Will Rupp break Alan Webb's Outdoor Mile AR?

brogan1 wrote:

I think the biggest argument for Rupp is the fact that he ran the 3:50 solo. With a rabbit he could go a bit faster.

What are you even talking about? Did you watch the race?

He had PERFECT rabbiting to 1200 - basically as far as any AR/WR attempt ever gets.

-80 Below Zero wrote:

He definitely can do it. I would be surprised if he does not at this point. If he continues to run this fast then I think he should consider trying to do the 1500m/10,000m double in 2016.

You. Are. Hysterical.

He "definitely" can improve by over four seconds?

All right, then.

And the Olympic 1500?

3:50.9 ~= 3:33.7 ... Not going to do much damage in Rio with that ability.

3:50.9 is great, for a 26:48 10,000 guy. But don't get carried away.

t94bell wrote:

if you can rip a 3:50 indoor mile, it blurs the line between what your specialty is.

WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

For the Nth time, 3:50i = 3:33-high.

Rupp is a 26:48 10,000 meter runner with probably 26:3x ability. 3:33 is nowhere near that level. No "line" is being blurred.

A couple of thoughts...

1) Can you imagine what Salazar would have done with Ritz if Ritz went to him after college and was focused on the track? I know someone will say Ritz isn't as fast as Rupp... but 5 years ago, you never would have though Rupp could be this fast. Rupp and Ritz both graduated college with similar speed (Ritz ran what, 3:42/43 as a frosh or sophomore?). Its too bad Ritz never worked on his speed like Rupp has. He could have been a real force on the track.

2) Rupp should be under 7:30/12:45 with the strength he has accumulated and the speed he now possesses. I am going with 3:31/12:44/26:30 as his times after this year. This would mean the kid is almost as fast as Haile G was in his prime. Insane.

3) Is there any other American who could do what Rupp has been doing? Webb, Fernandez, Solinsky, Derrick, Jager and Ritz seem to be talented enough? Webb and Ritz are too old to get to that level now. Solinsky's injury may hold him back from ever reaching it. Jager and Fernandez are possibly too fragile. That leaves Derrick? Is there anyone else anyone sees as having the potential that Rupp as displayed?

For those who say Derrick can't get to that level, again, I point to Rupp 5 year ago. Derrick can be as good.

T BONE wrote:

3:50 and change indoors...give him 5 more months of quality mile training - I think he can drop a second a lap and break Webbs record.

LOL. That's all.

T BONE wrote:

Rupp can own every AR from the mile through the marathon in the next 2 years.

For Rupp an AR in the marathon is far more likely than the mile, but he won't be doing that in the next two years.

He has a great shot at Lagat's 5000, though!

I don't think he will break Webb's record because he will not try. He is working on his speed. It will be very intimidating for anyone in the 5K or 10K to line up against a guy who can run 3:50 indoors. He should stick with the 5 and 10. He can get gold in both in 2016 then move up to the marathon.

special juice wrote:

You can not improve every single year as he does at that level. Your body has to have positive and negative physical cycles. There's only one thing keeping him on the uprise......

If you can spew this stuff ad nauseum without killing yourself, Rupp can certainly improve every year.

Why wouldn't Centro be in the conversation first?

His 3:31.9 converts to 3:48.9.

He is two seconds closer than Rupp, halfway to the record.

Wheating's PR is a full second faster than Centro.

Rupp may dip under 3:50.

I put others ahead of him.

Imagine Rupp does run a 3:45 or low-mid 3:46, which would be amazing and would give him the greatest 1500-10,000 range ever, btw, which seems far-fetched to me. You think the wild, unproven doping allegations are bad on here now. Wow, forget it.

No.

Rupp runs the mile indoors to enhance his speed and mix up his training,

Outdoors, he is a 5000/10000 meter man.

I'm speculating of course. But why would a world class long track runner try to compete against true 1500 elites outdoors?

That type of hubris, moving down to a distance out of your range, all but ended Said Aouita's career in '88. He decided he'd run an 800/1500 Olympic double. He got injured and a bronze for his efforts.

brogan1 wrote:

... I think the biggest argument for Rupp is the fact that he ran the 3:50 solo. With a rabbit he could go a bit faster.

Did you even watch the video? He had absolutely perfect rabbiting provided.

Please get a clue before posting.

The outrageous times logged this past weekend at indoor meets prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that USA T&F is more doped up than MLB, NFL, WWE, UFC/MMA and Cycling combined.

trojanman wrote:

No.

1) He's not a miler

2) He doesn't care about records at non-standard distances.

I think he's just getting ready to crush a 5000 later this year.

2) is obviously false. We're talking about this because he made an attempt at the American indoor mile record. He cares. He just won't care about it in July when he's trying to run fast longer races. I would say the opportunities to run a fast mile are too few and far between, but Nike and AlSal would absolutely set one up for him.

I'll say the only guy that has the natural ability to match Rupp's times in the future is Fernandez. If he can just tap back into the magic from his freshman year (at just 17/18 years old mind you) when he was running an NCAA record 3:55.02 indoor Mile at Big 12s completely alone, a big negative-split 7:47 3K indoors, finishing 11th as the top American finisher at World Junior Cross despite working through injury, and an 13:25 AJR at USAs. His natural talent is WELL above Rupp's.

only the german wrote:I'll say the only guy that has the natural ability to match Rupp's times in the future is Fernandez.

German's AJR 5k was run summer 2009; his WJR indoor mile that winter. In three years, he's improved to a 3:34 1500, which is obviously very good, but: 1) those years of steady aerobic and physical development Rupp had between the ages of 18 and 21, wherein Fernandez largely stagnated, are going to be critical. Track careers tend to peter out sometime in athletes' 30s, so 3 years of improvement is something like 15-20% of an athlete's total career. Fernandez may never close that gap. 2) Talent comes in many forms. For some, it's being the best 18 year old in the country; for others, it's having a higher performance ceiling. If athlete A is way better than Athlete B at age 18, and then Athlete B is far ahead at 26, it doesn't logically follow that there was wrong with Athlete A's training in the ensuing 8 years; rather, Athlete B's talent might be the ability to maintain a steady rise to the top, and Athlete A might just have been more mature earlier.

Everybody's been hard on Smith's coaching at Oklahoma, which as far as I can tell is about some bitter memories from Oregon before my time. And maybe he did really stunt Fernandez's career. Or, and this i think is more likely, coaching matters way less than people think it does, and Fernandez would have struggled pretty much anywhere. Point is, just because Fernandez was better at 18 does not make him more talented overall. It could mean many possible things, because talent is a diffuse, difficult-to-quantify concept.

Having said that, I wish Rupp and Fernandez had raced the indoor 3k at NCAA in 2009. That would have been something.

When will Rupp start getting the credit he deserves. He is a legit threat on Kenny B's world records.

Stop hating on the white guy you filthy racists.

World Record at 5000?

The American 5000 record is 15 seconds slower than the World Record and he hasn't come close to that.

I have no idea if Rupp will break the mile AR or not. Lots of interesting points in this thread, both pro and con.

BUT...

If he does, or when someone does, it needs to be done in at least a semblance of a real race. I'm not trying to be idiotically old school here. Of course, rabbits and tailored fields are part of the sport at the highest levels.

But let's just have it be done in a race that more than a handful of people are allowed to watch. A race that the media and fans of the sport know about ahead of time. Maybe even a race that's televised. Wow, there's a radical idea.

Not in some undisclosed location off in the forest in some small European country. Where there wasn't even a real meet going on. In a perfectly scripted setup designed for only one runner with glass confidence.

And we wonder why most people don't take our sport seriously.

rupp-certified saladbar wrote:

t94bell wrote:

if you can rip a 3:50 indoor mile, it blurs the line between what your specialty is.

WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

For the Nth time, 3:50i = 3:33-high.

Rupp is a 26:48 10,000 meter runner with probably 26:3x ability. 3:33 is nowhere near that level. No "line" is being blurred.

Well we don't know about that 10K ability yet do we? Chill out. Times can translate to times, but you still have to run the race.