When will the unemployment rate hit 10%?

Personally, I've been almost entirely in precious metals since 2005, before they more than doubled and before the stock market halved. The question is even with a 30$ gain, heck even with a doubling of their wealth, will most have even broken even as compared to 2005, once you've factored in inflation?

Sagarin wrote:

And webby, I know you seem like a reasonable guy, but do we have to go through the myopic period of every month? is this fun, when it's not even a realistic time frame and you full well know it? .

If you are talking myopia, I am pretty sure you immediately began predicting disaster under Obama after only several months (and often even before he was ever elected). Sure you always hedged with "if this if that," but the bottom line is you were not afraid to pull the trigger on virtually guaranteeing economic disaster under Obama. You were not worried about making predictions that most would consider difficult to make after such a short time of his in office.

I predicted that the Perfect Storm was ahead of us, not behind us, and I see no reason to change course, as, predictably, Obama's spending spree is unfathomable, wreckless, and unsustainable. I see no reason to change that view. I would feel differently were he not beholden to Pelosi/Reid.

webby wrote:

We placed our bets long ago. As did you, when you pulled all of your long-term investments out of stocks just in time to miss out on a 30% gain in a period of a few months as the recession was very predictably ending. When the next recession hits in five or ten years, you'll be crowing that it's the double-dip you saw coming all along. Meanwhile, all of those who whistled past the graveyard of your Great Deleveraging warnings and the links to businessinsider.com and the globaleconomicanalysis blog will have doubled their wealth.

Sorry for mischaracterizing you, as it's rather obvious the depths of your disingenuousness. It is well documented on here that I started buying back into my portfolio in November of 2008 after I sold everything in January of 2008, before the last leg down occurred a few months later. Can't time the market perfectly after all, and I've never claimed otherwise. I noted how cash levels and sentiment extremes were getting to the levels from which cyclical rallies are launched EVEN AS I thought that we could very well see a coughing-up-blood type of capitulation (which we did, in fact, see in the financials) back in March. We didn't.

And, yes, I did sell some off "prematurely," but changed my bias in August. I even told you the market would likely see 1150 on the S&P 500 +/- 25 points, and that would be the clarion call. Whether it is or isn't, I'm out, but for some late cyclicals like utilities, energy, and healthcare. I recently got long volatility. And I had stellar gains last year, yes, even shorting the market for periods of time. I'm quite certain my gains were better than yours, but perhaps not when adjusting for risk. Nonetheless, I still believe this is a cyclical rally in a secular bull, fully cognizant of the fact that we may still see a "capitulation in." In fact, I'd be a bit stunned if the market DIDN'T go higher still. If that happens, that's when I'm completely out and getting aggressively short.

Clearly, I'll see you in a month Webby, though I'd prefer not to waste my time. Have a nice Easter. You might want to work on that vindictiveness you're clinging to. I've all but let this go, but for this thread that keeps getting bumped. No one cares about my portfolio, Flagpole's retirement scenario, or your occasional toothless snippets without really committing to a position. Next thing you're going to tell us is that you jumped out in November of 2007.

... cyclical bull within a secular BEAR.

One last thing webby, webfoot, or whatever moniker you so choose, depending on the thread... did I not predict several months in advance that unemployment was going to double-digits, even as others were quoting "economists" who had the rate capped even in the 7% range??? I wasn't wrong about that, and we could still climb higher yet. Regardless, structural unemployment is going to remain elevated for the foreseeable future as I warned over a year ago.

I'm not here to give investment advice and have categorically stated that repeatedly. No one should be. Having worked on the investment analysis side and for an economic "boutique," my "view" has generally not synched up with my "trading style." I can't link to proprietary data, so I offer up some free general information.

Guess what, soothsayer? Even Mish called the bottom when the the S&P 500 hit 666, so he may have been more useful to you than you would like to otherwise pretend. But you paint this as just another ordinary cyclical downdraft with a "predictable" recovery scenario. You couldn't be more wrong, even if the Fed's counterfeiting operation successfully blows another extended bubble.

webby 11/6/2009 1:17PM - in reply to Sagarin wrote:

With respect to the OP, I think the much more interesting and difficult question is: "When will the unemployment rate drop below 9%?"

With low inventories, sky-high productivity, and increasing corporate profits, I suspect that job growth will start sometime between Monday afternoon and the end of Q1 2010, with unemployment falling to 9% by the end of 2010 and dropping to 6% by the end of 2013. Not even close to the tired, morbid refrain of a jobless recovery that we've been warned about. Rather a slow climb back to normalcy that hold promise to fill the gap that will be left by an orderly unwinding of federal life-support.

Others?

Who's still skeptical that the employment situation is improving steadily and in line with historical standards -- and that our economy has been steered back to health as well as any in the world?

(I see the doomsayers lining up to eat crow!)

webby wrote:

Who's still skeptical that the employment situation is improving steadily and in line with historical standards -- and that our economy has been steered back to health as well as any in the world?

(I see the doomsayers lining up to eat crow!)

damn, laying the smackdown on Sagarin. Nice bump webbster, nice indeed.