Why couldn't bekele break 7:20 ?

i do believe geb was a faster 5k guy than kennster, but kennster better at 10k - they weren't equal at both

the differences though are very, very slim, albeit i woud always have favoured geb in the sprint of a slow race

ventolin^3 wrote:

i do believe geb was a faster 5k guy than kennster, but kennster better at 10k - they weren't equal at both

the differences though are very, very slim, albeit i woud always have favoured geb in the sprint of a slow race

Are you kidding me? Watch Paris WC 2003 or Bekele's 10k WR. No way in hell Geb's kick was better if both were in peak form.

ventolin^3 wrote:

i do believe geb was a faster 5k guy than kennster, but kennster better at 10k - they weren't equal at both

the differences though are very, very slim, albeit i woud always have favoured geb in the sprint of a slow race

Ok, well my question still stands I guess. Why do you think Bekele is slower than Geb at 5k?

ventolin^3 wrote:

we go thru this question periodically

i've been fortunate to have seen every sub-7'27 live on satellite

this is my list for them if all had been fully rested beforehand ( komen ran "tired" looking 13-flat just 2/7 before his wr ) & got perfect pacing to 2k ~

komen - 7'19-high

geb - 7'19-high/7'20-flat

hicham - 7'20-flat/7'20-low

kennster - 7'20-low/7'20-mid

morceli - 7'21/7'22

saidi-sief - 7'22

there really was little to choose between top 4 & you coud move them up'n'down that list & i woudn't complain

i give fractional advantage to komen as he does still have wr but that's more a titular advantage

Why do you do this? Why not accept that they ran what they ran and their PRs are what they are? What on earth do you get out of this? Good lord. When someone asks you how fast Daniel Komen was, do you reply with 7:19?

You know, if Komen had been perfectly rested, and if Earth's gravity was 15/16ths of what it actually is, and if he had a mechanical rabbit, and if the wind was at his back all the way around the track, and if he was one inch taller, I think he could have run 7:11. So that's what I'll call him. A 7:11 guy in perfect conditions.

Guppy wrote:

ventolin^3 wrote:

i do believe geb was a faster 5k guy than kennster, but kennster better at 10k - they weren't equal at both

the differences though are very, very slim, albeit i woud always have favoured geb in the sprint of a slow race

Are you kidding me? Watch Paris WC 2003 or Bekele's 10k WR. No way in hell Geb's kick was better if both were in peak form.

Geb's peak form was probably 1997-1998. He was certainly past it by 2003.

eh ???

try 3'31i for speed

or how about dragging 10'11.53 ( 12'44.41 pace ) to 12'39.36 - a 2'27.83 finish with a 56.77 finish

ventolin^3 wrote:

eh ???

try 3'31i for speed

or how about dragging 10'11.53 ( 12'44.41 pace ) to 12'39.36 - a 2'27.83 finish with a 56.77 finish

Gotcha, but what do you think about Bekele's 5k and 1500 times? His 5k had several sub 60 laps in it as well as a fast final lap. His 1500m was opened in 53-high and 1:51.

jwjwj wrote:Ok, well my question still stands I guess. Why do you think Bekele is slower than Geb at 5k?

see post about 1500/5k for geb

also, kennster amits to a 1'48tt - not quick enough

komen has run a 1'47.3tt & geb has been quoted at even as fast as 1'46 in a tt v hicham in '99 ( although i'm sceptical about geb's time )

they did a 800m time trial together as workout in 1999. HaileG ran 1:46 and ElG ran 1:43.9

ventolin^3 wrote:

jwjwj wrote:Ok, well my question still stands I guess. Why do you think Bekele is slower than Geb at 5k?

see post about 1500/5k for geb

also, kennster amits to a 1'48tt - not quick enough

komen has run a 1'47.3tt & geb has been quoted at even as fast as 1'46 in a tt v hicham in '99 ( although i'm sceptical about geb's time )

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=1093989

they did a 800m time trial together as workout in 1999. HaileG ran 1:46 and ElG ran 1:43.9

Why does the 800m matter if their 1500m are the same?

jwjwj wrote:what do you think about Bekele's 5k and 1500 times? His 5k had several sub 60 laps in it

there is 0 chance if anything but his last lap in his 12'37 was sub-60 ( but i haven't seen race for years - there is a recent one/off youtube vid - i haven't checked if it's there still )

His 1500m was opened in 53-high and 1:51.

high-3'30/low-3'31 that day

I just watched the 5k on YouTube 5 minutes ago. There was at least 1 sub 60 lap. Between 8:00 and 9:00 into the race.

quizzical wrote:why does he always have to keep predicting what some athlete coulda run in ideal circumstances?

no athlete ever woud want to have some sort of estimate of their perfect run...

tony soprano wrote:

I think Ol' Venty is one of the best poster on here. I've not seen these Ryun outliers, but he's been pretty near spot-on with some of his numbers. I love seeing his numbers on here. In fact, until I saw him respond to this thread, I was about to post asking what he might come up with.

Here's one example of Ventolin's Jim Ryun estimates:

He thinks Jim Ryun, with a 70s synthetic track, would have been faster than Rudisha and El G.

minor detail.

Mr. Obvious wrote:Yes, of course, he predicted sub 3:28 in the 1500 and 7:25 in the 3000 at Doha this week. Great analytical skills there. He's a maroon.

idiot

wind was listed as 3+ as start-up conditions

asbel didn't chase any time & only kicked from 200 out, speed up to 12.4 which is fastest ever i can recall for a near 3'30 run

geb3 didn't even bother following derisory 7'30 pace to 2k

he stayed mid-pack & probably was on for 7'35 at even pace to the bell - look at quoted 2'56 for last 3 laps, with 60+/53+ finish

he made no effort to chase a time & he's lot stronger than 12'47 from ole

Optimus wrote:

Here's one example of Ventolin's Jim Ryun estimates:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4461505

He thinks Jim Ryun, with a 70s synthetic track, would have been faster than Rudisha and El G.

Yes

What's your point?

Ventolin does a good job. It's not easy going up against a bunch of all-knowing DyeStat refugees.

ventolin^3 wrote:

Mr. Obvious wrote:Yes, of course, he predicted sub 3:28 in the 1500 and 7:25 in the 3000 at Doha this week. Great analytical skills there. He's a maroon.

idiot

wind was listed as 3+ as start-up conditions

asbel didn't chase any time & only kicked from 200 out, speed up to 12.4 which is fastest ever i can recall for a near 3'30 run

geb3 didn't even bother following derisory 7'30 pace to 2k

he stayed mid-pack & probably was on for 7'35 at even pace to the bell - look at quoted 2'56 for last 3 laps, with 60+/53+ finish

he made no effort to chase a time & he's lot stronger than 12'47 from ole

It is pronounced G Wet and I agree with you that those guys could have run much faster in Doha. If they had not slowed so much in that 3k G Wet might have gotten close to your prediction. But track does not work that way. It is what you run that defines you not subjective analysis. G Wet ran a 7:30 with a 53 last lap. Nothing more nothing less.

Canova>God wrote:

It is pronounced G Wet and I agree with you that those guys could have run much faster in Doha. If they had not slowed so much in that 3k G Wet might have gotten close to your prediction. But track does not work that way. It is what you run that defines you not subjective analysis. G Wet ran a 7:30 with a 53 last lap. Nothing more nothing less.

So you think that the fastest he could have run was 7:30?