

Best 2 teams in each section in boys AAA
1- Lakeville North and South
2- Minnetonka and Eden Prairie
3- Rosemount and Bloomington Jefferson
4- Stillwater and Woodbury
5- Mounds View and Roseville
6- Wayzata and Minneapolis Washburn
7- Centennial and Blaine
8- Buffalo and Bemidji

Any more thoughts on Stillwater? Seem to be improving pretty quick, and they didn’t have a meet this quick which probably meant some hard training.

Well Scott Christensen is just a great coach. He’s been doing it for years and years and Stillwater has had many state championship teams in the past. Including an NXN berth in 2011. I think they got a national title in 1997 but I don’t think there was an official national meet back then.

They seem to be pretty close with Jefferson.

They are facing off at Victoria lions against each other. Along with Minneapolis Washburn and Edina. Should be an interesting meet.

Abbey Nechanicky (Wayzata's #1) announced on Instagram her commitment to the University of Colorado.

Yeah, that’s big for Colorado. Nick Gilles also announced he’s committing to Wisconsin to team up with Andrew Casey. Big moves.

Big teams have races this week leading into championship season:

Lakeville North:
EV Berg Invite in Owatonna, big race vs Rosmeount.

Wayzata:

STMA invite, pretty tough course but Wayzata should still win.

Rosemount:

EV Berg, Lakeville North will be competition.

Minnetonka:

2 mile time trial, will be nice to see them race again at full strength, haven’t seen that since early September.

moundsview:

alexandria lions, good race for Moundsview to finally put down fast time.

There is also Gale Woods race with Jefferson and Edina, which should be great.

Anyone know how Bloomington Jefferson got so good? Seems like they’ve been getting better and deeper over the years and this isn’t looking to stop.

Was it the new coaching? New philosophy? New training?

Seems like a “Rebuilding” year for the buffs after losing many seniors.

But most of the team will be eligible next year.

Will Nechanicky keep up with covert next year?

Well I doubt it, covert broke 17 at griak unlike Nechanicky

Never mind…covert didn’t break 17 at griak. But we will see where Nechanicky stands on the team next year

Abbey Nechanicky just won the STMA Invite in 16.47.4 !

16:47.4

For comparison, Ali Weimar won this meet last year in 17:43.

Wayzata girls put all 5 scorers in the top 11 at the STMA Invite, for 27 points. Minnetonka girls were second, with 78 points.

More comparison: Hamza Mohammed, Wayzata’s #1, won the boy’s race in 15:40.7 (compared to Nechanicky’s 16:47.4).

Boys-
Wayzata had some more young talent emerge to keep the ball rolling for future years:
Viera - 9 - 17:55
They also put 4 guys under 16:01. 5th was far back but they were missing McMillan so he probably would have been up with them too. Is there something that took them so long to figure out? Pack running and trying to keep up with Hamza I guess.
With (or even without?) McMillan back they might have made themselves state and maybe NXR favorites again…
Breker was missing unlike the rest of his team.