xfitblowsuckas wrote:
HyTink wrote:if less than 174?? million unique number combinations are sold there is a chance the winning number combo will not be sold. Once the prize gets high enough it's sure to draw more punters and the more chance every one of the combinations will be played and when all combos are played someone MUST win.
Well, the original quote doesn't have that big bold part.
What you said is right. As more tickets are bought, the probability that someone wins will increase. You're also correct in stating that at a certain point the probability of someone winning will be high enough that it effectively guarantees that at least one winner is chosen.
However, simply because the odds of one thing happening (that someone will win the lottery) will increase as more tickets are sold does not also mean that odds of a different thing (that a specific person will win the lottery) happening will also increase as more tickets are sold. In other words, more tickets being purchased DOES NOT increase the odds in the favor of any single person. Any single person's odd will always be dependent only on how many unique tickets they purchased. And they can always expect to win about 90 cents for every 2 dollars they spend. Obviously, they won't take home 90 cents every time, but, in the aggregate and over a long enough time-span that would be the result.
What you said is true, but it doesn't make sense in the context of the original quote, my comment on it, or the altered, somewhat non-nonsensical version of the original quote you included in your reply to my comment.
Wow...I had to read your (excellent) response to even figure out what the guy you were responding to was talking about. I couldn't follow his argument because I didn't consider the possibility that someone would actually be stupid enough to make the argument he was making.