Is Webb really a 5km guy?

it would be good if he could somehow run the 5000m at next year's nationals, but run well enough to be awarded the US entry at 1500m for the World Cup in Berlin.

i think he should just focus on one thing. he isn't quite a world class miler yet. it seems a bit premature to suggest that he should be adding another focus.

Webb can be great in the 5k but not as good as he would be in the 1500 I believe. He could medal this year in the 1500(Lagat isn't running), but no chance in the 5k even if he trained for it. If he trained for 5000 from now he could break 13 but I see more potential in the 1500.

Alan Webb clearly could excel in both the 1500m or the 5000m depending on which he focused on in the upcoming years. His potential in the 1500m/Mile has been displayed and he surely have the capabilities of running sub 3:30 within 1-2 years. The training for the two events isn't extremely different (1500m little more aerobic/5000m more ana-aerobic training) so if he decides to focus on the 5000m in his late 20's he could become a medal threat in it as well after a couple years training for the event. If Alan goes thru his career without any major injuries or setbacks I think he could ultimately run:

1500m.........3:28 high

5000m....sub 12:50

you can still "focus" on your primary event but race short or long to improve yourself.

off years are great for that stuff, and if he runs as we know he can, there's no one else (save the inelligible Lagat) that US selectors should pick for the World Cup team next year (unless they require running in that event at USATFs -- don't know if that's the case)

It's nice to see the confidence in Webb. I don't necessarily think that sub 13 would be in his future ( Kennedy is a supreme stud and went 12:58) but under 3:30 is almost a definite. 3:32 last year point all fingers to the event just like 13:44 for Rupp points at the 5k or 10k for him. Great topic though, please keep up the posts!

I must there have been some great constructive posts on this topic. Hardly any bashing and just some well thought out comments related to this topic! This is the Lets Run posts that I enjoy reading.

Keep up the great comments.

Shocked wrote:

I must there have been some great constructive posts on this topic. Hardly any bashing and just some well thought out comments related to this topic! This is the Lets Run posts that I enjoy reading.

Keep up the great comments.

You're an idiot.

hulkk wrote:

Bottom line guys.....the sport's history is full of guys who should have moved up sooner. Coe would have been a fantastic 3k-5k guy. That's why I always maintained that if Terhat would have concentrated on the marathon earlier he woulda had some more success. Same w/ Viren. He was 5th in the 76 ganes after running prelims and finals in the 5 and the 10. Lots of others to. Timing is everything.

A 1:41 800m runner should have moved up earlier?!? Tergat would have had more success if he moved up earlier!?! He held the World Record for 10k for a bit and currently holds the marathon world record. How much more success could he have had?

Webb is not as "bulky" as he appears in photos. I think he just chooses to lift and swim and so has more definition. As far as lower body he really is no bigger than Lagat or El G. Do these two choose not to lift for upper or lower body?

Is Benji a well-hung doberman?

Time-wise there has never been a more "successful" distance runner in the world than Paul Tergat. Before anyone's head explodes let me explain.

For argument purposes I'm defining "distance running" as the 5k, 10k, and marathon distances. (I know that XC and other distances qualify as distance running, but for comparative purposes I'm limiting the definition to these three events). That being said I looked at the all-time list to see who has met the following criteria (my choice):

1. Run at least eight 5,000 meter races under 13:15 (39 men meet this criteria)

2. Run at least six 10,000 meter races under 28:00, (61 men meet this criteria)

3. Run at least six marathon races under 2:10:30. (35 men meet this criteria)

Only Paul Tergat has meets those standards (so far). I used his eight best 5k times to calculate his average 5k time, his best six 10k times to calculate his average 10k time, and his best six marathon times to calculate his average marathon time.

Here's what I ended up with:

5k Avg - 12:56.79

10k Avg - 26:55.14

Mar Avg - 2:07:02

You can stack those numbers against anyone from any time and you will not find a more "successful" distance runner.

If you look at each of these three events individually and rank the all time runners according to the criteria I listed above you get the following rankings:

5,000m:

1. Haile Gebrselassie ETH

2. Daniel Komen KEN

3. Salah Hissou MAR

4. Sammy Kipketer KEN

5. Paul Tergat KEN

10,000m:

1. Haile Gebrselassie ETH

2. Paul Tergat KEN

3. Paul Koech KEN

4. Sileshi Sihene ETH

5. Salah Hissou MAR

Marathon:

1. Khalid Khannouchi MAR/USA

2. Paul Tergat KEN

3. Josephat Kiprono KEN

4. Abdelkader El Mouaziz MAR

5. Sammy Korir KEN

Needless to say he is in some very exclusive company on each of those lists, and yet, only he appears on all three lists.

I disagree that if Tergat moved up to the marathon earlier that he would have had more "success" (time-wise). His career is unmatched by anyone so far. Not even Geb can match him. K. Bekele may one day surpass him, but he has a long way to go.

You can certainly make the argument that others have been more successful (in terms of titles/medals won), but judging strictly on time, Tergat stands alone at the top of the distance running mountain.

If anyone would like a copy of the full lists (one page each) for all three events plus a one page summary you can email me your request and I will send you a PDF file of those lists.

Geb's avg (top 6 5ks)

12:46.86

Geb's avg (top 6 10ks)

26:36.53

since a marathon is 4 times the distance of a 10k, shouldnt you decrease the number of times neccessary to qualify for your marathon list. you decreased from 5k to 10k and a 10k is obviously only twice the distance. 6 marathons is a lot. does anyone else meet your same criteria but with 3 or 4 marathons?

Trackhead -

I used:

Top 8 for 5k

Top 6 for 10k

Top 6 for marathon

Spokane XC -

I purposely selected tough criteria so that only those who performed at an exceptional level over time would make the cut. I wanted to eliminate the "one hit" runners so to speak. I did not use any particular formula as to how many of each race to use, but after looking at the lists it struck me that Tergat has shown excellence at all three distances multiple times.

There are a few others that come close but they have slightly fewer races per distance. I don't remember their names off the top of my head as I did this analysis several months ago. I could look it up later and let you know if you are interested.

"Bottom line guys.....the sport's history is full of guys who should have moved up sooner. Coe would have been a fantastic 3k-5k guy. That's why I always maintained that if Terhat would have concentrated on the marathon earlier he woulda had some more success. Same w/ Viren. He was 5th in the 76 ganes after running prelims and finals in the 5 and the 10. Lots of others to. Timing is everything."

Maybe so, but your examples are a little bit suspect. Coe ran his 1500m pr, 3:29 in '86, three years before he retired. He ran 1:43.38 in '89, his last full year as a runner. Furthermore, his annual 3,000m race, which he did indoors, was never even a sub 7:50 affair. I don't think he would have had the proper muscle fiber make-up to run 7:35 or 13:10.

Viren was winning the 10k/5k double in the olypics in '76. Why should he have moved up to the marathon as his principal event when he was the best 10k/5k runner in the world?

Tergat won olympic silver in the 10000m in 2000, the year before he debuted in the marathon. He has run a 2:04 world record since then. To say that his marathon career would have been better had he moved up is stretching analysis to extreme levels.

Vipam, it is an absolute impossibility that Webb will run sub 12:50 without pharmaceutical help. You're talking nearly 10 seconds faster than any American has every run. Webb's good, but he isn't that good. I think Webb could be a 13:00 guy or maybe just a hair under it, but I doubt he is going to catch BK's time and I certainly don't see him cutting 30+ seconds off his 5K in the next 7 years.

hulkk wrote:

Bottom line guys.....the sport's history is full of guys who should have moved up sooner. Coe would have been a fantastic 3k-5k guy. That's why I always maintained that if Terhat would have concentrated on the marathon earlier he woulda had some more success. Same w/ Viren. He was 5th in the 76 ganes after running prelims and finals in the 5 and the 10. Lots of others to. Timing is everything.

Ummm...Viren did win 2 Olympic Golds in 76. Its not like he was stuck at a distance that didn't suit his talents.

Tergat was still plenty young when he went to the marathon, it simply took him several years to run the times people expected of him. Also, its not like he was guaranteed a gold if he had run the marathon in 2000.

Coe might have been a fantastic 3k-5k guy, but he WAS a world beater at the 8 and 15.

Very bad examples.